London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Feb 16, 2026

Third of world in recession this year, IMF head warns

Third of world in recession this year, IMF head warns

A third of the global economy will be in recession this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
Kristalina Georgieva said 2023 will be "tougher" than last year as the US, EU and China see their economies slow.

It comes as the war in Ukraine, rising prices, higher interest rates and the spread of Covid in China weigh on the global economy.

In October the IMF cut its global economic growth outlook for 2023.

"We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession," Ms Georgieva said on the CBS news program Face the Nation.

"Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people," she added.

Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody's Analytics in Sydney, gave the BBC her assessment of the world economy.

"While our baseline avoids a global recession over the next year, odds of one are uncomfortably high. Europe, however, will not escape recession and the US is teetering on the verge," she said.

The IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023 in October, due to the war in Ukraine as well as higher interest rates as central banks around the world attempt to rein in rising prices.

Since then China has scrapped its zero-Covid policy and started to reopen its economy, even as coronavirus infections have spread rapidly in the country.

Ms Georgieva warned that China, the world's second largest economy, would face a difficult start to 2023.

"For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative," she said.

The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. They work together to try to stabilise the global economy. One of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system.

Ms Georgieva's comments will be alarming for people around the world, not least in Asia which endured a difficult year in 2022.

Inflation has been steadily rising across the region, largely because of the war in Ukraine, while higher interest rates have also hit households and business.

Figures released over the weekend pointed to weakness in the Chinese economy at the end of 2022.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for December showed that China's factory activity shrank for the third month in a row and at the fastest rate in almost three years as coronavirus infections spread in the country's factories.

In the same month home prices in 100 cities fell for the sixth month in a row, according to a survey by one of the country's largest independent property research firms, China Index Academy.

On Saturday, in his first public comments since the change in policy, President Xi Jinping called for more effort and unity as China enters what he called a "new phase".

The downturn in the US also means there is less demand for the products that are made in China and other Asian countries including Thailand and Vietnam.

Higher interest rates also make borrowing more expensive - so for both these reasons companies may choose not to invest in expanding their businesses.

The lack of growth can trigger investors to pull money out of an economy and so countries, especially poorer ones, have less cash to pay for crucial imports like food and energy.

In these kinds of slowdowns currencies can lose value against those of more prosperous economies, compounding the issue.

The impact of higher interest rates on loans affects economies at the government level too - especially emerging markets, which may struggle to repay their debts.

For decades the Asia-Pacific region has depended on China as a major trading partner and for economic support in times of crisis.

Now Asian economies are facing the lasting economic effects of how China has handled the pandemic.

The manufacture of products such as Tesla electric cars and Apple iPhones may get back on track as Beijing ends zero-Covid.

But renewed demand for commodities like oil and iron ore is likely to further increase prices just as inflation appeared to have peaked.

"China's relaxed domestic Covid restrictions are not a silver bullet. The transition will be bumpy and a source of volatility at least through the March quarter," Ms Ell said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK’s Top Prosecutor Says ‘No One Is Above the Law’ as Police Review Claims Against Ex-Prince Andrew
Businessman Adam Brooks weighs in on the reports that the US is set to help Hamit Coskun flee the UK, over free speech concerns
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi Releases 3.5 Million Pages of Jeffrey Epstein Case Files
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Comment on European allies report blaming Russia for killing late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny using toxin from poison dart frogs
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
UK Quran Burner May Receive Asylum in the US Amid Legal Challenges
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Prince William Meets Saudi Crown Prince as Epstein-Andrew Fallout Casts Shadow
Starmer Calls for Renewed ‘Hard Power’ Investment at European Security Summit
UK Police Establish National Taskforce to Handle Domestic Epstein-Linked Allegations
UK Court Rules Ban on Palestine Action Unlawful in Major Free Speech Test
UK Faces Prospect of Net Migration Turning Negative as Economic Impact Looms
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
Pentagon Reviews Anthropic Partnership After Claude AI Reportedly Used in Operation Targeting Nicolás Maduro
President Donald Trump and Hip-Hop’s Political Realignment: Pardons, Public Endorsements, and the Struggle Over Cultural Influence
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
Goldman Sachs and DP World Executive Resignations: Elite-Reputation Risk and Corporate Governance Fallout From the Epstein Disclosures
‘Amelia’: The UK Government’s Anti-Extremism Game Villain Who Became a Protest Symbol
Peter Mandelson Asked to Testify Before US Congress Over Jeffrey Epstein Links
Walmart's Earnings and UK Economic Data Highlight Upcoming Financial Trends
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
SpaceX's New Vision: Lunar City Takes Precedence Over Mars Colonization
OpenAI and DeepCent Superintelligence Race: Artificial General Intelligence and AI Agents as a National Security Arms Race
Document Suggests Prince Andrew Shared UK Briefing on Afghan Investment Opportunities with Jeffrey Epstein
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
McDonald's Shortens Breakfast Hours in Australia Due to Egg Shortage
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Beijing Brands UK Hong Kong Visa Expansion ‘Despicable and Reprehensible’ After Jimmy Lai Sentencing
Tesco Chief Warns UK Is ‘Sleepwalking’ Toward a Joblessness Crisis
Trump’s ‘Act of Great Stupidity’ Comment on UK Chagos Deal Reverberates Through Diplomacy and Strategy
New U.S. filings say Jeffrey Epstein repaid Les Wexner one hundred million dollars after theft allegation
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledges 2012 visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island as lawmakers scrutinise past ties
Helsing and Stark Defence loitering-munition drones and Germany’s race to industrialise battlefield autonomy
UK orders deletion of Courtsdesk court-data archive, reigniting the fight over who controls public justice records
UK Police Review Fresh Claims Involving Prince Andrew as Senior Royals Respond to Epstein Files
Keir Starmer’s Premiership Faces Unprecedented Strain as Epstein Fallout Deepens
Starmer Vows to Stay in Office as UK Government Faces Turmoil After Epstein Fallout
China and UK Signal Tentative Reset with Commitment to Steadier, Professionally Managed Relations
UK Confirms Imminent Increase in ETA Fee to £20 as Entry Rules Tighten
UK Signals Possible Seizure of Russia-Linked ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker in Escalation of Sanctions Enforcement
Epstein Scandal Piles Unprecedented Pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Leadership
UK’s ‘Most Romantic Village’ Celebrates Valentine’s Day and Explores the Festival’s Rich History
The Implications of Expanding Voting Rights to Non-EU Foreign Residents in France
Ghislaine Maxwell to Testify Before US Congress on February 9
Al.com Acquired by Crypto.com Founder for $70 Million
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
×