London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 25, 2025

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

Brexit: What can we expect from a deal on NI Protocol?

After well over a year of talks between the UK and the EU it appears that a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is finally around the corner.

The set of post-Brexit trading rules for Northern Ireland has split political opinion since its inception in 2021.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been to Belfast to brief Stormont politicians on what the solution might look like.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - among the protocol's most vocal critics - says progress has been made and describes this as a "big moment" in the path towards a deal.

Now the prime minister will return to the table with the EU, aiming to secure the final stages of an agreement.

So what could a deal actually look like? And will it appease those who oppose the existing set-up?


Green and red lanes


Products that are staying in Northern Ireland will go through a green lane, undergoing fewer checks and less paperwork than those headed for the Republic of Ireland.

The EU had their own terminology for this - an "express lane".

Whatever the label a key question will be to what extent those controls are eased or even eliminated.

For Northern Ireland businesses a bigger issue than physical checks has been increased paperwork, such as customs declarations, so for them a true green lane would have to mean minimal bureaucracy.

A major step to this agreement overall was when the two sides signed off on a UK-designed trade data sharing system.

The EU says this "real-time" information will allow them to better monitor what is actually crossing the Irish Sea and therefore potentially at risk of entering their single market.


The European Court of Justice will retain a role


Under the protocol Northern Ireland continues to follow some EU trade rules.

The European Commission is understood to have made it "crystal clear" to member states that it has kept to its red line - that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will have the final say on single market issues.

The UK's original position was that the ECJ's oversight role be entirely removed.

However expect language that will downplay the court's importance and emphasise other arbitration routes.


"The European Commission is already bringing many fewer enforcement proceedings than it used to," says EU law Prof Catherine Barnard.

"Launching such proceedings isn't popular with member states and takes a lot of time and energy."

It is thought any cases launched within Northern Ireland at least would first be heard in a national court, as is usual among member states.


State aid and VAT


Businesses in Northern Ireland follow EU rules on state aid and VAT.

That means tax breaks and UK government payments to help firms in Northern Ireland must be within limits set by the EU.

Here sources have indicated to the BBC that there will be "fudge" in those areas which have, ultimately, proved less totemic than the Irish Sea trade border and governance.


What next?


When it comes to getting an agreement over the line timings are in flux.

Early next week is being widely talked about with a possible announcement on Tuesday, followed by a House of Commons debate on Wednesday.

Some believe the agreement could be unveiled even earlier, potentially on Monday.

EU ambassadors have been told things could move very quickly and have been put on standby by the European Commission.

However there is the usual dose of caution too with one EU diplomat remarking: "The last miles are the hardest."


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
A new faith called Robotheism claims artificial intelligence isn’t just smart but actually God itself
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner Purchases Third Property Amid Housing Tax Reforms Debate
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
×