London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025

Ukraine, inflation fears pummel US stocks but oil surges

Ukraine, inflation fears pummel US stocks but oil surges

With Brent touching $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $93.78, talk of $100 oil no longer seems far fetched.

Stocks dropped, while investors sought safety in Treasuries as the U.S. warned Russia could take offensive military action against Ukraine as early as next week.

Risk assets added to weekly losses as the U.K. and U.S. advised citizens to leave Ukraine as tensions with Russia rise. Oil spiked higher as a Russian attack could lead to harsh sanctions from the U.S. Russia has repeatedly rejected charges it plans to invade Ukraine.

The S&P 500 fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 3%, following Thursday’s steep declines amid bets on faster Federal Reserve tightening. Treasuries caught bids, with the 10-year yield sinking 11 basis points to about 1.92%. Oil climbed, with brent crude hitting $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

For months, the U.S. has been warning European allies that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, massing almost 130,000 troops near the border and staging the largest joint military drills in years in neighboring Belarus. The U.S. has warned of debilitating economic sanctions if Russia attacks, while the Kremlin says NATO expanding further east or deploying weapons in Ukraine are red lines.


A potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could not only disrupt crude supplies but also may spark retaliatory sanctions by the U.S. Oil prices have soared in recent weeks on speculation that demand will outpace supply as the global economy rebounds from the pandemic.

“The Russia/Ukraine news delivered another body-blow to markets, which were already reeling from stubborn inflation numbers and uber hawkish comments from Fed officials,” Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer for Cornerstone Wealth, wrote in a note. “We may have more downside risk over the coming weeks as markets react to headlines”

Friday’s selloff comes a day after a strong inflation reading and comments from a Federal Reserve official sparked a rout in equities and bonds. Odds increased for faster rate increases, with some traders speculating a hike may come even before the next regularly scheduled meeting in March. Those worries were effectively ended Friday when the Fed signaled it would go ahead with the last of its bond purchases before the program ends next month. The central bank has said it won’t raise until after the buys are over.

Inflation concerns weighed on U.S. consumer sentiment, which declined further in early February to a fresh decade low as views about personal finances deteriorated. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 61.7, the lowest since October 2011, from 67.2 in January. Consumers expect an inflation rate of 5% over the next year, up from last month’s reading of 4.9% and the highest since 2008.

“Investors are worried that the economy is also slowing just at the worst time, just as the Fed is about to raise interest rates, which could threaten the health of this expansion and bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “Add to it the geopolitical tensions and I think it’s very good reasons why we now have the volatility that we do.”

For more market analysis, read our MLIV blog.

Here are the main market moves:


Stocks


* The S&P 500 fell 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.6%

Currencies


* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $1.1341
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3551
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 115.31 per dollar

Bonds


* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 1.92%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.54%

Commodities


* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.3% to $93.78 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.5% to $1,864.60 an ounce

–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Akshay Chinchalkar and Robert Brand.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
Two-thirds of UK nurses report working while unwell amid staffing crisis
Britain to Reform Human-Rights Laws in Sweeping Asylum Policy Overhaul
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
×