London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Sep 14, 2025

What now for Britain's economy – a new direction, or business as usual?

What now for Britain's economy – a new direction, or business as usual?

The coronavirus crisis provides an opportunity to stop two centuries of decline. But that’s going to take a lot of courage
The day the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a global pandemic was also the occasion of Rishi Sunak’s budget. Announcing an extra £12bn to fight the virus, Britain’s newly appointed chancellor said the measures were “temporary, timely and targeted”.

That was less than six months ago, but it now feels like a long time. Within days of the budget, Sunak’s three-Ts approach became redundant. The economy was in a deep freeze, and the country had gone into full lockdown.

To give the chancellor his due, Sunak then acted fast and big, putting in place schemes that would help households and businesses through the crisis. When the shortcomings of hurriedly assembled policies were pointed out, he was happy to do some running repairs, regardless of the cost. And over the past six months, the bill has been getting bigger and bigger.

At the time of the budget, Sunak expected to borrow around £60bn for the whole of the 2020-21 financial year. In the first four months of 2020, the government has run a budget deficit of £150bn.

This emergency action was only ever going to be part of the story. As you would expect from a country that found itself unexpectedly under attack, the response had to come in phases: first ensuring survival, then winning the war, then finally putting right the problems that had left the nation vulnerable in the first place.

Phase one is over, and has been for some time. Although the economy contracted by 20% in the second quarter of the year, the collapse was concentrated in a relatively brief period between late March and early May. Since then, the economy has been growing again and is likely to have expanded by at least 15% in the current quarter.

Phase two is going to be longer and trickier – in part because Sunak’s decision to make businesses pay a portion of their wage bill, irrespective of whether they are trading or not, and to phase out the furlough scheme entirely by the end of October, are classic unforced errors.

Having shown commendable flexibility when putting together his rescue package, Sunak has been hardline in his insistence that there must be an end to the scheme in less than two months, come what may. This will cost jobs, as the chancellor knows full well, because at the last count one in eight workers – roughly 3 million people – were still being furloughed.

Sunak’s response has been twofold. Firstly, he has announced a £2bn kickstart job creation programme for 16- to 24-year-olds. The Federation of Small Businesses says this will not be nearly enough to prevent a “lost generation” of young people from the Covid-19 recession, which sadly would appear to be all too true. There has not been a tougher climate for school-leavers and graduates in decades.

Secondly, the chancellor has sought to get the economy running hot through time-limited cuts in VAT and stamp duty, and his eat out to help out scheme. This is a tried and tested formula: get people into the shops and bars, boost demand for houses, and stimulate a feelgood factor.

In the short-term, this strategy might be regarded as a success. Mortgage approvals more than doubled in July. The Nationwide building society reported the biggest monthly increase in house prices in 16 years in August. The Monday-to-Wednesday takings for the restaurants that have taken part in eat out to help out are well up on last year.

But even if (and it’s a big if) these measures have a lasting effect, they do nothing to address longer-term structural problems with the economy. In fact, they threaten to make these worse by increasing the economy’s dependency on import-driven consumption and an overheated property market.

A potted modern economic history of Britain goes like this. The country industrialises in the 18th century and becomes top dog in the decades after the Napoleonic wars. It’s already suffering from relative decline by the second half of the 19th century.

It never really addresses problems of 20th-century industrial decay, because of smug complacency fostered by victories in two world wars. It has a touching belief in quick fixes to address poor skills, weak investment, rotten management, low levels of innovation and a short-termist financial system.

All of this has led to flatlining productivity and an abundance of low-paid, insecure jobs. Britain’s failure to move with the times is summed up in one fact: the market capitalisation of one US tech giant – Apple – this week exceeded that of the 100 biggest quoted companies on the London Stock Exchange.

The Covid-19 crisis revealed that Britain was ill-prepared for a pandemic. It was deficient in both human and physical capital. It made a vague pass at having strategies for energy, industry and skills, but no more than that.

Once the scale of the crisis became obvious, the Treasury and Bank of England did as much as they could to mitigate the impact. Even so, the past six months have already left scars: even weaker productivity, a loss of schooling, and zombie companies kept alive by low interest rates and Treasury-backed loans.

The country is now at a fork in the road. One way leads to the place on the map known as “business as usual”. This involves talking a lot about the need for fundamental change and the importance of doing better next time, but in reality means carrying on as before.

The other route offers potentially greater rewards, but is far tougher because it requires behavioural change on the part of government, companies and individuals. It means a national business plan, ambition, hard graft and tons more patience than has been shown in the past. Don’t hold your breath.

Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
The German Owner of Politico Mathias Döpfner Eyes Further U.S. Media Expansion After Axel Springer Restructuring
Suspect Arrested: Utah Man in Custody for Charlie Kirk’s Fatal Shooting
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
×