London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026

Was lockdown a waste of time? Study finds stay-at-home order was 'ineffective'

Was lockdown a waste of time? Study finds stay-at-home order was 'ineffective'

Blanket lockdown orders had limited effect on fighting coronavirus in Europe, a bombshell experimental study has suggested.
But closing schools and banning mass gathering did slow the pandemic’s spread across the continent, researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA) found.

They said that relaxing stay-at-home orders and allowing some types of non-essential businesses such as shops to reopen could be the starting point towards moving the UK out of lockdown. The success of these measures, along with other social distancing policies across 30 European countries, were studied by the UAE scientists, who wanted to see which were the most effective at controlling the disease.

They cautioned that the study, which was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London and Public Health England, is experimental.

Banning mass gatherings, along with closing schools and some non-essential businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, were the most effective ways at stopping the spread of Covid-19, they found.

They said that more investigation is needed on the use of face coverings in public, as the current results, which do not necessarily support their widespread use in the community, were ‘too preliminary’.

Dr Julii Brainard, of UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said the researchers were ‘really surprised’ to learn that stay-at-home orders may not be needed to control the outbreak, provided that this did not lead to more mass gatherings.

It was found that these stay-home policies were not linked with a decline in incidences, and that as the number of lock-down days increased, so did the number of cases.

The researchers looked at the number of cases and deaths taken from daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control.

These were compared with the start dates of different measures including the restriction of mass gatherings, the closure of schools and different types of businesses, stay-at-home orders and the wearing of face masks.

Lead researcher Professor Paul Hunter, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said the study shows that school closures in Europe had ‘the greatest association with a subsequent reduction in the spread of the disease’, but it does not clarify the ongoing puzzle of whether children can pass Covid-19 to adults.

He said: ‘And it does not identify which level of school closure has the most impact, whether it is primary, junior, senior school or even higher education.

‘It’s also important to remember that our results are based on total closure, so it is possible that partial school closures could have worthwhile impacts on the spread of infection.’

Banning public and private mass gatherings was another key tool in fighting the spread of the virus.

Professor Hunter noted that the size of the current banned mass gatherings varied between countries and so the importance and impact of the scale of the individual event is still unclear.

Differences in how the countries carried out these policies have ranged from them being an advisory notice in some places, while elsewhere they were orders which were enforced by police with penalties.

The shut-down of non-essential businesses, which included places where people gathered such pubs, leisure centres, restaurants and venues, also had an impact on the spread of infection in each country.

Professor Hunter said: ‘This suggests that keeping some businesses closed, particularly in the hospitality and leisure sector, would have the most impact.

‘However, we also know that while outbreaks of food poisoning are frequently linked with restaurants, outbreaks of other respiratory infections generally in the hospitality sector are fairly rare.’

Dr Joshua Moon, of the University of Sussex Business School, noted that differences in testing rates and strategies in each country would have an impact on the number of cases.

He said the study may indicate that stay-at-home orders could be the first things to be relaxed.

Dr Moon said: ‘We have to remember that decisions like this cannot and should not be made on a single finding.

‘Nor should policy be made based solely upon science – there are many social, economic, political, and moral factors to consider that science simply cannot answer.

‘When it comes to this pandemic, caution is paramount, otherwise we could tip too far and risk a second wave and a return to lockdown.’

Researchers from the University of Newcastle, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Tshwane University of Technology in South Africa were also part of the study team.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
Global Critical Mineral Alliances Expand as Western Nations Move to Counter Chinese Supply Dominance
United States Imposes Fifty Percent Tariffs on Mexican Steel and Aluminum Ahead of Trade Pact Review
European Union and China Head Toward Major Trade Conflict Over Clean Technology Exports
United States Economic Growth Severely Downgraded to One Point Six Percent as Stagflation Fears Mount
World Health Organization Warns Central African Ebola Epidemic is Outpacing Containment Efforts
United States Treasury Department Conditions Sanctions Relief on Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Air Defenses Intercept and Destroy United States Military Drone Over Bushehr Province
Iranian Armed Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles Toward Unspecified Targets Prompting Regional Condemnation
United Nations Secretary-General Warns Global Order Facing Highest Level of Conflict Since 1945
Israel Issues Sweeping Evacuation Orders in Southern Lebanon Amid Intensified Hezbollah Conflict
Russia Announces Systemic Military Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Defense and Energy Infrastructure
United States and Iranian Negotiators Reach Draft Agreement to Extend Ceasefire and Resume Nuclear Talks
United Nations Security Council Deeply Divided Over United States Capture of Venezuelan President
US and Iran Exchange Direct Military Strikes Amid Fragile Gulf Ceasefire
World Health Organization Warns of Catastrophic Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo
Russia Threatens New Wave of Strikes on Ukrainian Infrastructure and Embassies
Scientists Warn Atlantic Ocean Currents Could Collapse Faster Than Projected
Anthropic Reaches $900 Billion Valuation in Historic AI Funding Round
Washington Imposes Crippling Sanctions on Iranian Maritime Authority
Japan and the Philippines Initiate Strategic Intelligence-Sharing Pact
Microsoft Deploys Autonomous Computer-Using AI Agents to Global Markets
Anthropic Secures $45 Billion Compute Infrastructure Agreement With SpaceX
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Resigns Amid Administration Shakeup
Micron Technology Crosses Trillion-Dollar Valuation Amid Unprecedented Hardware Demand
Canada and Germany Finalize Historic Long-Term LNG Export Agreement
China Expands International Travel Restrictions on Domestic AI Researchers
Japan Approves Sweeping Overhaul of National Intelligence Apparatus
Global Airlines Scramble Logistics as Middle East Airspace Remains Fractured
Japan's Naphtha Imports Plunge 47 Percent Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
Global Crude Prices Retreat Below $96 as Gulf Tensions Momentarily Ease
Generative AI Outperforms Human Baselines in Landmark Global Creativity Study
NASA Partners With Private Aerospace to Unveil Permanent Lunar Base Architecture
South Korean Equity Markets Surge on Next-Generation Memory Chip Frenzy
×