London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jul 26, 2026

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

What's the evidence Europe is having a 'second wave'?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus cases in Europe, but what's the evidence for that?
Talk of a second wave is the stuff of nightmares, conjuring up images of another deadly surge of infections.

This is what happened with Spanish Flu after the First World War when a second wave proved deadlier than the first.

But the truth is many experts try to avoid the phrase altogether.

Margaret Harris, from the World Health Organization, has made clear that what we have seen is "one big wave" that is making its way across the globe.

Some countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, have been better than others at flattening it from the start by stopping the virus spreading by using comprehensive testing and tracing regimes.

But others - and the UK, France, Spain and Italy are examples of this - have just managed to flatten it partway through the wave by introducing lockdowns.

This was because they did not have such sophisticated infectious disease systems in place to control the virus.

Thanks to investment, they are in a much stronger position now and have been able to release lockdown, while still trying to suppress the virus wave through testing and tracing.

But there are signs cases are picking up, especially in Spain.

But rather than this being a second wave - or the start of one - perhaps we are better off thinking of these as the existing wave bursting through the defences.

Prof Paul Hunter, a Covid expert at Norwich Medical School, says for it to be a second wave the virus would have to have gone away completely, so he prefers to call it a "resurgence".

And really it should come as no surprise that this happens in highly-populated areas like Western Europe.

Containing the virus relies on good systems for detecting cases and for the public to play its part by social distancing, and engaging with the test and trace systems.

Clearly any weakness leaves countries susceptible, particularly to this virus which can be transmitted even if people are not displaying symptoms.

However, while cases may be going up, it is worth noting they are nowhere near the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.

And bear in mind that the peaks seen in the charts above for all the countries - bar maybe Germany which had widespread testing in place quickly - are a gross underestimate of the true scale of infections.

That's because there was not widespread testing available at the time.

In the UK alone it is estimated that there were 100,000 cases a day at the peak - 20 times more than the testing in place at the time suggested.

The greater access to testing there is, the more likely you are to pick up mild infections.

If you only test patients in hospital - as was largely the case in the UK until late April - you are going to miss a lot of cases.

What is also clear is that infection levels vary greatly within countries.

There are areas where the virus is virtually non-existent, while in others it is lurking menacingly.

In the UK there have been flare-ups in Leicester and - to a lesser extent - Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham.

A similar picture emerges when you look at the data for Spain.

Even Germany is not immune to this, with local lockdowns announced in recent weeks.

There are many reasons why this is happening.

There are signs young people are spreading it in certain areas.

Certainly, the young are less likely to get extremely sick, which could make them more relaxed about the need for social distancing.

But it could also be true that the virus has always been circulating in these groups, it is just that more widespread testing is picking it up.

There also seems to be a link to deprivation - where people live in close proximity the likelihood of transmission increases.

Whatever the reasons behind the local flare-ups, what is certain is that they will continue for the foreseeable future.

Prof Keith Neal, an expert in infectious diseases from University of Nottingham, says these spikes will become a way of life, but they are in "no way" a second wave.

He says countries across Europe are "learning to live" with the virus by taking precautions such as social distancing and wearing masks.

He believes that if people remain vigilant, coupled with the improved treatments that are being found and greater testing, the scale of deaths seen during the peaks will hopefully not be repeated.

There is a good chance, it seems, that what will be seen are the ripples from the first wave rather than a big second wave.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
Autopsy Finds No Violence in Death of Epstein-Linked Model Scout
Indian Education Minister Resigns After Cockroach Youth Protests
California Desert Data-Centre Plan Stalls as Water and Power Disputes Mount
Northern Ireland Border Security Tightened After Military-Grade Explosive Interception
British Hospitality Sector Targets Summer Visitors Through Regional Promotions
England River Access Debate Intensifies After New Data Shows Limited Public Access
Royal Navy Strengthens Maritime Vigilance Amid Rising Security Concerns
UK Education Department Expands Mental Health Support for Young People Entering Work
UK Tourism Industry Launches Summer Campaigns to Boost Domestic Travel
North England Transport Plans Advance to Support Industrial Growth
Financial Markets Watch New Government’s Economic Strategy as Investors Assess Fiscal Risks
Royal Navy Continues Monitoring Russian Naval Activity Near UK Waters
UK Care Workers May Receive Immigration Exemptions Under Proposed Visa Changes
Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Begins Emergency Talks to Address NHS Staffing Shortages
UK Banks Launch High-Interest Savings Offers to Attract Household Deposits
North Sea Oil Drilling Projects Face Delays After Offshore Equipment Accident
Cairngorms Wildfire Highlights Growing Pressure on UK Emergency Services
UK Government Borrowing Plans Put Pressure on Ten-Year Gilt Markets
Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier HMS Prince of Wales Returns After NATO Northern Flank Mission
Metropolitan Police Opens Criminal Investigation Into Reform UK Political Donations
Scottish Government Requests Military Support as Cairngorms Wildfire Forces Emergency Response
Andy Burnham Takes Office as UK Prime Minister and Unveils New Cabinet Team
War, Youth Revolt and the Global Struggle for Control
War, Power and the Rising Price of Political Decisions
High Street Sales Suffer Sharpest Summer Decline in Five Years
Wales Approves Higher Taxes on Second Homes and Long-Term Empty Properties
Environment Agency Imposes Record £150 Million Penalty on Water Companies
UK Competition Watchdog Blocks U.S. Takeover of Cambridge Chip Designer
Scotland Unveils Land Reform Bill to Expand Renewable Energy Projects
Northern Ireland Secures £500 Million Technology Investment for Belfast Cybersecurity Hub
NHS Rolls Out AI Triage System Across Major Hospitals in England
UK Strengthens North Sea Naval Cooperation With European Allies
UK Chancellor Commits £7 Billion to Accelerate Manchester-Leeds Rail Link
Bank of England Signals Interest Rate Cuts After Inflation Falls Below Target
Badenoch Rejects Grant Shapps' Bid to Return as Conservative Candidate
BAE Chief Warns Britain Has Underestimated the Risk of War
Burnham Rules Out New Scottish Independence Referendum in First Talks With Swinney
UK Government Strengthens Northern Economic Agenda Through Manchester Headquarters and Regional Partnerships
United Kingdom Opens New Furness Peninsula Coastal Route Under King Charles the Third England Coast Path
England Reduces Business Costs for Hospitality Sector Through New Relief Package
United Kingdom Allocates Seven Point Three Million Pounds for Zero-Emission Aviation Research
United Kingdom Begins Restoration Works on Portishead Railway Line After Six Decades Without Passenger Services
United States Tariff Measures Create New Trade Challenges for United Kingdom and European Union Businesses
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Meets Scottish and Welsh Leaders to Promote Regional Growth Cooperation
United Kingdom Government Announces Twenty Percent Business Rates Cut for Pubs, Clubs, and Music Venues
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Opens Manchester Government Headquarters to Shift Decision-Making Away From Westminster
United Kingdom Defence Ministry Says Armed Forces Ready After Iran Accuses London Over US Military Strikes
United Kingdom Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent as Prime Minister Andy Burnham Gains Economic Breathing Room
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
×