London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Feb 22, 2026

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus cases in Europe, but what's the evidence for that?
Talk of a second wave is the stuff of nightmares, conjuring up images of another deadly surge of infections.

This is what happened with Spanish Flu after the First World War when a second wave proved deadlier than the first.

But the truth is many experts try to avoid the phrase altogether.

Margaret Harris, from the World Health Organization, has made clear that what we have seen is "one big wave" that is making its way across the globe.

Some countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, have been better than others at flattening it from the start by stopping the virus spreading by using comprehensive testing and tracing regimes.

But others - and the UK, France, Spain and Italy are examples of this - have just managed to flatten it partway through the wave by introducing lockdowns.

This was because they did not have such sophisticated infectious disease systems in place to control the virus.

Thanks to investment, they are in a much stronger position now and have been able to release lockdown, while still trying to suppress the virus wave through testing and tracing.

But there are signs cases are picking up, especially in Spain.

But rather than this being a second wave - or the start of one - perhaps we are better off thinking of these as the existing wave bursting through the defences.

Prof Paul Hunter, a Covid expert at Norwich Medical School, says for it to be a second wave the virus would have to have gone away completely, so he prefers to call it a "resurgence".

And really it should come as no surprise that this happens in highly-populated areas like Western Europe.

Containing the virus relies on good systems for detecting cases and for the public to play its part by social distancing, and engaging with the test and trace systems.

Clearly any weakness leaves countries susceptible, particularly to this virus which can be transmitted even if people are not displaying symptoms.

However, while cases may be going up, it is worth noting they are nowhere near the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.

And bear in mind that the peaks seen in the charts above for all the countries - bar maybe Germany which had widespread testing in place quickly - are a gross underestimate of the true scale of infections.

That's because there was not widespread testing available at the time.

In the UK alone it is estimated that there were 100,000 cases a day at the peak - 20 times more than the testing in place at the time suggested.

The greater access to testing there is, the more likely you are to pick up mild infections.

If you only test patients in hospital - as was largely the case in the UK until late April - you are going to miss a lot of cases.

What is also clear is that infection levels vary greatly within countries.

There are areas where the virus is virtually non-existent, while in others it is lurking menacingly.

In the UK there have been flare-ups in Leicester and - to a lesser extent - Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham.

A similar picture emerges when you look at the data for Spain.

Even Germany is not immune to this, with local lockdowns announced in recent weeks.

There are many reasons why this is happening.

There are signs young people are spreading it in certain areas.

Certainly, the young are less likely to get extremely sick, which could make them more relaxed about the need for social distancing.

But it could also be true that the virus has always been circulating in these groups, it is just that more widespread testing is picking it up.

There also seems to be a link to deprivation - where people live in close proximity the likelihood of transmission increases.

Whatever the reasons behind the local flare-ups, what is certain is that they will continue for the foreseeable future.

Prof Keith Neal, an expert in infectious diseases from University of Nottingham, says these spikes will become a way of life, but they are in "no way" a second wave.

He says countries across Europe are "learning to live" with the virus by taking precautions such as social distancing and wearing masks.

He believes that if people remain vigilant, coupled with the improved treatments that are being found and greater testing, the scale of deaths seen during the peaks will hopefully not be repeated.

There is a good chance, it seems, that what will be seen are the ripples from the first wave rather than a big second wave.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Government Weighs Removing Prince Andrew from Line of Succession After Arrest
Prince Andrew’s Arrest in UK Rekindles Scrutiny Over US Handling of Epstein Records
Trump’s Strategic Warning to UK Over Chagos Islands Deal Sparks Diplomatic Whiplash
Starmer Government Postpones Local Elections Affecting 4.5 Million Voters
UK Economy Remains Fragile Despite Recent Upturn in Headline Indicators
UK Businesses Face Fresh Uncertainty Following US Tariff Ruling
Reform UK’s Senior Figures Face Scrutiny Over Remarks on Women and Family Policy
UK Electric Vehicle Drive Threatened by Shortage of 44,000 Qualified Technicians
University of Kentucky Trustees Advance Academic Reforms and Approve Coliseum Plaza Purchase
Boris Johnson Calls for Immediate Deployment of UK Troops to Support Ukraine
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
North Korea's capital experiences a significant construction boom with the development of a new city district dubbed 'Pyonghattan'.
New electric vehicle charging service eliminates waiting times
Vox Populi confronts Justin Trudeau at Davos over vaccination policies
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki ENDS support for Ukrainian citizens:
The mayor of Rotherham in Britain
One day after ex-Prince Andrew's arrest, British police are searching his former home, while U.K. lawmakers will consider introducing legislation to remove him from the line of royal succession
Vandana Shiva reminding the world that Bill Gates did not invent anything.
Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni highlights record employment and economic growth
UK Confirms Preferential U.S. Trading Terms Will Continue After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
U.S. and U.K. to Hold Talks on Diego Garcia as Iran Objects to Potential Military Use
UK Officials Weigh Possible Changes to Prince Andrew’s Position in Line of Succession Amid Ongoing Scrutiny
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Cuba's Humanitarian Crisis: A Tightening Noose
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
United Kingdom Denies U.S. Access to Military Base for Potential Iran Strike
British Co-founder of ASOS falls to his death from Pattaya apartment
Early 2026 Data Suggests Tentative Recovery for UK Businesses and Households
UK Introduces Digital-First Passport Rules for Dual Citizens in Border Control Overhaul
Unable to Access Live Financial Data for January UK Surplus Report
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
Nordic Fracture: How Criminal Scandals and Toxic Ties are Dismantling the Norwegian Crown
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
×