London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jun 10, 2026

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast.

It also warned of a "rocky road" for the global financial system.

It follows the collapse of two US banks last month, closely followed by a rushed takeover of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse by its rival UBS, which sparked fears of another financial crisis.

The IMF had already forecast that the UK would experience a downturn this year and be bottom of the pile of the G7 - a group of the world's seven largest so-called "advanced" economies, which dominate global trade and the international financial system. The UK topped the group in 2022 during the pandemic rebound.

It now expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2023 and then grow by 1% next year.

Although the UK is forecast to have the worst economic performance this year, the IMF's latest prediction is slightly better than its previous expectation of a 0.6% contraction, made in January.

IMF researchers have previously pointed to Britain's exposure to high gas prices, rising interest rates and a sluggish trade performance as reasons for its weak economic performance.

Forecasts are made to give a guide to what is most likely to happen in the future, but they are not always right. For example, previous IMF forecasts picked up fewer than 10% of recessions a year ahead of time, according to an analysis it conducted of recessions around the world between 1992 and 2014.

Responding to the latest IMF's predictions, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "Our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country.

"The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone."

But Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the estimates showed "just how far we continue to lag behind on the global stage".

"This matters not just because 13 years of low growth under the Tories are weakening our economy, but because it's why families are worse off, facing a Tory mortgage penalty and seeing living standards falling at their fastest rate since records began," she added.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the forecast was "another damning indictment of this Conservative government's record on the economy".

A number of forecasters think the chances of a recession in the UK this year are declining. An economy is usually said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility now expects the economy to contract by 0.2% this year but avoid a recession.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said recently that he was "much more hopeful" for the economy, and it was no longer heading into an immediate recession.


The new forecasts come against the backdrop of a world economy that continues to recover from both the pandemic and the Ukraine war energy shock.

But the IMF said there were concerns about the wider impact of recent fragility in global banking markets.

The IMF now expects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3% in five years' time.

But it warned that if there is more stress in the financial sector, global growth could weaken further this year.


Interest rates predicted to fall


Separately, the IMF said it expects real interest rates - which take into account inflation - in major economies to fall to pre-pandemic levels because of low productivity and ageing populations.

Central banks in the UK, the US, Europe and other nations have been increasing interest rates to combat the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation.

In the UK, inflation is at its highest for nearly 40 years because of rising energy prices and soaring food costs. In response, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates, and last month increased them to 4.25%.

However, in a blog the IMF said that "recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary".

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Farmers Warn of Crop Losses Following Months of Unseasonal Rainfall
Civil Aviation Authority Launches Review of Regional Airport Operations
Met Office Issues Heat-Health Alert Across Parts of England
National Grid Introduces New Measures to Protect Winter Energy Supply
Northern England Rail Upgrades Receive Additional Government Funding
Wales Advances Green Hydrogen Strategy to Decarbonize Heavy Industry
UK Expands Recruitment Incentives to Address Shortage of STEM Teachers
High Court Opens Door to Climate Liability Claims Against Major Industrial Emitters
Police Service of Northern Ireland Investigates Major Personnel Data Breach
Defense Ministry Overhauls Procurement System to Accelerate AUKUS Submarine Program
Net Migration Remains Above Government Expectations, New Data Shows
UK and Scottish Governments Agree Framework for Expanded North Sea Wind Development
UK Treasury Launches New Tax Incentives to Boost AI and Semiconductor Investment
Bank of England Signals Continued Caution on Interest Rate Cuts
UK Unveils £10 Billion NHS Digital Modernization Plan Centered on AI Integration
Nebius Opens Major Robotics and Physical AI Laboratory in London
Bank of England Data Shows Strong Rise in New Mortgage Approvals
Network Rail Completes Landmark Upgrade of Severn Tunnel Rail Infrastructure
East West Rail Passenger Services Between Oxford and Milton Keynes Set for December Launch
GlaxoSmithKline Reportedly Pursues £7 Billion Acquisition of US Cancer Drug Developer Nuvalent
Bank of England Signals Interest Rates Likely to Remain Unchanged Despite Energy Market Risks
NHS Trusts Launch Job-Cutting Programmes as Financial Pressures Intensify Across England
More Than 130 Labour MPs Urge Ban on Trade With Israeli Settlements
Keir Starmer Orders Technology Firms to Introduce Smartphone Nudity Controls for Under-18s
UK Unveils £400 Million National AI Supercomputer Fund and New Economics Institute
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
Global Critical Mineral Alliances Expand as Western Nations Move to Counter Chinese Supply Dominance
United States Imposes Fifty Percent Tariffs on Mexican Steel and Aluminum Ahead of Trade Pact Review
European Union and China Head Toward Major Trade Conflict Over Clean Technology Exports
United States Economic Growth Severely Downgraded to One Point Six Percent as Stagflation Fears Mount
World Health Organization Warns Central African Ebola Epidemic is Outpacing Containment Efforts
United States Treasury Department Conditions Sanctions Relief on Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Air Defenses Intercept and Destroy United States Military Drone Over Bushehr Province
Iranian Armed Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles Toward Unspecified Targets Prompting Regional Condemnation
×