London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 20, 2026

Warning of economic downturn as interest rates rise

Warning of economic downturn as interest rates rise

The Bank of England has warned the UK faces a "sharp economic slowdown" this year as it raises interest rates to try to stem the pace of rising prices.

Rates rose to 1% from 0.75%, their highest level since 2009 and the fourth consecutive increase since December.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - is at a 30-year high and set to hit 10% by the autumn as the Ukraine war drives up fuel and energy prices.

As a result, households are reining in their spending which is hitting growth.

Following the latest rise in interest rates, two million homeowners will see an immediate increase in their monthly mortgage repayments with other loans potentially getting more expensive too.

But Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey defended raising rates at a time when the cost of living is increasing, saying that the risk of letting inflation get out of control was higher.

Inflation reached 7% in March - more than three times the Bank's target of 2%.

"We are in a very difficult position at the moment," Mr Bailey told the BBC.

"We're walking a very narrow path now between inflation on the one side, which is much higher than we want it to be, and on the other side very big external shocks which are causing a big loss of real income for people and businesses in this country."

As a result of the soaring prices, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - which sets rates - said there had been "a material deterioration in the outlook" for UK economic growth.

The bank's policymakers now expect the UK economy to shrink rather than expand in the final three months of this year. It is also expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023, down from its previous forecast of 1.25% growth.

While that would not technically be a recession - defined as the economy getting smaller for two consecutive quarters - it would leave the UK at a real risk of one.

Moreover, the MPC believes unemployment will rise as businesses start to struggle, climbing from 3.6% this year to around 5% in 2024.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said rising energy costs will cause 'hardship'


Raising rates makes it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow. The idea is that people start spending less, helping cool demand for goods and services and, in turn, slowing the pace of price rises.

But economists have warned that increases in interest rates may have little effect given rising global oil and gas prices.

The Bank's MPC expects inflation to hit 9% in the coming months - up from its previous forecast of 8% - and to reach 10.25% by the end of the year.

It said the impact of the Ukraine war on household gas and electricity prices was largely to blame, following the increase in the energy price cap in April and a further expected rise in October which could push household bills up to £2,800 a year.

Mr Bailey said there could be a 40% rise in the price cap based on current prices.

"I must say that I recognise the hardship this will cause for many people in the UK, particularly those on the lowest incomes, often with little or no savings," he said.

Following the Bank's forecasts the pound fell by more than a cent against the US dollar to below $1.24, its lowest level since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in mid-2020.


'I could not believe energy bill rise'



Jay Lane, who lives with his wife and two sons in Long Eaton near Nottingham, said his family's monthly energy bill had more than doubled from £127 to £282 after the price cap was raised in April.

"The first day I got the quote from our supplier, I was sitting at my desk and I literally slid off the chair because I could not believe what I was seeing," the 46-year-old told the BBC.

With their food and fuel bills also going up, Mr Lane, who is a web developer, said the family was cutting back on holidays and non-essential spending to make up for rising costs.

His eldest son is missing out on a camping trip abroad with his Scouts group so the family can afford a holiday this year, which Mr Lane said was "pretty tough for him".

They are also trying to use less energy by avoiding using their tumble dryer and switching the TV and other devices off standby when they're not being used.

"They're small amounts, but over the years it's going to add up," he said.

With people having to spend more money on necessities, this year will see the largest fall in household disposable income since 2011, and the second largest since records began in 1964, the Bank added.

However, it expects inflation will peak this year before falling back to 3.5% in 2023 and to 1.5% by 2024.

Russia is one of the world's top oil and gas producers and its invasion of Ukraine has driven up global energy prices amid concerns about disruption to supplies.

Russia and Ukraine are also major producers of commodities like metals, fertilisers and foodstuffs, the prices of which have rocketed.

A majority of six members of the Bank's MPC voted to lift interest rates to 1% but the remaining three members wanted a steeper rise to 1.25%.

The MPC's forecasts are based on market expectations that interest rates will rise as high as 2.5% in mid-2023 before falling back again.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
London’s Housing Starts Collapse as Planning and Building Costs Stall Development
Charlie Sheen’s Daughter: "My Dad Didn’t Buy Me a House, My Breasts Bought It"
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Jingye Demands Full Compensation After Britain illegally Nationalized British Steel
Just Another Liar or a Robin Hood? Andy Burnham Pledges Cost-of-Living Help in First Speech as UK Prime Minister
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Police Block Cockroach Janta Party’s March to Parliament as Education Protests Intensify
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
Josh Kerr Breaks Twenty-Seven-Year World Mile Record at London Diamond League
Thames Water Crisis Deepens as South East Water Outages Hit Thousands in Kent
EU Ban on Destroying Unsold Clothing Forces British Fashion Brands to Change Operations
UK Government Confirms Existing North Sea Oil and Gas Licences Will Be Honoured
UK Covid Inquiry Finds Nearly Ten Billion Pounds Lost in Pandemic Protective Equipment Procurement
Thames Water Moves Toward Possible Temporary Nationalisation Amid Rescue Plan Dispute
Andy Burnham Cancels One Point Eight Billion Pound Digital ID Programme After Taking Office
UK Government Takes British Steel Into Full Public Ownership to Protect Jobs and Supply Chains
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister and Pledges Focus on Living Costs and Public Services
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Singapore Considers Lower Taxes for Fund Managers as Hong Kong Intensifies Talent Contest
US Retaliates Against Iran After Two American Troops Killed in Jordan
Bank of Asia BVI Enters Court-Supervised Liquidation After Regulators Find It Insolvent
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Iran Claims It Destroyed Bahrain’s Main Artificial Intelligence Center in Missile and Drone Strike
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate Who Turned "Toxic Masculinity" Into a Brand Arrested in Miami as Britain Seeks Their Extradition
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
China’s Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Narrows the Gap With Anthropic Through Scale, Openness and Lower Cost
Gold and Cash Seizure Puts Indonesia’s Senior Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Under Investigation
The Ledger Will Not Trust on Faith
Bank of England Warns Climate Shocks Could Trigger Sudden Asset Repricing
UK Treasury Places Microsoft, Google, AWS and Oracle Under New Financial Resilience Rules
Scottish Government Faces Pressure Over Delays in Vulnerable Group Background Checks
Crown Prosecution Service Authorises Additional Charges Against Andrew and Tristan Tate
NHS Approves At-Home Cancer Treatments for Rare Blood Disorders
Bank of England Gains Oversight of Major Cloud Providers Supporting UK Financial System
UK Government Plans Major Overhaul of English Local Councils Through New Unitary Authorities
British Steel Nationalisation Dispute Escalates as Chinese Owner Jingye Seeks Compensation
Bank of England Signals Interest Rates Will Stay High as It Warns of Financial Risks From Climate and AI
Trump Administration Pressures Banks to Restrict Financial Access for Undocumented Immigrants
Passenger Bound for Germany Refused to Sit Beside a Woman on a Plane — Then Slapped a Flight Attendant
Ukraine’s Leadership Rift Spills Into the Streets as Protesters Target Army Chief
×