London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

The UK economy shrank by more than first thought in the three months to September, revised figures show.

The economy contracted by 0.3%, compared with a previous estimate of 0.2%, as business investment performed worse than first thought, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Growth figures for the first half of 2022 have also been revised down.

The UK is forecast to fall into recession in the final three months of the year as soaring prices hit growth.

A country is considered to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row. Typically companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises, leaving the government with less money in tax to use on public services.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: "Our revised figures show the economy performed slightly less well over the last year than we previously estimated", with manufacturing "notably weaker".

He added that household incomes, when accounting for rising prices, continued to fall, and household spending "fell for the first time since the final Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2021".

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) - the measure of the size of the economy - was now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was before the pandemic struck, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.


The economy has been hit as surging energy and food prices push inflation - the rate at which prices rise - to its highest level in 40 years.

It means that consumers are spending less and businesses are cutting investment.

Along with its revision for the July-to-September period, the ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated in the first half of the year - expanding by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.

The ONS has previously said growth stood at 0.7% and 0.2% in those quarters respectively.

It is not unusual for the ONS to revise its growth estimates. It produces a first estimate of GDP about 40 days after the quarter in question, at which point only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised later as more information comes in.

Last week, figures from the ONS indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% over the August-to-October period.

The government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that the UK will fall into a recession "lasting just over a year".

The OBR has predicted that the economy will shrink by 1.4% in 2023 before growth gradually picks up again.


As a result it expects the unemployment rate to rise and house prices to fall sharply as the Bank of England puts up interest rates to control soaring prices.

Last week, the Bank raised its key rate to 3.5%, the highest level for 14 years, which is pushing up repayment costs for people with mortgages and loans.

The UK is not the only country seeing its economy slow down, with the US and eurozone also expected to fall into recession next year.

However, Gabriella Dickens from Pantheon Macroeconomics said she expected the UK to "suffer the deepest recession among major advanced economies in 2023".

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt blamed Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine for the economic difficulties.

"High inflation driven by Putin's invasion of Ukraine is slowing economic growth across the world. No country is immune, least of all Britain," he said.

But responding to the latest ONS figures, Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the government of losing control over the economy.

"GDP data has been revised down, leaving the UK with the worst growth in the G7 in the last quarter," she tweeted.

"The Tories have lost control of the economy and are leaving millions of working people paying the price."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Prince Harry and Meghan to Move Back to Britain With Their Children
England and Wales Have Fewer Than 1,800 Prison Places Left for Men
Suspected People Smuggler Arrested After Investigation Identified Him
Children's Doctors Warn That Vaping Can Lead Young People to Smoking
Hundreds of Thousands of Students Receive GCSE and Vocational Results Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Here Is What Can Never Happen in Your Country: Taiwan Is Giving Money to All Its People Because It Collected Too Much Tax
UK Inflation Rises to 2.9% as Energy Bills Jump
UK Issues New Conduct Guide for Asylum Seekers on Consent and Respect
Moderna Shares Surge After Positive Personalized Skin Cancer Trial Results
UK Markets Watch US National Debt Surpass Forty Trillion Dollars
UK Broadcasters Urge Government to Invest in Digital Participation and Broadband
CVC Capital Partners and Standard Life Launch Two Billion Pound Pension Risk Transfer Venture
UK Private Sector Productivity Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter
UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Condemns Israeli E1 Settlement Tender
UK Watchdog Investigates Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and RED Driving School Over Hidden Fees
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Plan Move to Private Home Outside London
UK Retail Sentiment Improves as Summer Spending Boosts Consumer Confidence
UK Aid Cuts Draw Warnings From Charities Over Humanitarian Consequences
UK Financial Conduct Authority Issues Guidance for Motor Finance Redress Scheme
UK Met Office Launches Aviation Programme to Reduce Climate Impact of Persistent Contrails
Former UK Civil Service Chief Received Record 500,000 Pound Severance Payment
West Midlands to Bring Bus Network Under Public Franchising Model
UK Government Drops Plan to Relax Affordable Housing Requirements After Backlash
UK Reaffirms Military Support for Ukraine Despite Russian Hybrid Warfare Threats
UK Technology Sector Expands Nearly 8 Percent as Digital Industry Outpaces Wider Economy
UK Drought Threatens Harvests Across England and Wales as Food Inflation Risks Persist
UK Government Pledges 442 Million Pounds to End Rough Sleeping by Christmas
UK Government Signals Willingness to Reconsider Digital Services Tax Amid US Tariff Threats
UK Inflation Rises to 2.9 Percent as Energy Costs Threaten Economic Recovery
NHS Hospitals Cancel Surgeries as Extreme Heat Pushes Ward Temperatures Above 40 Degrees Celsius
UK Heatwave Forces Emergency Measures as Wildfire Risk, Hospital Disruption and Drought Intensify
A Sleepless Night on Wall Street: Nasdaq to Begin Nearly Round-the-Clock Trading
"The First in the World": 69-Year-Old Protested Artificial Intelligence—and Went to Jail
Ukraine's Ousted Defence Minister Calls for Wartime Presidential Election
UK Marks Ten Years of Night Tube as London Weekend Usage Exceeds Eighty-One Thousand Journeys a Night
Met Office Issues Thunderstorm Warnings Across Northern Ireland Over Flash-Flood Risk
Frasers Group Raises Stake in Hugo Boss to Nearly Forty-Eight Percent
Scottish Clyde Marine Pilots Prepare for Strike That Could Disrupt Glasgow and Greenock Shipping
Twenty Passengers Injured After Southern Train Derails Near Lewes in East Sussex
Government Rules Out High-Speed Rail Revival Between West Midlands and Northern England
West Midlands Bus Network Returns to Public Ownership in Twenty-Four Million Pound Deal
UK Competition Watchdog Targets Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and RED Driving School Over Drip Pricing
Northern Ireland Health Minister Mike Nesbitt Resigns After Dispute Over Causeway Hospital Surgery Closure
UK Long-Term Government Bond Yields Rise to Five Point Eight Five Percent as Borrowing Costs Surge
UK Government Overhauls Planning Rules to Push Housing Development Near Major Transport Hubs
UK Health and Economic Pressures Highlight Wider Strain on Households and Public Finances
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Reaffirms Full Support for Ukraine Amid Russian Warnings
Sainsbury’s Suspends Live Facial Recognition at London Store After Customer Misidentified
Artists Urge UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Reject New North Sea Oil and Gas Licensing
UK Government Awards Four Hundred and Fifty-Six Million Pound Civil Service Training Contract to EY and KPMG
×