London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus cases in Europe, but what's the evidence for that?
Talk of a second wave is the stuff of nightmares, conjuring up images of another deadly surge of infections.

This is what happened with Spanish Flu after the First World War when a second wave proved deadlier than the first.

But the truth is many experts try to avoid the phrase altogether.

Margaret Harris, from the World Health Organization, has made clear that what we have seen is "one big wave" that is making its way across the globe.

Some countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, have been better than others at flattening it from the start by stopping the virus spreading by using comprehensive testing and tracing regimes.

But others - and the UK, France, Spain and Italy are examples of this - have just managed to flatten it partway through the wave by introducing lockdowns.

This was because they did not have such sophisticated infectious disease systems in place to control the virus.

Thanks to investment, they are in a much stronger position now and have been able to release lockdown, while still trying to suppress the virus wave through testing and tracing.

But there are signs cases are picking up, especially in Spain.

But rather than this being a second wave - or the start of one - perhaps we are better off thinking of these as the existing wave bursting through the defences.

Prof Paul Hunter, a Covid expert at Norwich Medical School, says for it to be a second wave the virus would have to have gone away completely, so he prefers to call it a "resurgence".

And really it should come as no surprise that this happens in highly-populated areas like Western Europe.

Containing the virus relies on good systems for detecting cases and for the public to play its part by social distancing, and engaging with the test and trace systems.

Clearly any weakness leaves countries susceptible, particularly to this virus which can be transmitted even if people are not displaying symptoms.

However, while cases may be going up, it is worth noting they are nowhere near the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.

And bear in mind that the peaks seen in the charts above for all the countries - bar maybe Germany which had widespread testing in place quickly - are a gross underestimate of the true scale of infections.

That's because there was not widespread testing available at the time.

In the UK alone it is estimated that there were 100,000 cases a day at the peak - 20 times more than the testing in place at the time suggested.

The greater access to testing there is, the more likely you are to pick up mild infections.

If you only test patients in hospital - as was largely the case in the UK until late April - you are going to miss a lot of cases.

What is also clear is that infection levels vary greatly within countries.

There are areas where the virus is virtually non-existent, while in others it is lurking menacingly.

In the UK there have been flare-ups in Leicester and - to a lesser extent - Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham.

A similar picture emerges when you look at the data for Spain.

Even Germany is not immune to this, with local lockdowns announced in recent weeks.

There are many reasons why this is happening.

There are signs young people are spreading it in certain areas.

Certainly, the young are less likely to get extremely sick, which could make them more relaxed about the need for social distancing.

But it could also be true that the virus has always been circulating in these groups, it is just that more widespread testing is picking it up.

There also seems to be a link to deprivation - where people live in close proximity the likelihood of transmission increases.

Whatever the reasons behind the local flare-ups, what is certain is that they will continue for the foreseeable future.

Prof Keith Neal, an expert in infectious diseases from University of Nottingham, says these spikes will become a way of life, but they are in "no way" a second wave.

He says countries across Europe are "learning to live" with the virus by taking precautions such as social distancing and wearing masks.

He believes that if people remain vigilant, coupled with the improved treatments that are being found and greater testing, the scale of deaths seen during the peaks will hopefully not be repeated.

There is a good chance, it seems, that what will be seen are the ripples from the first wave rather than a big second wave.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
Seven Arrested Near RAF Base as UK Authorities Respond to Protest Activity
Economic Pressures Mount as Analysts Warn UK Growth Is Being Constrained by Policy Burdens
UK Green Party’s Push for Church-State Separation Sparks Debate Over National Identity
Strategic Island Emerges as Growing Challenge for United States and United Kingdom Defense Planning
Pepsi Pulls Sponsorship from UK Festival Following Backlash Linked to Kanye West
Signs Emerge of Declining Enthusiasm for Social Media in the United Kingdom
Security Alert Raised Ahead of Meghan Markle’s Planned Visit to Australia
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
Woman Linked to UK’s First All-Female Terror Plot Faces Deportation
×