London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 24, 2026

Warning of economic downturn as interest rates rise

Warning of economic downturn as interest rates rise

The Bank of England has warned the UK faces a "sharp economic slowdown" this year as it raises interest rates to try to stem the pace of rising prices.

Rates rose to 1% from 0.75%, their highest level since 2009 and the fourth consecutive increase since December.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - is at a 30-year high and set to hit 10% by the autumn as the Ukraine war drives up fuel and energy prices.

As a result, households are reining in their spending which is hitting growth.

Following the latest rise in interest rates, two million homeowners will see an immediate increase in their monthly mortgage repayments with other loans potentially getting more expensive too.

But Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey defended raising rates at a time when the cost of living is increasing, saying that the risk of letting inflation get out of control was higher.

Inflation reached 7% in March - more than three times the Bank's target of 2%.

"We are in a very difficult position at the moment," Mr Bailey told the BBC.

"We're walking a very narrow path now between inflation on the one side, which is much higher than we want it to be, and on the other side very big external shocks which are causing a big loss of real income for people and businesses in this country."

As a result of the soaring prices, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - which sets rates - said there had been "a material deterioration in the outlook" for UK economic growth.

The bank's policymakers now expect the UK economy to shrink rather than expand in the final three months of this year. It is also expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023, down from its previous forecast of 1.25% growth.

While that would not technically be a recession - defined as the economy getting smaller for two consecutive quarters - it would leave the UK at a real risk of one.

Moreover, the MPC believes unemployment will rise as businesses start to struggle, climbing from 3.6% this year to around 5% in 2024.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said rising energy costs will cause 'hardship'


Raising rates makes it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow. The idea is that people start spending less, helping cool demand for goods and services and, in turn, slowing the pace of price rises.

But economists have warned that increases in interest rates may have little effect given rising global oil and gas prices.

The Bank's MPC expects inflation to hit 9% in the coming months - up from its previous forecast of 8% - and to reach 10.25% by the end of the year.

It said the impact of the Ukraine war on household gas and electricity prices was largely to blame, following the increase in the energy price cap in April and a further expected rise in October which could push household bills up to £2,800 a year.

Mr Bailey said there could be a 40% rise in the price cap based on current prices.

"I must say that I recognise the hardship this will cause for many people in the UK, particularly those on the lowest incomes, often with little or no savings," he said.

Following the Bank's forecasts the pound fell by more than a cent against the US dollar to below $1.24, its lowest level since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in mid-2020.


'I could not believe energy bill rise'



Jay Lane, who lives with his wife and two sons in Long Eaton near Nottingham, said his family's monthly energy bill had more than doubled from £127 to £282 after the price cap was raised in April.

"The first day I got the quote from our supplier, I was sitting at my desk and I literally slid off the chair because I could not believe what I was seeing," the 46-year-old told the BBC.

With their food and fuel bills also going up, Mr Lane, who is a web developer, said the family was cutting back on holidays and non-essential spending to make up for rising costs.

His eldest son is missing out on a camping trip abroad with his Scouts group so the family can afford a holiday this year, which Mr Lane said was "pretty tough for him".

They are also trying to use less energy by avoiding using their tumble dryer and switching the TV and other devices off standby when they're not being used.

"They're small amounts, but over the years it's going to add up," he said.

With people having to spend more money on necessities, this year will see the largest fall in household disposable income since 2011, and the second largest since records began in 1964, the Bank added.

However, it expects inflation will peak this year before falling back to 3.5% in 2023 and to 1.5% by 2024.

Russia is one of the world's top oil and gas producers and its invasion of Ukraine has driven up global energy prices amid concerns about disruption to supplies.

Russia and Ukraine are also major producers of commodities like metals, fertilisers and foodstuffs, the prices of which have rocketed.

A majority of six members of the Bank's MPC voted to lift interest rates to 1% but the remaining three members wanted a steeper rise to 1.25%.

