Around 650 prisoners in England and Wales will leave jail on Tuesday after serving no more than a third of their sentences, as the government expands early release to ease overcrowding. The scheme is creating space, but probation staff and victims’ organisations warn of pressures beyond prison gates.

The third phase covers sentences of up to three years and two months, replacing release halfway through with an earlier move onto licence in the community. At least 1,350 offenders have been released since 1 October; officials expect at least 2,500 by year-end. Successive batches will cover longer sentences, reaching those exceeding 12 years next June.

Eligible offences include affray, which carries a three-year maximum, burglary and fraud. Some prisoners convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-end firearms offences could qualify. More than 70 offences are excluded, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences; life sentences are also excluded.

Figures published on Monday recorded 86,982 prisoners and 2,076 spare places, about 500 more available spaces than immediately before the programme began. That demonstrates some relief, rather than a lasting resolution of the capacity crisis.

Released prisoners spend two-thirds of their sentence on licence. They should typically expect electronic tagging and other monitoring conditions during the second third. Probation officers oversee rehabilitation programmes and compliance with restrictions, which can prohibit contact with victims or entry to particular areas.

Refuge, which supports domestic abuse survivors, said last month that perpetrators were among those released. Napo, the probation union, says the scheme has placed enormous strain on members. Its strike ballot over pay and conditions is due to conclude with a result on Friday.

The Ministry of Justice calls its 5% pay offer fair, noting acceptance by two other unions. Napo sought 12% to address earnings lost through cuts since 2010. The ministry also points to £700m for probation, recruitment of 1,300 additional officers and artificial intelligence tools intended to reduce workloads.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has voiced concern that dangerous offenders are leaving before completing sentences or rehabilitation. A Conservative early-release programme freed more than 10,000 prisoners between October 2023 and September 2024.

No recall figures specific to the current scheme have been published. Across the system, 12,338 offenders were recalled between April and June, up 12% annually but below the preceding quarter. Rehabilitation experts say recalls more commonly concern missed appointments or residence requirements; around a fifth involve a new offence. The extra prison capacity is measurable; the scheme’s record on compliance and reoffending remains unresolved.