London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Mar 14, 2026

Ukraine, inflation fears pummel US stocks but oil surges

Ukraine, inflation fears pummel US stocks but oil surges

With Brent touching $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $93.78, talk of $100 oil no longer seems far fetched.

Stocks dropped, while investors sought safety in Treasuries as the U.S. warned Russia could take offensive military action against Ukraine as early as next week.

Risk assets added to weekly losses as the U.K. and U.S. advised citizens to leave Ukraine as tensions with Russia rise. Oil spiked higher as a Russian attack could lead to harsh sanctions from the U.S. Russia has repeatedly rejected charges it plans to invade Ukraine.

The S&P 500 fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 3%, following Thursday’s steep declines amid bets on faster Federal Reserve tightening. Treasuries caught bids, with the 10-year yield sinking 11 basis points to about 1.92%. Oil climbed, with brent crude hitting $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

For months, the U.S. has been warning European allies that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, massing almost 130,000 troops near the border and staging the largest joint military drills in years in neighboring Belarus. The U.S. has warned of debilitating economic sanctions if Russia attacks, while the Kremlin says NATO expanding further east or deploying weapons in Ukraine are red lines.


A potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could not only disrupt crude supplies but also may spark retaliatory sanctions by the U.S. Oil prices have soared in recent weeks on speculation that demand will outpace supply as the global economy rebounds from the pandemic.

“The Russia/Ukraine news delivered another body-blow to markets, which were already reeling from stubborn inflation numbers and uber hawkish comments from Fed officials,” Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer for Cornerstone Wealth, wrote in a note. “We may have more downside risk over the coming weeks as markets react to headlines”

Friday’s selloff comes a day after a strong inflation reading and comments from a Federal Reserve official sparked a rout in equities and bonds. Odds increased for faster rate increases, with some traders speculating a hike may come even before the next regularly scheduled meeting in March. Those worries were effectively ended Friday when the Fed signaled it would go ahead with the last of its bond purchases before the program ends next month. The central bank has said it won’t raise until after the buys are over.

Inflation concerns weighed on U.S. consumer sentiment, which declined further in early February to a fresh decade low as views about personal finances deteriorated. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 61.7, the lowest since October 2011, from 67.2 in January. Consumers expect an inflation rate of 5% over the next year, up from last month’s reading of 4.9% and the highest since 2008.

“Investors are worried that the economy is also slowing just at the worst time, just as the Fed is about to raise interest rates, which could threaten the health of this expansion and bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “Add to it the geopolitical tensions and I think it’s very good reasons why we now have the volatility that we do.”

For more market analysis, read our MLIV blog.

Here are the main market moves:


Stocks


* The S&P 500 fell 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.6%

Currencies


* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $1.1341
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3551
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 115.31 per dollar

Bonds


* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 1.92%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.54%

Commodities


* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.3% to $93.78 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.5% to $1,864.60 an ounce

–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Akshay Chinchalkar and Robert Brand.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
×