London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Dec 24, 2025

Brexit Britain braces for election while waiting for EU decision

Brexit Britain braces for election while waiting for EU decision

Anxious wait drawing out in Britain's corridors of power as EU leaders set to decide whether to grant UK Brexit delay.

The leaders of 27 European Union nations are still considering whether or not to grant the United Kingdom a delay over its departure from the bloc - and, crucially, how long such an extension should last.

Their deliberations, which reached no conclusion on Wednesday and will restart on Friday, come as the UK is mired in a bitter stalemate over Brexit. There is an impasse between those who want to leave the EU immediately, with no deal; those who want a departure at some point soon, once a divorce deal has been agreed; and those who want to remain in the world's largest trading bloc.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has lost his government's razor-thin working majority after sacking a "rebel alliance" of 21 MPs who defied him to force through legislation aimed at blocking a "no-deal" Brexit on October 31.

Johnson has also lost the support of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has helped prop up the minority Conservative government since the UK's 2017 general election but is at odds with the prime minister over his Brexit plans, which they see as a betrayal.

In particular, the DUP believe the Brexit deal brokered by Johnson with the EU threatens to undermine the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland by placing a form of border down the Irish Sea, effectively leaving Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with the Republic of Ireland and the EU, but without any representation in the bloc..

"The Johnson government's bluff - 'We leave On 31 October, deal or no deal' - has been called," Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, told Al Jazeera.

"It has been called by the European Union, by Parliament, by its former Northern Irish DUP partner, and by the courts."


An election looms

While European Council President Donald Tusk urged EU leaders to back a delay - and the bloc's diplomats have been briefing that a three-month delay remains most likely - Johnson is reportedly readying a push for a snap election. Any new poll could change the parliamentary arithmetic and help Johnson ease his Withdrawal Agreement Bill into law, finally completing a tortuous phase in the UK's three-and-a-half-year Brexit saga.

"There is a 47 percent chance of a general election being held in the final months of 2019," Jon Worth, politics lecturer at the College of Europe in Bruges, told Al Jazeera.

"If it is to happen before Christmas, it needs to be called as soon as possible."

There is a 13 percent chance of an election in early 2020, he added, making a combined likelihood of an imminent election 60 percent. Worth - who has won online plaudits for his series of Brexit flowcharts - says the other main likelihood, with a 36 percent chance, is that the current stalemate drags on for months to come.


Pause for thought

Johnson pressed the pause button on mammoth legislation to enact his Brexit deal, after nail-bitingly close votes on Tuesday which saw MPs accepting the deal in principle, but rejecting a three-day schedule to debate hundreds of pages of complex legal documentation.

And while he is not in a position to win much support within the House of Commons, Labour, the principal opposition party, also fails to command consensus - and options are few.

"I think it's unlikely that the numbers can be found for a second referendum in this Parliament," said Jonathan Lis, deputy director of Influence, a British think-tank set up by a former Conservative Party communications chief.

"Even if the DUP comes on board, which is doubtful, there are too many Labour MPs who oppose it," he told Al Jazeera.

"But in a general election, it is possible that Labour and the Liberal Democrats could collectively win more seats than the Conservatives - particularly if the Leave vote splits between the Tories and Brexit Party. Right now, it's simply too unpredictable to call either way."

An election would need a Brexit delay until at least the end of January.

Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who favours such a three-month extension, told Dublin's parliament that if no consensus could be found among the 27 European leaders they may have an emergency summit next Monday.

"My bags are always packed for Brussels and packed they are again," Varadkar said.

If a January extension is agreed by the EU nations - and it has to be unanimous - it's game on for the election. If the October 31 deadline is only agreed by a couple of weeks, thought to be France's preferred option, parliamentary debates over Johnson's Brexit plan will take on a new intensity.

"Now, Boris [Johnson] faces the choice: drop the bluff and genuinely pursue a deal through November," Lucas said. "Or it can double down on its gamble and go for a general election with the line, 'We're the group defending the will of the people for a Brexit that will never happen - in other words, for no-deal'.

"Because the biggest bluff of all is that there is a form of Brexit that will benefit the UK. There isn't: there is only economic shock, social tension, and international isolation.

"But can the government hide the economic, social, and international reality long enough to get back into office - and take what is left of the UK off the edge of the cliff?"

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
×