London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 04, 2026

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

The UK economy shrank by more than first thought in the three months to September, revised figures show.

The economy contracted by 0.3%, compared with a previous estimate of 0.2%, as business investment performed worse than first thought, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Growth figures for the first half of 2022 have also been revised down.

The UK is forecast to fall into recession in the final three months of the year as soaring prices hit growth.

A country is considered to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row. Typically companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises, leaving the government with less money in tax to use on public services.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: "Our revised figures show the economy performed slightly less well over the last year than we previously estimated", with manufacturing "notably weaker".

He added that household incomes, when accounting for rising prices, continued to fall, and household spending "fell for the first time since the final Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2021".

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) - the measure of the size of the economy - was now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was before the pandemic struck, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.


The economy has been hit as surging energy and food prices push inflation - the rate at which prices rise - to its highest level in 40 years.

It means that consumers are spending less and businesses are cutting investment.

Along with its revision for the July-to-September period, the ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated in the first half of the year - expanding by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.

The ONS has previously said growth stood at 0.7% and 0.2% in those quarters respectively.

It is not unusual for the ONS to revise its growth estimates. It produces a first estimate of GDP about 40 days after the quarter in question, at which point only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised later as more information comes in.

Last week, figures from the ONS indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% over the August-to-October period.

The government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that the UK will fall into a recession "lasting just over a year".

The OBR has predicted that the economy will shrink by 1.4% in 2023 before growth gradually picks up again.


As a result it expects the unemployment rate to rise and house prices to fall sharply as the Bank of England puts up interest rates to control soaring prices.

Last week, the Bank raised its key rate to 3.5%, the highest level for 14 years, which is pushing up repayment costs for people with mortgages and loans.

The UK is not the only country seeing its economy slow down, with the US and eurozone also expected to fall into recession next year.

However, Gabriella Dickens from Pantheon Macroeconomics said she expected the UK to "suffer the deepest recession among major advanced economies in 2023".

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt blamed Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine for the economic difficulties.

"High inflation driven by Putin's invasion of Ukraine is slowing economic growth across the world. No country is immune, least of all Britain," he said.

But responding to the latest ONS figures, Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the government of losing control over the economy.

"GDP data has been revised down, leaving the UK with the worst growth in the G7 in the last quarter," she tweeted.

"The Tories have lost control of the economy and are leaving millions of working people paying the price."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Marks Merchant Navy Day With Tribute to Civilian Seafarers
Burnham Pays Tribute to Two Police Officers Killed on Duty in Northern England
Booking.com Left Fake Downing Street Listing Online for Two Months, Which Says
Burnham and Macron to Review UK-France Cooperation on Channel Crossings
UK Business Confidence Improves Slightly but Investment Concerns Persist
Burnham Faces Pressure Over Future North Sea Oil and Gas Licences
Burnham Pushes Wider English Devolution Through ‘Number Ten North’
British Chambers of Commerce Raises 2026 UK Growth Forecast to 1%
Keir Starmer Resigns as Holborn and St Pancras MP, Triggering By-Election
UK Chancellor Faces Tighter Budget Headroom as Long-Term Borrowing Costs Rise
UK Government Weighs Thames Water Nationalisation as Financial Crisis Deepens
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces First Commons Questions Over Tax and Spending Plans
Eleven British Seafarers Receive Merchant Navy Medal
Which? Creates Fake 10 Downing Street Rental Listing to Expose Booking.com Vetting Weaknesses
BP Appoints New Chairman in Effort to Stabilise Leadership
Aberdeen Sells Hydrogen Bus Fleet at Heavy Loss After Green Transport Experiment
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record as Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Heat
Scotland Pledges to End Temporary Accommodation for Children and Build 111,000 Affordable Homes
DNO Agrees $396 Million Deal to Acquire Capricorn Energy
Uber and Wayve Launch UK’s First Supervised Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in London
Britain Expected to Avoid New US Tariffs Targeting European Union
Middle East Conflict Pushes UK Energy Costs Higher and Revives Inflation Concerns
UK Growth Forecast Cut to 1% Through 2027 as Youth Unemployment Is Projected to Rise
Andy Burnham Links Weak UK Growth to Brexit in First Full Commons Session as Prime Minister
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
UK Business Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Sale Recovers Just Six Pence for Every Pound Invested
Which? Exposes Booking.com Verification Failures With Fake 10 Downing Street Listing
British Business Bank Invests Up to £46 Million in Deep-Tech Startup Fund
Scottish Government Puts Violence Against Women at Center of Legislative Program
FCA Eases UK IPO Rules to Strengthen London’s Listing Market
UK Likely to Avoid Next US Tariff Measures as Washington Targets EU
Macron Visits UK for Bayeux Tapestry Exhibition and Border Security Talks
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts UK Growth Outlook to 1% for 2026 and 2027
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, Triggering By-Election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Unveils Devolution and Cost-of-Living Agenda
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 5.88%
Cleveland Police Receive £2 Million to Tackle Serious Crime in Middlesbrough
Number of Young People in England Without a Close Friend Reaches Record Level
Five Arrested After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Reported Second Parliamentary Standards Investigation
UK Retirement Funding Requirement Rises by £64,000 Compared With 2021
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April, Nationwide Says
FCA Chief Faces Allegations of Intimidating Consumer Group Over £9 Billion Car Loan Inquiry
Scottish Government Presses Ahead With Cap on Essential Food Prices
Burnham Government Moves to Overhaul Early Prison Release Scheme
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026, Met Office Says
UK Government Announces Major Reset of Diplomatic Policy Towards Israel
UK Pushes Back After Trump Reopens Falkland Islands Sovereignty Dispute
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
×