London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Sep 01, 2025

There's an $80 trillion 'blind spot' in the financial system that could spell trouble for markets as debts held off-balance sheet grow at a rapid pace

There's an $80 trillion 'blind spot' in the financial system that could spell trouble for markets as debts held off-balance sheet grow at a rapid pace

A lack of transparency makes it more difficult for central bank officials to fully grasp just how big and impactful this lurking debt could be.
There is more than $80 trillion in hidden debts held by shadow banks and non-US banks that could ultimately spell trouble for markets.

That's because the debt is held off of balance sheets, and therefore a lack of transparency makes it all the more difficult for central bank officials to fully grasp just how big and impactful this lurking debt could be in the event of a stressful market event.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the massive debt pile is tied to foreign currency swaps and represents repayment obligations between different financial institutions that have yet to be settled. For example, a foreign investment firm that wants to buy US assets, like a US-listed stock, would first have to convert their foreign currency to US dollars, often via a foreign-currency swap, and then buy the asset.

But for as long as the foreign investment firm holds onto the US-based asset, there's an ongoing currency obligation it owes until the trade is closed out. And that obligation is recorded off the balance sheets of financial institutions. This makes it difficult for central bank policymakers to fully grasp the potential demand for US dollars amid a volatile market event.

While the obligations are relatively safe, short-term, and backed by hard currencies, it could still be vulnerable during periods of high stress in the market.
"FX Swap markets are vulnerable to funding squeezes. This was evident during the Great Financial Crisis and again in March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic

wrought havoc. For all the differences between 2008 and 2020, swaps emerged in both episodes as flash points, with dollar borrowers forced to pay high rates if they could borrow at all," BIS explained in a Monday note.

The BIS calls it a "blind spot" for the financial system, and the hidden debt is growing quickly, having more than doubled since 2008. 

What's most concerning to the BIS is the lack of data and transparency around to these ballooning debts. That lack of visibility could make it all the more difficult for the Fed to alleviate market stresses in the event that supplies of the US dollar suddenly dried up.

"It is not even clear how many analysts are aware of the existence of the large off-balance sheet obligations. In times of crises, policies to restore the smooth flow of short-term dollars in the financial system — for instance, central bank swap lines — are set in a fog," BIS said. 

That's why the BIS is trying to get a handle on just how big the off-balance sheet debt is, though it admits its recently updated data is likely not a full representation of the currency obligations.

"Off-balance sheet dollar debt may remain out of sight and out of mind, but only until the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed. Then, the hidden leverage and maturity mismatch in pension funds' and insurance companies' portfolios – generally supposed to be long-only – could pose a policy challenge. And policies to restore the flow of dollars would still be set in a fog," BIS concluded.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Chinese and Indian Leaders Pursue Amity Amid Global Shifts
European Union Plans for Ukraine Deployment
ECB Warns Against Inflation Complacency
Concerns Over North Cyprus Casino Development
Shipping Companies Look Beyond Chinese Finance
Rural Exodus Fueling European Wildfires
China Hosts Major Security Meeting
Chinese Police Successfully Recover Family's Savings from Livestream Purchases
Germany Marks a Decade Since Migrant Wave with Divisions, Success Stories, and Political Shifts
Liverpool Defeat Arsenal 1–0 with Szoboszlai Free-Kick to Stay Top of Premier League
Prince Harry and King Charles to Meet in First Reunion After 20 Months
Chinese Stock Market Rally Fueled by Domestic Investors
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
Ukrainian Nationalist Politician Andriy Parubiy Assassinated in Lviv
Corporate America Cuts Middle Management as Bosses Take On Triple the Workload
Parents Sue OpenAI After Teen’s Death, Alleging ChatGPT Encouraged Suicide
Amazon Faces Lawsuit Over 'Buy' Label on Digital Streaming Content
Federal Reserve Independence Questioned Amid Trump’s Push to Reshape Central Bank
British Politics Faces Tumultuous Autumn After Summer of Rebellions and Rising Farage Momentum
US Appeals Court Rules Against Most Trump-Era Tariffs
UK Sought Broad Access to Apple Users’ Data, Court Filing Reveals
UK Bank Shares Dive Over Potential Tax on Sector
Germany’s Auto Industry Sheds 51,500 Jobs in First Half of 2025 Amid Deepening Crisis
Bruce Willis Relocated Due to Advanced Dementia
French and Korean Nuclear Majors Clash As EU Launches Foreign Subsidy Probe
EU Stands Firm on Digital Rules as Trump Warns of Retaliation
Getting Ready for the 3rd Time in Its History, Germany Approves Voluntary Military Service for Teenagers
Argentine President Javier Milei Evacuated After Stones Thrown During Campaign Event
Denmark Confronts U.S. Diplomat Over Covert Trump-Linked Influence in Greenland
Starmer Should Back Away from ECHR, Says Jack Straw
Trump Demands RICO Charges Against George Soros and Son for Funding Violent Protests
Taylor Swift Announces Engagement to NFL Star Travis Kelce
France May Need IMF Bailout, Warns Finance Minister
Chinese AI Chipmaker Cambricon Posts Record Profit as Beijing Pushes Pivot from Nvidia
After the Shock of Defeat, Iranians Yearn for Change
Ukraine Finally Allows Young Men Aged Eighteen to Twenty-Two to Leave the Country
The Porn Remains, Privacy Disappears: How Britain Broke the Internet in Ten Days
YouTube Altered Content by Artificial Intelligence – Without Permission
Welcome to The Definition of Insanity: Germany Edition
Just a reminder, this is Michael Jackson's daughter, Paris.
Spotify’s Strange Move: The Feature Nobody Asked For – Returns
Manhunt in Australia: Armed Anti-Government Suspect Kills Police Officers Sent to Arrest Him
China Launches World’s Most Powerful Neutrino Detector
How Beijing-Linked Networks Shape Elections in New York City
Ukrainian Refugee Iryna Zarutska Fled War To US, Stabbed To Death
Elon Musk Sues Apple and OpenAI Over Alleged App Store Monopoly
2 Australian Police Shot Dead In Encounter In Rural Victoria State
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
×