London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

UK economy shrank more than previously thought

The UK economy shrank by more than first thought in the three months to September, revised figures show.

The economy contracted by 0.3%, compared with a previous estimate of 0.2%, as business investment performed worse than first thought, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Growth figures for the first half of 2022 have also been revised down.

The UK is forecast to fall into recession in the final three months of the year as soaring prices hit growth.

A country is considered to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row. Typically companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises, leaving the government with less money in tax to use on public services.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: "Our revised figures show the economy performed slightly less well over the last year than we previously estimated", with manufacturing "notably weaker".

He added that household incomes, when accounting for rising prices, continued to fall, and household spending "fell for the first time since the final Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2021".

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) - the measure of the size of the economy - was now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was before the pandemic struck, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.


The economy has been hit as surging energy and food prices push inflation - the rate at which prices rise - to its highest level in 40 years.

It means that consumers are spending less and businesses are cutting investment.

Along with its revision for the July-to-September period, the ONS said the economy also grew less than first estimated in the first half of the year - expanding by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second quarter.

The ONS has previously said growth stood at 0.7% and 0.2% in those quarters respectively.

It is not unusual for the ONS to revise its growth estimates. It produces a first estimate of GDP about 40 days after the quarter in question, at which point only about 60% of the data is available, so the figure is revised later as more information comes in.

Last week, figures from the ONS indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% over the August-to-October period.

The government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that the UK will fall into a recession "lasting just over a year".

The OBR has predicted that the economy will shrink by 1.4% in 2023 before growth gradually picks up again.


As a result it expects the unemployment rate to rise and house prices to fall sharply as the Bank of England puts up interest rates to control soaring prices.

Last week, the Bank raised its key rate to 3.5%, the highest level for 14 years, which is pushing up repayment costs for people with mortgages and loans.

The UK is not the only country seeing its economy slow down, with the US and eurozone also expected to fall into recession next year.

However, Gabriella Dickens from Pantheon Macroeconomics said she expected the UK to "suffer the deepest recession among major advanced economies in 2023".

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt blamed Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine for the economic difficulties.

"High inflation driven by Putin's invasion of Ukraine is slowing economic growth across the world. No country is immune, least of all Britain," he said.

But responding to the latest ONS figures, Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the government of losing control over the economy.

"GDP data has been revised down, leaving the UK with the worst growth in the G7 in the last quarter," she tweeted.

"The Tories have lost control of the economy and are leaving millions of working people paying the price."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
GB News Faces Regulatory Complaints Over On-Air Remarks on ‘Genocide’ Claims
UK Signals Expanded Support for Gulf Allies as Iranian Attacks Intensify Regional Threats
UK VAT Decision Opens Path for Potential Refunds to U.S. Biopharma Firms
UK and Canada Advance ‘Middle Power’ Strategy to Shape Global Influence Beyond Superpowers
Google Explores AI Opt-Out Features in Search to Address UK Regulatory Concerns
Google Explores AI Opt-Out Features in Search to Address UK Regulatory Concerns
UK Fuel Prices Poised to Surge as Global Tensions Drive Oil Market Volatility
UK Fuel Prices Poised to Surge as Global Tensions Drive Oil Market Volatility
UK Holds Back on Hormuz Escort Mission While Continuing Talks with Allies
TrumpRx Pricing Platform Faces Scrutiny as Some Medicines Remain Costlier Than in the UK
UK, Netherlands and Finland Explore Joint Defence Investment Bank to Boost Military Capability
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak in Kent Raises Alarm as Cases Surge and Emergency Response Expands
UK Security Adviser Viewed US-Iran Nuclear Deal as Within Reach Before Sudden Escalation
UK Prime Minister Urges Continued Focus on Ukraine Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
UK Introduces New Safeguards to Shield Lenders from Bank Run Risks
UK Promotional Products Market Surpasses £1.3 Billion as Demand Strengthens in 2025
Reeves Pushes for Deeper UK-EU Economic Ties to Revive Growth
UK Security Adviser Saw No Imminent Iranian Nuclear Threat Days Before War Erupted
France Signals Warm Welcome for UK Return to EU Single Market Amid Renewed Cooperation Talks
UK Defence Official Criticises Boeing Over Delays to E-7 Wedgetail Programme
UK Urged to Secure Quantum Talent as Minister Warns Against Repeating AI Setbacks
UK Mayors Set to Gain New Spending Powers Under Reeves’ Fiscal Devolution Plan
Western Allies Urge Restraint as Israel Weighs Expanded Ground Operation in Lebanon
Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad’ Future Without Stronger Allied Support in Iran Conflict
UK Minister Says Britain Not Bound to Support Every Demand From U.S. President
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
UK Set to Introduce Steel Tariffs of Up to 50 Percent in New Industrial Strategy
European Governments Decline Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Fears Over Iran Conflict Weigh on UK Consumer Confidence
Starmer Says UK Working With Allies on Hormuz Shipping Plan After Trump Raises Pressure
Iran War and Energy Shock Shake Britain’s Economy and Political Debate
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
Prince William Honors Princess Diana with Mother’s Day Tribute
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
×