London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026

Was lockdown a waste of time? Study finds stay-at-home order was 'ineffective'

Was lockdown a waste of time? Study finds stay-at-home order was 'ineffective'

Blanket lockdown orders had limited effect on fighting coronavirus in Europe, a bombshell experimental study has suggested.
But closing schools and banning mass gathering did slow the pandemic’s spread across the continent, researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA) found.

They said that relaxing stay-at-home orders and allowing some types of non-essential businesses such as shops to reopen could be the starting point towards moving the UK out of lockdown. The success of these measures, along with other social distancing policies across 30 European countries, were studied by the UAE scientists, who wanted to see which were the most effective at controlling the disease.

They cautioned that the study, which was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London and Public Health England, is experimental.

Banning mass gatherings, along with closing schools and some non-essential businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, were the most effective ways at stopping the spread of Covid-19, they found.

They said that more investigation is needed on the use of face coverings in public, as the current results, which do not necessarily support their widespread use in the community, were ‘too preliminary’.

Dr Julii Brainard, of UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said the researchers were ‘really surprised’ to learn that stay-at-home orders may not be needed to control the outbreak, provided that this did not lead to more mass gatherings.

It was found that these stay-home policies were not linked with a decline in incidences, and that as the number of lock-down days increased, so did the number of cases.

The researchers looked at the number of cases and deaths taken from daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control.

These were compared with the start dates of different measures including the restriction of mass gatherings, the closure of schools and different types of businesses, stay-at-home orders and the wearing of face masks.

Lead researcher Professor Paul Hunter, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said the study shows that school closures in Europe had ‘the greatest association with a subsequent reduction in the spread of the disease’, but it does not clarify the ongoing puzzle of whether children can pass Covid-19 to adults.

He said: ‘And it does not identify which level of school closure has the most impact, whether it is primary, junior, senior school or even higher education.

‘It’s also important to remember that our results are based on total closure, so it is possible that partial school closures could have worthwhile impacts on the spread of infection.’

Banning public and private mass gatherings was another key tool in fighting the spread of the virus.

Professor Hunter noted that the size of the current banned mass gatherings varied between countries and so the importance and impact of the scale of the individual event is still unclear.

Differences in how the countries carried out these policies have ranged from them being an advisory notice in some places, while elsewhere they were orders which were enforced by police with penalties.

The shut-down of non-essential businesses, which included places where people gathered such pubs, leisure centres, restaurants and venues, also had an impact on the spread of infection in each country.

Professor Hunter said: ‘This suggests that keeping some businesses closed, particularly in the hospitality and leisure sector, would have the most impact.

‘However, we also know that while outbreaks of food poisoning are frequently linked with restaurants, outbreaks of other respiratory infections generally in the hospitality sector are fairly rare.’

Dr Joshua Moon, of the University of Sussex Business School, noted that differences in testing rates and strategies in each country would have an impact on the number of cases.

He said the study may indicate that stay-at-home orders could be the first things to be relaxed.

Dr Moon said: ‘We have to remember that decisions like this cannot and should not be made on a single finding.

‘Nor should policy be made based solely upon science – there are many social, economic, political, and moral factors to consider that science simply cannot answer.

‘When it comes to this pandemic, caution is paramount, otherwise we could tip too far and risk a second wave and a return to lockdown.’

Researchers from the University of Newcastle, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Tshwane University of Technology in South Africa were also part of the study team.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
Labour Party Instructs Local Council Groups to Sever Power-Sharing Accords with Green Party Over New Controversial Policy Positions
Institute for Fiscal Studies Warns of Thirty-Five Billion Pound Fiscal Gap Ahead of Chancellor John Healey Upcoming Autumn Budget
House of Lords Backs Landmark Legislative Amendment to Decriminalize Abortion Across England and Wales
United Kingdom Defence Secretary Wes Streeting Travels to Pentagon for High-Level Strategic Talks Amid Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine and United States Policy Shifts
Bank of England and International Monetary Fund Officials Issue Urgent Warnings Regarding Potential Artificial Intelligence Financial Market Shocks
×