London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Apr 02, 2026

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

Most Britons expect a Labour government but not with a majority, poll shows

But Labour’s lead over the Tories closes to 16 points

Nearly two thirds of adults in Britain expect Labour to win the next General Election, a new poll revealed on Tuesday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard also found that eight in ten people believe the country needs a fresh team of leaders.

However, the findings are not all good news for Sir Keir Starmer as Labour’s Westminster headline voting intention lead over the Tories is closing.

Labour is still 16 points ahead, but this is down from 23 points in March.

There is also little sign that Sir Keir is sealing the deal with the electorate, as his personal ratings are unchanged, if not slightly down.

His net satisfaction has risen among Labour supporters, with the opposite happening for Rishi Sunak among Tory backers, but overall the Conservative leader still does better among his own voters.

The key results are:

*  Sixty-three per cent expect Labour to be the biggest party after the next General Election, but most believe it will be a hung Parliament (43 per cent) with Sir Keir having the most MPs, rather than a Labour majority (20 per cent). These figures are almost a reverse of September 2019, shortly before Boris Johnson won the December election, when 58 per cent expected a victory for him, only 12 per cent a Tory majority, with 46 per cent a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party.

*  Only 25 per cent think the Conservatives will get the most MPs at the next election, and only eight per cent that they will win a majority. Just 45 per cent of current Tory voters believe their party will win the election.

*  On overall voting intentions, Labour is on 44 per cent, down five points on March, the Conservatives 28 per cent, up two points, the Liberal Democrats 13 per cent, up two points, and the Greens unchanged on six per cent.

*  Mr Sunak and Sir Keir are neck and neck on the “most capable Prime Minister” question, with 34 per cent naming the former, and 33 per cent the latter, little changed from March when it was 37 per cent to 36 per cent respectively.

*  Only 23 per cent say the Conservative Government deserves to be re-elected, though up slightly from 19 per cent in December.

*  But 80 per cent agree Britain needs a fresh team of leaders. In March 2010, before Gordon Brown’s Labour lost the election, 76 per cent held this view.

*  Sixty-eight per cent of Tory supporters are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down from 75 per cent in March, while half of Labour backers are content with Sir Keir, up two points.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos UK, said: “Keir Starmer’s Labour is in a very different position to 2019, with most Britons now expecting that they will emerge the biggest party at the next election, and having overcome quite a lot of the doubts about them.

“ The next step is whether they can turn that into stronger levels of enthusiasm for a Labour majority government.

“While Rishi Sunak does show signs of steadying the ship he will want to deliver better news on the economy and other public priorities to persuade more people that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.”

Amid the cost-of-living crisis, three quarters of adults are dissatisfied with the Government, unchanged from March.

Economic pessimism has nudged down, with 54 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to get worse, compared to 58 per cent in March, with those believing it will improve on 24 per cent, up from 22 per cent.

Four in ten (41 per cent) say Labour is ready to form the next Government, down from recent highs of 47 per cent at the end of last year, but above the figure for most of the time since 2010.

One in three (33 per cent) do not think Labour has the knowledge to run the economy properly, but 43 per cent disagree.

Thirty-six per cent say Sir Keir is ready to be PM, down three points on March, with 40 per cent disagreeing, no change.

