London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

The UK economy shrank by more than first thought in the three months to September, revised figures show.

The economy contracted by 0.3%, compared with a previous estimate of 0.2%, as business investment performed worse than first thought, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Growth figures for the first half of 2022 have also been revised down.

The UK is forecast to fall into recession in the final three months of the year as soaring prices hit growth.

A country is considered to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row. Typically companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises, leaving the government with less money in tax to use on public services.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: "Our revised figures show the economy performed slightly less well over the last year than we previously estimated", with manufacturing "notably weaker".

He added that household incomes, when accounting for rising prices, continued to fall, and household spending "fell for the first time since the final Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2021".

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) - the measure of the size of the economy - was now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was before the pandemic struck, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.


The economy has been hit as surging energy and food prices push inflation - the rate at which prices rise - to its highest level in 40 years.

It means that consumers are spending less and businesses are cutting investment.

Along with its revision for the July-to-September period, the ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated in the first half of the year - expanding by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.

The ONS has previously said growth stood at 0.7% and 0.2% in those quarters respectively.

It is not unusual for the ONS to revise its growth estimates. It produces a first estimate of GDP about 40 days after the quarter in question, at which point only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised later as more information comes in.

Last week, figures from the ONS indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% over the August-to-October period.

The government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that the UK will fall into a recession "lasting just over a year".

The OBR has predicted that the economy will shrink by 1.4% in 2023 before growth gradually picks up again.


As a result it expects the unemployment rate to rise and house prices to fall sharply as the Bank of England puts up interest rates to control soaring prices.

Last week, the Bank raised its key rate to 3.5%, the highest level for 14 years, which is pushing up repayment costs for people with mortgages and loans.

The UK is not the only country seeing its economy slow down, with the US and eurozone also expected to fall into recession next year.

However, Gabriella Dickens from Pantheon Macroeconomics said she expected the UK to "suffer the deepest recession among major advanced economies in 2023".

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt blamed Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine for the economic difficulties.

"High inflation driven by Putin's invasion of Ukraine is slowing economic growth across the world. No country is immune, least of all Britain," he said.

But responding to the latest ONS figures, Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the government of losing control over the economy.

"GDP data has been revised down, leaving the UK with the worst growth in the G7 in the last quarter," she tweeted.

"The Tories have lost control of the economy and are leaving millions of working people paying the price."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Reform UK and Greens Unite Against Vast Solar Plans for Kent Marshland
New Zealand Draws Wealthy Americans With Revamped Investor Visa
Senate Panel Votes to Hold Anthony Fauci in Contempt After Fifth Amendment Testimony
Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Resigns as University Opens Inquiry Into His Credentials
UK Artificial Intelligence Regulation and Public Infrastructure Investment Remain Key Policy Focus Areas
Kemi Badenoch Faces Criticism Over Appointment of Former Neo-Nazi Linked Figure to Advisory Role
AG Barr Reports £10 Million Sales Loss After Supply Chain and Planning Failures
UK Government Fast-Tracks Specialist Care Pathways for Motor Neurone Disease Patients
UK Government Connects More Than 60,000 Rural Homes and Businesses to Gigabit Broadband
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Forecast After Strong Summer Sales
Metropolitan Police Arrest Woman After Four Men Stabbed in Central London’s Covent Garden Area
UK Procurement Reform and Infrastructure Spending Signal New Focus on Regional Economic Growth
UK Government Expands Global Talent Visa Access for International Researchers and Innovators
NHS Launches £343 Million Expansion of Community Mental Health Centres Across England
UK Treasury Explores Higher Borrowing Capacity for Infrastructure and Housing Investment
UK Cabinet Office Reforms Procurement Rules to Direct £90 Billion of Public Spending Toward Jobs and Skills
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein’s Activities and Possible Institutional Failures
Britain’s AI Safety Institute Finds Advanced Models Creating Fake Identities and Malicious Code During Tests
Lightning Strike Kills Yala FC Player During Match in Southern Thailand
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
UK Government Pushes New Procurement, Skills and Technology Policies Amid Economic Pressure
UK Charity Commission Investigates Donations Linked to Israeli Settlement Groups
UK Government Faces Pressure Over Possible Windfall Tax on Bank Profits
South East Water Provides Emergency Support After Kent Supply Disruptions
UK Defence Supports US Operation to Seize Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Green Party Wins First Westminster By-Election Seat in Historic Gorton and Denton Victory
UK Farmers Face Rising Bluetongue Disease Cases Among Sheep Flocks
UK Government Warns Retailers and Fuel Suppliers Against Exploiting Price Pressures
Apple, AI Deepfakes and New UK Rules Highlight Growing Digital Regulation Challenges
UK Education Department Expands Fully Funded Apprenticeships for Under-25s
National Crime Agency and Spanish Police Arrest Scotland’s Most Wanted Fugitive in Madrid
UK Labour Government’s Devolution Plans Renew Debate Over Written Constitution
EY UK Forecasts Weak Growth in 2026 as Energy Risks Continue to Pressure Households
Apple Challenges UK Government Demand for Access to Encrypted iCloud Data
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein Network and Institutional Links
Cabinet Office Reforms UK Government Procurement Rules to Prioritize Local Jobs and Skills
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
×