London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 26, 2025

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

But Labour’s lead over the Tories closes to 16 points

Nearly two thirds of adults in Britain expect Labour to win the next General Election, a new poll revealed on Tuesday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard also found that eight in ten people believe the country needs a fresh team of leaders.

However, the findings are not all good news for Sir Keir Starmer as Labour’s Westminster headline voting intention lead over the Tories is closing.

Labour is still 16 points ahead, but this is down from 23 points in March.

There is also little sign that Sir Keir is sealing the deal with the electorate, as his personal ratings are unchanged, if not slightly down.

His net satisfaction has risen among Labour supporters, with the opposite happening for Rishi Sunak among Tory backers, but overall the Conservative leader still does better among his own voters.

The key results are:

*  Sixty-three per cent expect Labour to be the biggest party after the next General Election, but most believe it will be a hung Parliament (43 per cent) with Sir Keir having the most MPs, rather than a Labour majority (20 per cent). These figures are almost a reverse of September 2019, shortly before Boris Johnson won the December election, when 58 per cent expected a victory for him, only 12 per cent a Tory majority, with 46 per cent a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party.

*  Only 25 per cent think the Conservatives will get the most MPs at the next election, and only eight per cent that they will win a majority. Just 45 per cent of current Tory voters believe their party will win the election.

*  On overall voting intentions, Labour is on 44 per cent, down five points on March, the Conservatives 28 per cent, up two points, the Liberal Democrats 13 per cent, up two points, and the Greens unchanged on six per cent.

*  Mr Sunak and Sir Keir are neck and neck on the “most capable Prime Minister” question, with 34 per cent naming the former, and 33 per cent the latter, little changed from March when it was 37 per cent to 36 per cent respectively.

*  Only 23 per cent say the Conservative Government deserves to be re-elected, though up slightly from 19 per cent in December.

*  But 80 per cent agree Britain needs a fresh team of leaders. In March 2010, before Gordon Brown’s Labour lost the election, 76 per cent held this view.

*  Sixty-eight per cent of Tory supporters are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down from 75 per cent in March, while half of Labour backers are content with Sir Keir, up two points.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos UK, said: “Keir Starmer’s Labour is in a very different position to 2019, with most Britons now expecting that they will emerge the biggest party at the next election, and having overcome quite a lot of the doubts about them.

“ The next step is whether they can turn that into stronger levels of enthusiasm for a Labour majority government.

“While Rishi Sunak does show signs of steadying the ship he will want to deliver better news on the economy and other public priorities to persuade more people that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.”

Amid the cost-of-living crisis, three quarters of adults are dissatisfied with the Government, unchanged from March.

Economic pessimism has nudged down, with 54 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to get worse, compared to 58 per cent in March, with those believing it will improve on 24 per cent, up from 22 per cent.

Four in ten (41 per cent) say Labour is ready to form the next Government, down from recent highs of 47 per cent at the end of last year, but above the figure for most of the time since 2010.

One in three (33 per cent) do not think Labour has the knowledge to run the economy properly, but 43 per cent disagree.

Thirty-six per cent say Sir Keir is ready to be PM, down three points on March, with 40 per cent disagreeing, no change.

Three in ten say they are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down two points on two months ago, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, with Sir Keir having similar figures.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has seen a five point jump in his satisfaction rating to 25 per cent after his party’s local election successes, with dissatisfied down four points to 32 per cent, but “don’t knows” still on 42 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
×