London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Oct 04, 2026

Look past the headlines and Bank of England's governor seems ready to flex his eyebrows

Look past the headlines and Bank of England's governor seems ready to flex his eyebrows

The Bank of England has announced that it's leaving interest rates and its quantitative easing programme unchanged. In practical terms, the Bank has done nothing to counter inflation. But that could soon change, says Ed Conway.

Once upon a time, which is to say about a century ago, central bankers did not communicate in the way normal people do.

Rather than telling the world what they were about to do, they used their eyebrows instead.

If the governor raised his eyebrows (it has always been a he, so far), that was a clear sign to markets and investors that something important was coming - a change in interest rates or financial regulation or something similar.

Now we're in the era of 24-hour TV news and social media, you might have thought that the eyebrows would no longer be necessary, but there's reason to believe the current governor - Andrew Bailey - is getting ready to flex them.

BoE governor Andrew Bailey


Today the Bank of England announced that it was leaving interest rates where they are at 0.1%, and would leave its quantitative easing (QE) programme, whereby it is creating money to buy government bonds, unchanged.

There were two members of the nine-person monetary policy committee voting to trim QE, but in practical terms, the Bank did nothing. No surprises.

Yet read deeper into the reams of documents the Bank released today, and you get the sense of an eyebrow moving somewhat - quivering if not rising. The key fact in the backdrop to this is that inflation - as measured by the consumer price index - is now comfortably above the Bank's 2% target.

Indeed, it's so far above target that the governor had to write a letter of explanation to the chancellor.

In that letter the governor trotted out the Bank's familiar position: yes inflation is high, yes this is higher than we expected, but even so, we expect it to fall back in due course. This will, so he wrote, be "transitory".

But while such pronouncements seemed confident earlier this year, they are becoming slightly less convincing as prices rise higher and higher. For one thing, the Bank now thinks that not only will CPI inflation rise above 4%, but it will also be there until the middle of next year. That's nearly a whole year of inflation at double the Bank's target.

For another, the Bank conceded that energy prices could well push that up even further. Finally, within the minutes, the Bank signalled that interest rates may soon go up. Developments, it said, "appear to have strengthened that case".

In the wake of these minutes, the traders betting on future changes in interest rates seemed to take this as a signal.

A small increase (0.15 percentage points) is now nearly a 90% probability next February, according to these markets. The eyebrows, in other words, seem to be signalling something.

Comments

Oh ya 5 year ago
Central banks can not raise interest rates to slow inflation. Countries are so far in debt they are borrowing money now to make ends meet. They would be bankrupt in a month if the rate goes up.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Introduces Stricter Subcontractor Checks and Expanded Trade Union Access
Green Party Proposes Three-Year Emergency Freeze on Private Rent Increases
UK Treasury Committee Seeks Tax Clarification Over Manchester City Investigation
Royal Marines Deploy to Faroe Islands for Northern European Security Exercise
UK Business Confidence Weakens as High Costs Delay Investment
UK GDP Growth Revised Up to 0.5% in Second Quarter
Bank of England Warns of Financial Stability Risks From Autonomous AI
UK Expands Early Prisoner Release Scheme to Ease Overcrowding
UK Records Worst Bluetongue Outbreak on Record Across Livestock Farms
UK Government Faces Shrinking Fiscal Headroom Ahead of October 28 Budget
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 6% as Energy Shock Drives Borrowing Costs Higher
Church of England to Apologize for Role in Historical Forced Adoptions
UK Defence Ministry Investigates Historical Use of RAF Bases by Jeffrey Epstein
Scottish Housing Completions Fall to 11-Year Low
Welsh First Minister Calls for Expanded Devolution Settlement
UK Pledges £50 Million to Expand Domestic Military Drone Capabilities
UK Opens First Commercial Geothermal Plant in Cornwall
Green Party Wins Gorton and Denton By-Election as Labour Falls to Third
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Opens Review of UK-EU Relationship
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%, Adding Pressure on Household Finances
UK Removes VAT From Domestic Electricity Bills to Ease Winter Energy Costs
Counterterrorism Police Arrest Sixth Suspect Over RAF Fairford Incident
UK Councils to Receive Sweeping Planning Powers to Ban New Vape and Betting Shops
Chancellor John Healey Faces Tax and Pension Scrutiny Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Apologise for Accidental Disclosure in High-Profile Investigation
UK Universities Report Record International Enrolment as Housing Pressure Grows
UK Logistics Firms Monitor Rhine Disruption as Low Water Threatens European Supply Chains
UK Food Industry Warns Inflation Could Approach 7%
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and Mandatory Retail Stamps
Scotland Raises Property Taxes and Expands Child Payment in Annual Budget
Greggs Plans Four Factory Closures With 740 Jobs at Risk
OECD Raises UK 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.1%
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Bank of England Faces Rate Debate
Andy Burnham Criticises Brexit and Says Rejoining EU Single Market Remains an Option
UK Imposes New Sanctions on Russian Military Networks and Propagandists
UK Launches Nationwide Early-Release Prison Scheme
Andy Burnham Says Security Services See Signs of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Incident
Manchester City Found Guilty on Premier League Financial Charges After Independent Investigation
Scottish Court to Rule on Bid to Force No-Confidence Vote Against Aberdeen Council Co-Leader
UK Bans Extra Charges for Seating Children Under 12 Beside Accompanying Adults
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and New Licensing Requirements
Greggs to Close Four UK Factories and Cut 740 Jobs
Hundreds of Prisoners Released Early as England and Wales Prisons Reach 98% Capacity
UK Unveils New Russia Sanctions Targeting War Funding and Shadow Fleet
Burnham Says There Are Strong Indications of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Security Breach
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Raises Prospect of Reviewing Britain's Post-Brexit EU Relationship
Markets Price in Bank of England Rate Increases as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Borrowing Costs Climb Toward 5.5% as Global Bond Sell-Off Intensifies
UK-France One-In-One-Out Migration Agreement Expires as London Seeks Alternative Measures
Southwest England Faces Flood Alerts After Heavy Autumn Storms
×