London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

After well over a year of talks between the UK and the EU it appears that a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is finally around the corner.

The set of post-Brexit trading rules for Northern Ireland has split political opinion since its inception in 2021.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been to Belfast to brief Stormont politicians on what the solution might look like.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - among the protocol's most vocal critics - says progress has been made and describes this as a "big moment" in the path towards a deal.

Now the prime minister will return to the table with the EU, aiming to secure the final stages of an agreement.

So what could a deal actually look like? And will it appease those who oppose the existing set-up?


Green and red lanes


Products that are staying in Northern Ireland will go through a green lane, undergoing fewer checks and less paperwork than those headed for the Republic of Ireland.

The EU had their own terminology for this - an "express lane".

Whatever the label a key question will be to what extent those controls are eased or even eliminated.

For Northern Ireland businesses a bigger issue than physical checks has been increased paperwork, such as customs declarations, so for them a true green lane would have to mean minimal bureaucracy.

A major step to this agreement overall was when the two sides signed off on a UK-designed trade data sharing system.

The EU says this "real-time" information will allow them to better monitor what is actually crossing the Irish Sea and therefore potentially at risk of entering their single market.


The European Court of Justice will retain a role


Under the protocol Northern Ireland continues to follow some EU trade rules.

The European Commission is understood to have made it "crystal clear" to member states that it has kept to its red line - that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will have the final say on single market issues.

The UK's original position was that the ECJ's oversight role be entirely removed.

However expect language that will downplay the court's importance and emphasise other arbitration routes.


"The European Commission is already bringing many fewer enforcement proceedings than it used to," says EU law Prof Catherine Barnard.

"Launching such proceedings isn't popular with member states and takes a lot of time and energy."

It is thought any cases launched within Northern Ireland at least would first be heard in a national court, as is usual among member states.


State aid and VAT


Businesses in Northern Ireland follow EU rules on state aid and VAT.

That means tax breaks and UK government payments to help firms in Northern Ireland must be within limits set by the EU.

Here sources have indicated to the BBC that there will be "fudge" in those areas which have, ultimately, proved less totemic than the Irish Sea trade border and governance.


What next?


When it comes to getting an agreement over the line timings are in flux.

Early next week is being widely talked about with a possible announcement on Tuesday, followed by a House of Commons debate on Wednesday.

Some believe the agreement could be unveiled even earlier, potentially on Monday.

EU ambassadors have been told things could move very quickly and have been put on standby by the European Commission.

However there is the usual dose of caution too with one EU diplomat remarking: "The last miles are the hardest."


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×