London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025

Jobs 'crisis' twice as bad as previous recession

Jobs 'crisis' twice as bad as previous recession

Employers in Britain are planning more than twice as many redundancies than they did at the height of the last recession, new figures show.

About 180,000 job cuts were planned from January to March 2009, while 380,000 were planned from May to July this year.

Completed redundancies could reach 735,000 this autumn, researchers say.

The figures were obtained by an Institute for Employment Studies (IES) Freedom of Information request.

Social distancing measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 brought large parts of the UK economy to a standstill, forcing workers to stay at home, closing shops and bringing transport to a halt.

As a result, many businesses have been forced to consider reducing their workforces by making employees redundant.

Employers in England, Scotland and Wales must notify the Insolvency Service if they plan to make 20 or more workers redundant in any single "establishment" using a form called HR1.

This information is not usually published, but on 8 September a Freedom of Information request by the BBC revealed that employers had listed more than 380,000 positions as at risk between May and July 2020.



The IES has now obtained and analysed data stretching back as far as 2008.

This shows that the current redundancy wave is more than double the previous three-monthly peak of 180,000 from January to March 2009.

Then the crisis, which had begun in the finance industry, was affecting most of the economy - and forcing many employers to reduce their staff.

"Comparing what is happening now with what was happening in the last recession shows us we are experiencing a jobs crisis unlike anything we have seen before," said Tony Wilson, Director of the IES.

The IES is calling for extra support for viable firms to help them retain staff, as well as training and advice to help those who lose their jobs find new employment rapidly.

A government spokesperson said: "Supporting jobs is an absolute priority which is why we've set out a comprehensive 'Plan for Jobs' to protect, create and support jobs across the UK by providing significant, targeted support where it is needed the most."

Government measures include the £2bn "kickstart scheme" to encourage employers to create new training placements and apprenticeships, extra work coaches in job centres, and a £1,000 incentive to encourage employers to bring staff back from furlough.


Will these planned redundancies be completed?


Because they are filed at the start of the redundancy process, HR1 forms give an early indication of what is happening in the labour market.

The HR1 redundancy figures don't pick up employers cutting fewer than 20 jobs, so the final total of redundancies is usually higher.

The Office for National Statistics also publishes a redundancy count based on the Labour Force Survey, which is used to calculate the monthly unemployment rate.

This is always published a few months after the data is gathered, so it hasn't yet picked up a big spike in redundancies or unemployment.



However, Labour Force Survey redundancy figures have been around 20% higher than HR1 figures in recent years.

On this basis, the IES estimates that 445,000 jobs could be made redundant between July and September, considerably worse than the three-month peak in the previous recession.

During that recession, however, actual redundancies were 80% higher than notified redundancies - which could lead to as many as 735,000 positions being cut at the height of the coronavirus crisis.

However, companies sometimes announce plans redundancies which they don't actually make, because circumstances change.

Early 2019, for example, saw a big spike in redundancy plans which were never completed. Mr Wilson believes they could have been linked to fears of a no-deal Brexit, which did not happen.

The 2018 spike could be linked to the collapse of the construction company Carillion, which had a lesser impact on jobs than initially feared.

Companies in Northern Ireland file HR1 forms with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and they are not included in these figures.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK and Vietnam Sign Landmark Migration Deal to Fast-Track Returns of Irregular Arrivals
UK Drug-Pricing Overhaul Essential for Life-Sciences Ambition, Says GSK Chief
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Temporarily Leave the UK Amid Their Parents’ Royal Fallout
UK Weighs Early End to Oil and Gas Windfall Tax as Reeves Seeks Investment Commitments
UK Retail Inflation Slows as Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since Spring
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance After Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Reform UK’s Lee Anderson Admits to 'Gaming' Benefits System While Advocating Crackdown
United States and South Korea Conclude Major Trade Accord Worth $350 Billion
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
Vice President Vance to Headline Turning Point USA Campus Event at Ole Miss
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
Bill Gates at 70: “I Have a Real Fear of Artificial Intelligence – and Also Regret”
Elon Musk Unveils Grokipedia: An AI-Driven Alternative to Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia Unveils Vision for First-Ever "Sky Stadium" Suspended Over Desert Floor
Amazon Announces 14 000 Corporate Job Cuts as AI Investment Accelerates
UK Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since March, Food Leads the Decline
London Stock Exchange Group ADR (LNSTY) Earns Zacks Rank #1 Upgrade on Rising Earnings Outlook
Soap legend Tony Adams, long-time star of Crossroads, dies at 84
Rachel Reeves Signals Tax Increases Ahead of November Budget Amid £20-50 Billion Fiscal Gap
NatWest Past Gains of 314% Spotlight Opportunity — But Some Key Risks Remain
UK Launches ‘Golden Age’ of Nuclear with £38 Billion Sizewell C Approval
UK Announces £1.08 Billion Budget for Offshore Wind Auction to Boost 2030 Capacity
UK Seeks Steel Alliance with EU and US to Counter China’s Over-Capacity
UK Struggles to Balance China as Both Strategic Threat and Valued Trading Partner
Argentina’s Markets Surge as Milei’s Party Secures Major Win
British Journalist Sami Hamdi Detained by U.S. Authorities After Visa Revocation Amid Israel-Gaza Commentary
King Charles Unveils UK’s First LGBT+ Armed Forces Memorial at National Memorial Arboretum
At ninety-two and re-elected: Paul Biya secures eighth term in Cameroon amid unrest
Racist Incidents Against UK Nurses Surge by 55%
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Cites Shared Concerns With Trump Administration as Foundation for Early US-UK Trade Deal
Essentra plc: A Closer Look at a UK ‘Penny Stock’ Opportunity Amid Market Weakness
U.S. and China Near Deal to Avert Rare-Earth Export Controls Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
Justin time: Justin Herbert Shields Madison Beer with Impressive Reflex at Lakers Game
Russia’s President Putin Declares Burevestnik Nuclear Cruise Missile Ready for Deployment
Giuffre’s Memoir Alleges Maxwell Claimed Sexual Act with Clooney
House Republicans Move to Strip NYC Mayoral Front-Runner Zohran Mamdani of U.S. Citizenship
Record-High Spoiled Ballots Signal Voter Discontent in Ireland’s 2025 Presidential Election
Philippines’ Taal Volcano Erupts Overnight with 2.4 km Ash Plume
Albania’s Virtual AI 'Minister' Diella Set to 'Birth' Eighty-Three Digital Assistants for MPs
Tesla Unveils Vision for Optimus V3 as ‘Biggest Product of All Time’, Including Surgical Capabilities
Francis Ford Coppola Auctions Luxury Watches After Self-Financed Film Flop
Convicted Sex Offender Mistakenly Freed by UK Prison Service Arrested in London
United States and China Begin Constructive Trade Negotiations Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over Drug-Trafficking Allegations
Miss USA Crowns Nebraska’s Audrey Eckert Amid Leadership Overhaul
‘I Am Not Done’: Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 White House Run
NBA Faces Integrity Crisis After Mass Arrests in Gambling Scandal
Swift Heist at the Louvre Sees Eight French Crown Jewels Stolen in Under Seven Minutes
U.S. Halts Trade Talks with Canada After Ontario Ad Using Reagan Voice Triggers Diplomatic Fallout
Microsoft AI CEO: ‘We’re making an AI that you can trust your kids to use’ — but can Microsoft rebuild its own trust before fixing the industry’s?
×