The MPC's forecasts are based on market expectations that interest rates will rise as high as 2.5% in mid-2023 before falling back again.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Give Ukraine Classified Storm Shadow Blueprints for Domestic Missile Production
UK Graduate Job Vacancies Plunge 45% to Lowest Levels on Record
Government Audit Reveals Pressure on UK Hospitality From Business Rates and Rising Costs
Kindertransport Survivor Prepares to Revisit European Sites Linked to Her Family’s Wartime Separation
Northern England Transport Operators Strengthen Contingency Plans as Travel Demand Rises
New Implant Trials Offer Treatment Prospects for Patients With Refractory Angina
South Wales Reviews Wildfire Response After Exceptionally Dry Summer
UK Treasury Prepares Autumn Fiscal Statement Amid Spending and Defense Pressures
Norfolk Records First Wild Beaver Births in More Than Five Hundred Years
Historic Portrait of Benjamin Disraeli Reported Missing From Parliament’s Art Collection
Five People, Including Police Officers, Killed in A66 Crash as Families Pay Tribute
Most English Secondary Schools Found to Fall Short of National Healthy Food Standards
UK Think Tank Says Productivity Growth May Be Stronger Than Official Data Shows
Reform Party Proposes Lower Social Housing Priority for Foreign-Born UK Citizens
UK Government Plans Business Rate Overhaul to Ease Pressure on Pubs and Hotels
New Daily Diabetes and Weight-Loss Pill Launches Across NHS Pharmacies in England
UK Graduate Job Vacancies Fall to Lowest Level in a Decade
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Visits Kyiv to Reaffirm Long-Term Military Support for Ukraine
Iranian Hackers Shut Down British Power Plant for Four Days in Landmark Cyber Attack
Novak Djokovic Reveals Relentless Self-Doubt and Rejects Retirement in New Documentary
Trump Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods After Bilateral Trade Talks Collapse
First Bus Bars Unaccompanied Under-Sixteens From Evening Services in Stoke-on-Trent
Lithium-Ion Battery Fires Cost UK Waste Sector About One Billion Pounds a Year
Reform UK Proposes Lower Social Housing Priority for Foreign-Born Naturalised Citizens
UK Government Deploys AI Drones in Crackdown on Illegal Waste Dumping
EU Biometric Border Checks Cause Disruption for British Travellers and Freight Operators
UK Expands Voluntary Drug Treatment Programme for Sex Offenders to Twenty Prisons
CrossCountry Cancels Most Services After Major Power Failure at Control Centre
Met Office Warns El Niño Could Bring Severe Autumn Storms and Higher Food Prices
Resolution Foundation Says UK Productivity Growth May Be Stronger Than Official Data Suggest
Andy Burnham Proposes Giving Regional Mayors Greater Planning Powers
UK Government Overhauls Planning Rules to Accelerate Housing Near Transport Links
Russia Withdraws Ambassador to Britain and Warns of Retaliation Over UK Drone Supplies to Ukraine
Iran-Linked Hackers Blamed for Cyberattack That Shut Down UK Power Plant
Andy Burnham Pledges UK Support for Long-Range Missile Production in Ukraine
Australia Combines Indigenous Fire Knowledge With Satellite Tech to Combat Catastrophic Wildfires
Father and Son Jailed in Scotland Over £900,000 Airport Cannabis Smuggling Operation
UK Fraud Reports Surge Sevenfold as Criminals Exploit QR Codes in Parking Meters and Phishing Emails
Brighton Thrash Aston Villa in Four-Goal Opening Half as Manchester City Trail Bournemouth
Erin Patterson Appeals Triple Murder Convictions After Hotel Mixed Sequestered Jury With Prosecution
Bank of England Maintains Close Watch on Banks Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Warm Weather and Tourism Support UK High Street Spending During Summer
Westminster Faces Continuing Political and Administrative Fallout From Epstein Files Release
UK Invests in Domestic Defence Drone Manufacturing to Strengthen Military Supply Chains
Around Five Million UK Households Face Higher Mortgage Payments by 2028
Bluetongue Virus Cases Rise Across England, Wales and Scotland
UK Government Holds First National Day for Victims and Survivors of Terrorism
Historic Summer Droughts Threaten UK Harvests and Put Further Pressure on Food Prices
UK Economy Holds Up in Second Quarter Despite Global Energy and Geopolitical Pressures
UK Opens National Artificial Intelligence Safety Testing Facility
×