London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Mar 15, 2026

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

After well over a year of talks between the UK and the EU it appears that a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is finally around the corner.

The set of post-Brexit trading rules for Northern Ireland has split political opinion since its inception in 2021.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been to Belfast to brief Stormont politicians on what the solution might look like.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - among the protocol's most vocal critics - says progress has been made and describes this as a "big moment" in the path towards a deal.

Now the prime minister will return to the table with the EU, aiming to secure the final stages of an agreement.

So what could a deal actually look like? And will it appease those who oppose the existing set-up?


Green and red lanes


Products that are staying in Northern Ireland will go through a green lane, undergoing fewer checks and less paperwork than those headed for the Republic of Ireland.

The EU had their own terminology for this - an "express lane".

Whatever the label a key question will be to what extent those controls are eased or even eliminated.

For Northern Ireland businesses a bigger issue than physical checks has been increased paperwork, such as customs declarations, so for them a true green lane would have to mean minimal bureaucracy.

A major step to this agreement overall was when the two sides signed off on a UK-designed trade data sharing system.

The EU says this "real-time" information will allow them to better monitor what is actually crossing the Irish Sea and therefore potentially at risk of entering their single market.


The European Court of Justice will retain a role


Under the protocol Northern Ireland continues to follow some EU trade rules.

The European Commission is understood to have made it "crystal clear" to member states that it has kept to its red line - that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will have the final say on single market issues.

The UK's original position was that the ECJ's oversight role be entirely removed.

However expect language that will downplay the court's importance and emphasise other arbitration routes.


"The European Commission is already bringing many fewer enforcement proceedings than it used to," says EU law Prof Catherine Barnard.

"Launching such proceedings isn't popular with member states and takes a lot of time and energy."

It is thought any cases launched within Northern Ireland at least would first be heard in a national court, as is usual among member states.


State aid and VAT


Businesses in Northern Ireland follow EU rules on state aid and VAT.

That means tax breaks and UK government payments to help firms in Northern Ireland must be within limits set by the EU.

Here sources have indicated to the BBC that there will be "fudge" in those areas which have, ultimately, proved less totemic than the Irish Sea trade border and governance.


What next?


When it comes to getting an agreement over the line timings are in flux.

Early next week is being widely talked about with a possible announcement on Tuesday, followed by a House of Commons debate on Wednesday.

Some believe the agreement could be unveiled even earlier, potentially on Monday.

EU ambassadors have been told things could move very quickly and have been put on standby by the European Commission.

However there is the usual dose of caution too with one EU diplomat remarking: "The last miles are the hardest."


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
×