London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Aug 24, 2025

NHS tracing app 'prevented thousands of deaths'

NHS tracing app 'prevented thousands of deaths'

The NHS contact-tracing app had a significant impact on lowering the spread of the coronavirus in the UK, a peer-reviewed paper has found.

Researchers estimate the app prevented hundreds of thousands of cases of the disease, and thousands of deaths.

"On average, each confirmed case who consented to notification of their contacts through the app prevented one new case," the paper claims.

The research has been accepted for publication by the journal Nature.

Some of the researchers were themselves involved in the creation of the NHS contact-tracing app, and had previously released some of the estimates.

But the inclusion in Nature means the paper has now been peer-reviewed by other academics. It has been made available as a preview of papers due for publication.

Millions of notifications


The paper covers the time between the app's launch on 24 September last year until the end of 2020. It was "used regularly" by 16.5 million people - about 28% of the UK population, the research says.

It works by using a smartphone's sensors to measure how close a user is - and for how long - to other app users. If one of those people tests positive for coronavirus, the app can issue an alert telling those who have been in close contact to self-isolate.

It sent about 1.7 million "exposure notifications" after 560,000 app users tested positive, the research paper said.

They estimate that every 1% increase in app users resulted in cases being reduced by between 0.8% and 2.3%.

The difference between those two numbers comes down to two different ways the team used to calculate the impact of the app.

The first used a "modelling" approach, making assumptions about transmission and how strictly people stuck to quarantine. The second involved looking at data from local authorities on actual cases. Both were compared to how widely the app was used to estimate its impact.

Researchers said the number of cases prevented was 284,000 on the modelling approach, and 594,000 using the statistical one. That translated to 4,200 or 8,700 prevented deaths respectively.

"On balance, an effect size between the two estimates seems most likely," the researchers said.

App 'awareness'


But they also noted that there could have been another "genuine, albeit indirect, effect of the app".

They suggested that "users [could] maintain a greater distance from others than they otherwise would have done, aware that the app monitors distance and could later advise quarantine.

"This would mean that our modelling estimate... is too low, and our [higher] statistical estimate is more accurate," they suggested.

The research paper also revealed some info about how the app was used.

It was more widely used in areas that were "more rural, with less poverty", and the effect on reducing transmission was larger after the significant changes to the way the app's tech worked in October - something the researchers referred to as "a significant upgrade".

Before the upgrade, the app had faced a series of struggles. Initially, the UK opted to build its own system rather than the widely-used built-in Apple-Google system offered by the tech giants, before reversing course.

When it was launched, it emerged some older phones could not run the app, and the contact tracing could at times be inaccurate. It also faced resistance over misplaced concerns the tracking functionality could somehow be accessed by police.

More recently, the entire Test and Trace operation - including manual contact tracing, which has similar rates of infection to those alerted by the app - has been heavily criticised by politicians as having "no clear impact" despite a multi-billion budget.

This latest research suggests that the app, taken by itself, has had some effect.

But the researchers also warned about placing too much faith in the system.

"Digital tracing is not a substitute for manual tracing: both are valuable," the paper says.

"It is not a substitute for social distancing or face masks: control of the epidemic requires all available interventions to work together."


WATCH: What is contact tracing and how does it work?


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
William and Kate Are Moving House – and the New Neighbors Were Evicted
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
×