London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 04, 2026

Two indicators slowdown already under way after Bank of England warns of 15-month recession

Two indicators slowdown already under way after Bank of England warns of 15-month recession

The bank rate is now at its highest level since 2008 as the Bank of England warns of tough times ahead - but signs of slowdown are already there.

Just a day after the Bank of England warned of a 15-month recession, there are signs in housing and recruitment that the slowdown is already well under way.

Figures out on Friday showed that house prices fell in July (in monthly terms) for the first time in more than a year, with warnings that the market is likely to weaken further following the bank's hiking of interest rates from 1.25% to 1.75%.

The bank rate is now at its highest level since 2008, as the bank tries to fight inflation which is running at 9.4% - well above its 2% target - and is forecast to pass 13% later this year.

It comes as households face record-breaking increases in energy bills, and mortgage lender Halifax said that this rapidly-spiralling cost of living would have its effect on the market, as buyers look to rein in spending.

In July the average house price stood at £293,221 - down £365 or 0.1% from the previous month's record high. In annual terms, however, prices still rose by 11.8%, compared to the 12.5% seen in June.

Russell Galley, Halifax managing director, said: "House prices are likely to come under more pressure as those market tailwinds fade further and the headwinds of rising interest rates and increased living costs take a firmer hold.

"Therefore a slowing of annual house price inflation still seems the most likely scenario."

It comes after a report from rival lender Nationwide which showed house prices rose in July, but at the slowest monthly pace seen in a year.


Bank of England data has also shown the lowest number of new mortgage approvals in two years during June.

The gloomy outlook is also resulting in fewer staff being hired by businesses, as they too become more cautious.

A study of 400 recruiters by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG showed that businesses - facing increasing costs from energy prices and inflation - are "rightly hesitant" about their hiring plans.

Claire Warnes, of KPMG, said: "The trend of uncertainty in the UK jobs market of the last few months continues, as overall hiring activity saw another slowdown in July.

"Given the challenging economic outlook, employers are rightly hesitant about their hiring plans, but, to compound this, a lack of suitable candidates and an overall skills shortage in most sectors are keeping starting salaries high."


Kate Shoesmith, deputy chief executive of the REC, said: "The jobs market remains solid. Demand for staff continues to rise, as it has done since early 2021, rising in every sector.

"Starting salaries are still growing too, making this a good time for jobseekers to be looking for their next role.

"However, growth in permanent hiring has softened in recent months. We've seen that rising fuel and energy prices, inflation and labour shortages are impacting employer confidence.

"Labour and skills shortages are also restricting opportunities for both the private and public sector to meet consumer demand."


In the past week, the closely-watched PMI surveys have also shown signs of slowdown in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.

It all presents a massive challenge for the next prime minister, as Conservative Party members prepare to choose between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss for the role.

In Sky News's Battle for Number 10 Leadership Special on Thursday night, Ms Truss insisted a recession is not inevitable, adding: "We can change the outcome and we can make it more likely that the economy grows".

When her rival Mr Sunak was asked whether there is anything that can be done about a recession, he said: "Of course there is, of course."

He said "gripping inflation" would be the best way of preventing a recession, saying: "So what I'm not going to do is embark on a borrowing spree worth tens of billions of pounds, put that on the country's credit card, ask our kids and our grandkids to pick up the tab, because that's not right. That's not responsible."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Breeding Tropical Mosquitoes Discovered in East London
Sadiq Khan Agrees to Search of Digital Communications in Palantir Lawsuit
Scottish Protesters Call for Moratorium on AI Data Centre Expansion
Uber Drivers Bring London Class Action Over Algorithmic Management
Reform UK Accepts £4 Million Donation From Cryptocurrency Billionaire Pardoned by Trump
Justice Secretary Tightens Early Release Scheme to Exclude Manslaughter Offenders
Kemi Badenoch Reshuffles Conservative Team as Reform UK Pressure Grows
British Mortgage Rates Rise as Global Bond Sell-Off Pushes Up Borrowing Costs
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026
UK Government Urges Households to Stock Essential Supplies Ahead of Severe El Niño Risk
UK Prepares Targeted Sanctions Over Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Reform UK Faces Electoral and Police Scrutiny Over Foreign Donation Allegations
UK and France Expand Channel Migration Cooperation as Trade Tensions Surface
UK Marks Merchant Navy Day With Tribute to Civilian Seafarers
Burnham Pays Tribute to Two Police Officers Killed on Duty in Northern England
Booking.com Left Fake Downing Street Listing Online for Two Months, Which Says
Burnham and Macron to Review UK-France Cooperation on Channel Crossings
UK Business Confidence Improves Slightly but Investment Concerns Persist
Burnham Faces Pressure Over Future North Sea Oil and Gas Licences
Burnham Pushes Wider English Devolution Through ‘Number Ten North’
British Chambers of Commerce Raises 2026 UK Growth Forecast to 1%
Keir Starmer Resigns as Holborn and St Pancras MP, Triggering By-Election
UK Chancellor Faces Tighter Budget Headroom as Long-Term Borrowing Costs Rise
UK Government Weighs Thames Water Nationalisation as Financial Crisis Deepens
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces First Commons Questions Over Tax and Spending Plans
Eleven British Seafarers Receive Merchant Navy Medal
Which? Creates Fake 10 Downing Street Rental Listing to Expose Booking.com Vetting Weaknesses
BP Appoints New Chairman in Effort to Stabilise Leadership
Aberdeen Sells Hydrogen Bus Fleet at Heavy Loss After Green Transport Experiment
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record as Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Heat
Scotland Pledges to End Temporary Accommodation for Children and Build 111,000 Affordable Homes
DNO Agrees $396 Million Deal to Acquire Capricorn Energy
Uber and Wayve Launch UK’s First Supervised Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in London
Britain Expected to Avoid New US Tariffs Targeting European Union
Middle East Conflict Pushes UK Energy Costs Higher and Revives Inflation Concerns
UK Growth Forecast Cut to 1% Through 2027 as Youth Unemployment Is Projected to Rise
Andy Burnham Links Weak UK Growth to Brexit in First Full Commons Session as Prime Minister
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
UK Business Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Sale Recovers Just Six Pence for Every Pound Invested
Which? Exposes Booking.com Verification Failures With Fake 10 Downing Street Listing
British Business Bank Invests Up to £46 Million in Deep-Tech Startup Fund
Scottish Government Puts Violence Against Women at Center of Legislative Program
FCA Eases UK IPO Rules to Strengthen London’s Listing Market
UK Likely to Avoid Next US Tariff Measures as Washington Targets EU
Macron Visits UK for Bayeux Tapestry Exhibition and Border Security Talks
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts UK Growth Outlook to 1% for 2026 and 2027
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, Triggering By-Election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Unveils Devolution and Cost-of-Living Agenda
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 5.88%
×