London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

But Labour’s lead over the Tories closes to 16 points

Nearly two thirds of adults in Britain expect Labour to win the next General Election, a new poll revealed on Tuesday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard also found that eight in ten people believe the country needs a fresh team of leaders.

However, the findings are not all good news for Sir Keir Starmer as Labour’s Westminster headline voting intention lead over the Tories is closing.

Labour is still 16 points ahead, but this is down from 23 points in March.

There is also little sign that Sir Keir is sealing the deal with the electorate, as his personal ratings are unchanged, if not slightly down.

His net satisfaction has risen among Labour supporters, with the opposite happening for Rishi Sunak among Tory backers, but overall the Conservative leader still does better among his own voters.

The key results are:

*  Sixty-three per cent expect Labour to be the biggest party after the next General Election, but most believe it will be a hung Parliament (43 per cent) with Sir Keir having the most MPs, rather than a Labour majority (20 per cent). These figures are almost a reverse of September 2019, shortly before Boris Johnson won the December election, when 58 per cent expected a victory for him, only 12 per cent a Tory majority, with 46 per cent a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party.

*  Only 25 per cent think the Conservatives will get the most MPs at the next election, and only eight per cent that they will win a majority. Just 45 per cent of current Tory voters believe their party will win the election.

*  On overall voting intentions, Labour is on 44 per cent, down five points on March, the Conservatives 28 per cent, up two points, the Liberal Democrats 13 per cent, up two points, and the Greens unchanged on six per cent.

*  Mr Sunak and Sir Keir are neck and neck on the “most capable Prime Minister” question, with 34 per cent naming the former, and 33 per cent the latter, little changed from March when it was 37 per cent to 36 per cent respectively.

*  Only 23 per cent say the Conservative Government deserves to be re-elected, though up slightly from 19 per cent in December.

*  But 80 per cent agree Britain needs a fresh team of leaders. In March 2010, before Gordon Brown’s Labour lost the election, 76 per cent held this view.

*  Sixty-eight per cent of Tory supporters are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down from 75 per cent in March, while half of Labour backers are content with Sir Keir, up two points.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos UK, said: “Keir Starmer’s Labour is in a very different position to 2019, with most Britons now expecting that they will emerge the biggest party at the next election, and having overcome quite a lot of the doubts about them.

“ The next step is whether they can turn that into stronger levels of enthusiasm for a Labour majority government.

“While Rishi Sunak does show signs of steadying the ship he will want to deliver better news on the economy and other public priorities to persuade more people that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.”

Amid the cost-of-living crisis, three quarters of adults are dissatisfied with the Government, unchanged from March.

Economic pessimism has nudged down, with 54 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to get worse, compared to 58 per cent in March, with those believing it will improve on 24 per cent, up from 22 per cent.

Four in ten (41 per cent) say Labour is ready to form the next Government, down from recent highs of 47 per cent at the end of last year, but above the figure for most of the time since 2010.

One in three (33 per cent) do not think Labour has the knowledge to run the economy properly, but 43 per cent disagree.

Thirty-six per cent say Sir Keir is ready to be PM, down three points on March, with 40 per cent disagreeing, no change.

Three in ten say they are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down two points on two months ago, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, with Sir Keir having similar figures.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has seen a five point jump in his satisfaction rating to 25 per cent after his party’s local election successes, with dissatisfied down four points to 32 per cent, but “don’t knows” still on 42 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
UK Prime Minister Starmer Arrives in China to Bolster Trade and Warn Firms of Strategic Opportunities
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Jobs After Earlier 14,000 Reduction, Citing Streamlining and AI Investment
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
Kim Kardashian Admits Faking Paparazzi Visit to Britney Spears for Fame in Early 2000s
UPS to Cut 30,000 More Jobs by 2026 Amid Shift to High-Margin Deliveries
France Plans to Replace Teams and Zoom Across Government With Homegrown Visio by 2027
Trump Removes Minneapolis Deportation Operation Commander After Fatal Shooting of Protester
Iran’s Elite Wealth Abroad and Sanctions Leakage: How Offshore Luxury Sustains Regime Resilience
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Four Arrested in Andhra Pradesh Over Alleged HIV-Contaminated Injection Attack on Doctor
Hot Drinks, Hidden Particles: How Disposable Cups Quietly Increase Microplastic Exposure
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
Poland delays euro adoption as Domański cites $1tn economy and zloty advantage
White House: Trump warns Canada of 100% tariff if Carney finalizes China trade deal
PLA opens CMC probe of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli over Xi authority and discipline violations
ICE and DHS immigration raids in Minneapolis: the use-of-force accountability crisis in mass deportation enforcement
UK’s Starmer and Trump Agree on Urgent Need to Bolster Arctic Security
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
FBI and U.S. prosecutors vs Ryan Wedding’s transnational cocaine-smuggling network: the fight over witness-killing and cross-border enforcement
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Apple and OpenAI Chase Screenless AI Wearables as the Post-iPhone Interface Battle Heats Up
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
×