London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 01, 2025

Sturgeon’s 70-page dossier finds no evidence for vaccine passports

Sturgeon’s 70-page dossier finds no evidence for vaccine passports

Nicola Sturgeon wants to extend vaccine passports in Scotland, and today her government released a 70-page document purporting to show evidence. The snag? There’s not a shred of evidence to show that her vaccine passports are having any effect.

The document, entitled Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update makes a very bold claim: that Scotland’s choice is more vaccine passports or restrictions.

To suppress the virus further we are now faced with a choice. This is to limit social contacts and the risk of infection by limiting social contacts by closing venues, limiting group sizes and advising people not to meet each other. Alternatively we can enable people to meet up in a lower risk way by using certification to reduce the risk that an infectious person will be present in a higher risk setting.

John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy, claims that the “vaccine certification scheme is working well". But the report itself offers no evidence whatsoever to back up this assertion. It actually admits that:

Vaccine uptake has slightly increased since the scheme was announced, although it is not possible to directly attribute rises to the introduction of certification.

Yes, Scotand’s vaccine uptake rose. But strip out kids and we see it rising at a slower rate than England — where, of course, there are no vaccine passports. The report figures from 1 September when it was announced that Scots would need vaccine passports to visit nightclubs, events with more than 500 people indoors or more than 4,000 outdoors and in “sexual entertainment venues”. This took effect on 18 October.

In summary, the document:

1. Admits that vaccine takeup has been the same in Scotland and England, even though England has had no vaccine passports. “The rate of overall increase in first and second doses, has been similar across 4 UK nations.” Quite.

2. Fiddles Scottish figures by including schoolchildren (who are exempt from vaccine passport mandate).“The proportion of those aged 12+ with a first dose rose from 86.0% to 90.5%. The proportion of those aged 12+ with a second dose rose from 77.6% to 82.2%.” Why include figures for children when the passports don’t apply to them? In any event, the 4.6-point rise in Scotland is almost identical to the 4.3-point rise in England: both rises reflect that vaccines were being made available to kids for the first time. Scotland made slightly faster progress with kids.

3. The figure that matters is the first vaccine dose for adults which rose from 91.3 per cent to 92.6 per cent in Scotland over the relevant period, a statistically insignificant 1.3-point rise. In England it rose 1.6 points: from 88.8 per cent to 90.4 per cent. Which, if anything, would suggest that mandating vaccines puts people off the idea. (This is Chris Whitty’s private advice to Sajid Javid: that vaccine passports will get people’s backs up, so are counterproductive when vaccinations are already at such a high level).

4. Admits to the burden that passports place on companies. “Businesses will incur increased costs if certification is expanded.” A recent survey of hospitality businesses found three-quarters would not survive passports without state financial support.

5. Suggests that vaccine passports might heighten awareness of Covid “Including a wider range of settings may also lead to a better understanding of the fact that the pandemic is still with us and continues to present a current threat.” This is, of course, a hypothesis rather than evidence.

6. Presents Scots with a false choice between more restrictions or vaccine passports. “But to suppress the virus further we are now faced with a choice. This is to limit social contacts and the risk of infection by limiting social contacts by closing venues, limiting group sizes and advising people not to meet each other. Alternatively we can enable people to meet up in a lower risk way by using certification to reduce the risk that an infectious person will be present in a higher risk setting”. What about following England, where things seem to be going pretty well?

7. Strikingly, no mention of disparity in vaccine uptake amongst socioeconomic and ethnic groups. A major factor in the vaccine passport argument is that it entrenches already-existing divisions. This is true for England, but an Audit Scotland report showed it’s also true for Scotland — at the end of the summer 12 per cent of white Scots were unvaccinated compared to 33 per cent of black Scots. This information was excluded from Sturgeon’s document, presumably due to lack of space. Here is the relevant chart, for reference:-


The document presents a false choice between lockdown style restrictions like the rule-of-six and vaccine passports. It doesn’t even consider England’s do-neither approach even though Covid rates are identical. Helpfully for ministers — and a sign the decisions been made — the ‘independent’ scientific advisors have already been sent out to Channel 4 News and BBC Scotland to call for more restrictions.

For a document with ‘evidence’ in the title you wouldn’t expect such a reliance on literature reviews, international comment, selectively quoted Sage minutes and stats that don’t support the central argument.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
×