Three in ten say they are satisfied with Mr Sunak, down two points on two months ago, with 55 per cent dissatisfied, with Sir Keir having similar figures.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has seen a five point jump in his satisfaction rating to 25 per cent after his party’s local election successes, with dissatisfied down four points to 32 per cent, but “don’t knows” still on 42 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles III Invited to Address Joint Session of U.S. Congress in Rare Diplomatic Honor
Debate Grows Over Whether Expanded North Sea Drilling Can Reduce UK Energy Bills
UK Faces Heightened Risk of Jet Fuel Shortages, Airline Chief Warns
UK Ends Police Investigations into Lawful Social Media Posts After Review Finds Overreach
Abramovich Moves to Establish Charity for Frozen Chelsea Sale Proceeds Amid UK Dispute
Starmer Reaffirms NATO Commitment While Responding to Trump’s Strategic Critique
UK Aid Reductions Raise Fears of Severe Human Impact Across Parts of Africa
UK Signals Renewed Push for EU Cooperation as Iran Conflict Reshapes Security Landscape
Bank of England Signals Caution as Bailey Advises Markets Against Expecting Rate Hikes
UK to Convene Global Coalition to Restore Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
Trump Signals Possible NATO Reassessment, Emphasizes Stronger U.S. Strategic Autonomy
Australia Joins British-Led Efforts to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Tensions
King Charles Plans US State Visit as UK Strengthens Ties with Trump Leadership
UK Regulator Launches Investigation Into Microsoft’s Business Software Practices
Kanye West Set for High-Profile Return to UK Stage at Wireless Festival
Trump Presses Europe to Strengthen Commitment as Iran Conflict Escalates
UK to Deploy Additional Troops to Middle East Amid Rising Regional Tensions
UK Authorities Face Claims of Heavy-Handed Measures in Monitoring Released Pro-Palestine Activists
Trump Calls on UK to Secure Its Own Energy as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Nigel Farage Declines Invitation to UK Conservative Conference Led by Liz Truss
Trump Warns Allies to Take Responsibility as Rift Deepens with UK and France Over Iran Conflict
How Britain’s Prime Minister Controls U.S. Bomber Access in Escalating Iran Conflict
Trump Urges Allies to Secure Their Own Oil Supplies as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy
Russia Expels British Diplomat as UK Pushes Back Against Pressure
White House App Faces Scrutiny After Claims of Continuous User Location Tracking
BBC Faces Scrutiny Over Allegations of Paid Content Linked to Saudi Arabia
UK-France Coastal Patrol Agreement Nears Breakdown Amid Migration Pressures
UK Police Detain Pro-Palestine Activist Again Weeks After Bail Release
FTSE 100 Advances as Energy and Mining Shares Gain Amid Middle East Tensions
Eli Lilly Seeks UK Pricing Deal to Unlock Renewed Pharmaceutical Investment
Three Arrested in UK After Massive Cocaine Haul Discovered Hidden in Banana Shipment
UK Fuel Prices Poised for Further Surge Amid Global Energy Pressures
Apple Subsidiary Penalized by UK Authorities for Breach of Moscow Sanctions
Western Allies Intensify Coordinated Sanctions Strategy Against Russia
UK Lawmakers Face Criticism Over Renewed Push for Social Media Restrictions
Starmer Signals UK Crackdown on Addictive Social Media Features
Rising Costs Push One in Five UK Hospitality Businesses to the Brink of Closure
Man Arrested on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After Car Strikes Pedestrians in UK, Injuring Seven
Escalating Conflict Involving Iran Tightens Fiscal Pressures and Highlights UK Economic Vulnerabilities
UK Moves to Confront Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Operating in Its Waters
UK Housing Divide Deepens as Older Owners Hold Wealth While Under-30s Face Mounting Barriers
London Demonstration Calls on UK to Recognize Iranian Opposition’s Provisional Government
UK Green Party Vote on ‘Zionism is Racism’ Motion Collapses Amid Internal Disputes and Technical Failures
SNL UK Ignites Debate with Sharp Royal Satire Targeting Prince Andrew and Prince William
EU Proposes ‘Emergency Brake’ to Resolve Deadlock in UK Youth Mobility Talks
Thousands Rally in London to Oppose Rise of Far-Right Movements
Hong Kong Official Rejects Allegations of Surveillance Orders Targeting UK-Based Dissidents
PayPal Expands Cryptocurrency Services to Allow UK Users to Buy and Sell Bitcoin
UK Minister Challenges Reform Party’s ‘Pro-Family’ Agenda as Debate Intensifies
Concerns Grow Over Meningitis Risk Among UK Students Amid Warning Signs of New Outbreaks
×