London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jun 28, 2026

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus cases in Europe, but what's the evidence for that?
Talk of a second wave is the stuff of nightmares, conjuring up images of another deadly surge of infections.

This is what happened with Spanish Flu after the First World War when a second wave proved deadlier than the first.

But the truth is many experts try to avoid the phrase altogether.

Margaret Harris, from the World Health Organization, has made clear that what we have seen is "one big wave" that is making its way across the globe.

Some countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, have been better than others at flattening it from the start by stopping the virus spreading by using comprehensive testing and tracing regimes.

But others - and the UK, France, Spain and Italy are examples of this - have just managed to flatten it partway through the wave by introducing lockdowns.

This was because they did not have such sophisticated infectious disease systems in place to control the virus.

Thanks to investment, they are in a much stronger position now and have been able to release lockdown, while still trying to suppress the virus wave through testing and tracing.

But there are signs cases are picking up, especially in Spain.

But rather than this being a second wave - or the start of one - perhaps we are better off thinking of these as the existing wave bursting through the defences.

Prof Paul Hunter, a Covid expert at Norwich Medical School, says for it to be a second wave the virus would have to have gone away completely, so he prefers to call it a "resurgence".

And really it should come as no surprise that this happens in highly-populated areas like Western Europe.

Containing the virus relies on good systems for detecting cases and for the public to play its part by social distancing, and engaging with the test and trace systems.

Clearly any weakness leaves countries susceptible, particularly to this virus which can be transmitted even if people are not displaying symptoms.

However, while cases may be going up, it is worth noting they are nowhere near the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.

And bear in mind that the peaks seen in the charts above for all the countries - bar maybe Germany which had widespread testing in place quickly - are a gross underestimate of the true scale of infections.

That's because there was not widespread testing available at the time.

In the UK alone it is estimated that there were 100,000 cases a day at the peak - 20 times more than the testing in place at the time suggested.

The greater access to testing there is, the more likely you are to pick up mild infections.

If you only test patients in hospital - as was largely the case in the UK until late April - you are going to miss a lot of cases.

What is also clear is that infection levels vary greatly within countries.

There are areas where the virus is virtually non-existent, while in others it is lurking menacingly.

In the UK there have been flare-ups in Leicester and - to a lesser extent - Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham.

A similar picture emerges when you look at the data for Spain.

Even Germany is not immune to this, with local lockdowns announced in recent weeks.

There are many reasons why this is happening.

There are signs young people are spreading it in certain areas.

Certainly, the young are less likely to get extremely sick, which could make them more relaxed about the need for social distancing.

But it could also be true that the virus has always been circulating in these groups, it is just that more widespread testing is picking it up.

There also seems to be a link to deprivation - where people live in close proximity the likelihood of transmission increases.

Whatever the reasons behind the local flare-ups, what is certain is that they will continue for the foreseeable future.

Prof Keith Neal, an expert in infectious diseases from University of Nottingham, says these spikes will become a way of life, but they are in "no way" a second wave.

He says countries across Europe are "learning to live" with the virus by taking precautions such as social distancing and wearing masks.

He believes that if people remain vigilant, coupled with the improved treatments that are being found and greater testing, the scale of deaths seen during the peaks will hopefully not be repeated.

There is a good chance, it seems, that what will be seen are the ripples from the first wave rather than a big second wave.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Government Confirms Further Medicine Price Concessions for Community Pharmacies in June
British Chambers of Commerce Calls for Public Procurement Reform to Boost Regional Growth
Thousands Mark Armed Forces Day Across the United Kingdom With National Parades and Flypasts
Man Arrested in Ealing on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After Vehicle Ramming Incident Injures Five
Cambridge South Station Opens With £250 Million Investment to Strengthen Life Sciences Corridor
UK Heat-Health Alerts Extended Across England as High Temperatures Persist
Thames Water and Energy Operators Warn of Peak Demand Risks During UK Heatwave
Government Conference Highlights Push for Evidence-Led Policy Across UK Public Sector
Insolvency Service Reports Improved Confidence in UK Insolvency System
Security Industry Authority Finds Widespread Safety Failures in UK Night-Time Economy
Nigel Farage Expands Anti-WHO Campaign Into United States With New Lobbying Structure
Home Secretary Seema Mahmood Unveils New Safe Routes Plan for Asylum Seekers
UK Government Warns of Peak Electricity and Water Pressure Amid Ongoing Heatwave
New Nuclear Plant in Wales Named Gwyndod Power Station as Energy Strategy Advances
UK Announces First Major Hydropower Projects in Four Decades to Expand Renewable Capacity
Thirteen Men Charged in Major UK Sexual Abuse Case as Investigation Continues
UK Launches Cross-Sector Climate Security Taskforce Linking Environment and National Security
UN Secretary-General António Guterres Calls for Urgent Global Methane Emissions Cuts in London
World Bank Approves $1 Billion UK-Backed Financing Package for Ukraine Recovery
UK Pledges Emergency Aid and Rescue Team Deployment to Earthquake-Hit Venezuela
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75 Percent for Fourth Straight Meeting
Record-Breaking Heatwave Puts Strain on UK Health Services and Energy Networks
London Ambulance Service Sees Record Emergency Demand as Heatwave Intensifies
British Chambers of Commerce Warns of Prolonged Weak Investment Climate Through 2027
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates as Inflation Risks Persist
UK Construction Sector Faces One Percent Contraction Amid Cost and Investment Pressures
Former DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Convicted of Sexual Offences
Church of England Appoints Dr Linsay Cunningham to Lead Faith and Public Life Division
UK Armed Forces Day Marked Nationwide With Events From Aberdeen to the Scilly Isles
Rising Tensions in Edinburgh Prompt Joint Warning From Scottish Local Government Leaders
UK Construction Sector Forecast to Contract One Percent in 2026 on Cost Pressures
UK Parliament Backs 87 Percent Emissions Cut as Government Deepens Electrification Drive
British Chambers of Commerce Forecast Weak UK Growth as Investment and Demand Slow
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75 Percent Amid Energy and Inflation Uncertainty
London Ambulance Service Reports Record Surge in Life-Threatening Emergency Calls During Heatwave
UK Parliament Approves Legally Binding 87 Percent Emissions Cut Target by 2040
United Kingdom Records Third Consecutive Day of Record June Heat as Europe Faces Worsening Heatwave
Robert Jenrick Defends £5 Million Donation to Nigel Farage Amid Political Scrutiny
Plymouth Museum The Box Wins 2026 Art Fund Museum of the Year Award
UK Government Faces Backlash Over Plans to Use Former Military Sites for Asylum Accommodation
Labour Party Faces Pressure Over Cabinet Stability as Senior Figures Clash on Policy Direction
Heathrow Airport Forecasts Passenger Decline in 2026 as Costs and Climate Disruption Mount
UK Energy Regulator Approves Expansion of Long-Duration Storage to Boost Power System Resilience
Crown Estate Reports Third Consecutive Year of £1 Billion Profit as Debate Over Royal Finances Intensifies
Teenager Charged With Murder in Wales Following Death of 14-Year-Old Boy
Nottingham University Hospitals Maternity Failures Trigger Calls for Public Inquiry Into Patient Safety
EasyJet Rejects £4.9 Billion Takeover Offer From Castlelake but Keeps Door Open for Further Talks
Record Heatwave Triggers UK Transport and Infrastructure Strain as Heathrow Revises Passenger Forecast Downward
Ofgem Approves Sixteen Long-Duration Energy Storage Projects to Strengthen UK Grid Stability
Labour Government Faces Internal Tensions Over Cabinet Decisions and Net Zero Policy Direction
×