London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

The IFS has warned that the prime minister is putting the public finances on an "unsustainable path" with her plan to slash taxes while increasing borrowing to fund energy support packages.

Liz Truss is putting the public finances on a "unsustainable path" with her plans to slash taxes while capping energy bills, a leading economic think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that the combination of higher spending and tax cuts means government borrowing is expected to hit £100bn a year - more than double the official forecasts last March.

With debt potentially set on an "ever-rising path", the IFS said the prime minister's repeated claims that reducing tax rates would lead to sustained economic growth was "a gamble at best".

IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said: "Under the new prime minister's plans, the fiscal targets legislated in January would be missed and while we would get to enjoy lower taxes now, ever-increasing debt would eventually prove unsustainable."

The warning came just hours after Ms Truss told bosses of American multinationals that her tax cuts are "just the start" of a long-term plan to "simplify" Britain's taxes as she tries to lure investment.

As well as reversing the hike in national insurance contributions and scrapping a planned increase in corporation tax, it has been reported that the stamp duty could be cut when Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sets out his mini-budget on Friday.

Ms Truss told leaders of firms including Google, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase that the chancellor would be laying out "simplification" measures that would "get more businesses going in the UK" and also "encourage more people to go into work".

"While this is just the start, our long-term plan is to simplify Britain's taxes and to make us a better place to invest and be unashamedly pro-business," the prime minister said, according to a transcript provided by Number 10.

The chancellor is also due to lay out the expected costs of the energy price freeze - to be funded by government borrowing - in his fiscal statement on Friday.

The IFS said the final bill for the energy price cap was "highly uncertain" but could be £100bn over the next two years.

It was also announced today that wholesale energy costs for businesses will be slashed by up to half their expected price through the winter months - in a move expected to cost tens of billions of pounds.

Meanwhile, the reduction in revenue from the changes to national insurance and corporation tax will cost the exchequer around £30bn a year.

At the same time, rising inflation is pushing up spending on debt interest as well as state pensions and most working age benefits, while Ms Truss has also pledged to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.

As a result, the IFS said that even after the energy price guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, borrowing would be running at around £100bn a year - more than £60bn higher than was forecast in March.

At around 3.5% of national income, that would leave borrowing nearly double the 1.9% it averaged in the 60 years to the global crash in 2008.

Almost half this increase would be due to the tax cuts - while if they do not go ahead the current budget would be forecast to remain in balance, the IFS said.

Ms Truss has faced criticism that her tax cuts will disproportionately benefit the rich - but she told Sky News she is willing to be 'unpopular' in order to get the economy growing again.

However, the IFS said she "should not underestimate the scale of the challenge".

The think tank said: "There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Marks Merchant Navy Day With Tribute to Civilian Seafarers
Burnham Pays Tribute to Two Police Officers Killed on Duty in Northern England
Booking.com Left Fake Downing Street Listing Online for Two Months, Which Says
Burnham and Macron to Review UK-France Cooperation on Channel Crossings
UK Business Confidence Improves Slightly but Investment Concerns Persist
Burnham Faces Pressure Over Future North Sea Oil and Gas Licences
Burnham Pushes Wider English Devolution Through ‘Number Ten North’
British Chambers of Commerce Raises 2026 UK Growth Forecast to 1%
Keir Starmer Resigns as Holborn and St Pancras MP, Triggering By-Election
UK Chancellor Faces Tighter Budget Headroom as Long-Term Borrowing Costs Rise
UK Government Weighs Thames Water Nationalisation as Financial Crisis Deepens
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces First Commons Questions Over Tax and Spending Plans
Eleven British Seafarers Receive Merchant Navy Medal
Which? Creates Fake 10 Downing Street Rental Listing to Expose Booking.com Vetting Weaknesses
BP Appoints New Chairman in Effort to Stabilise Leadership
Aberdeen Sells Hydrogen Bus Fleet at Heavy Loss After Green Transport Experiment
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record as Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Heat
Scotland Pledges to End Temporary Accommodation for Children and Build 111,000 Affordable Homes
DNO Agrees $396 Million Deal to Acquire Capricorn Energy
Uber and Wayve Launch UK’s First Supervised Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in London
Britain Expected to Avoid New US Tariffs Targeting European Union
Middle East Conflict Pushes UK Energy Costs Higher and Revives Inflation Concerns
UK Growth Forecast Cut to 1% Through 2027 as Youth Unemployment Is Projected to Rise
Andy Burnham Links Weak UK Growth to Brexit in First Full Commons Session as Prime Minister
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
UK Business Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Sale Recovers Just Six Pence for Every Pound Invested
Which? Exposes Booking.com Verification Failures With Fake 10 Downing Street Listing
British Business Bank Invests Up to £46 Million in Deep-Tech Startup Fund
Scottish Government Puts Violence Against Women at Center of Legislative Program
FCA Eases UK IPO Rules to Strengthen London’s Listing Market
UK Likely to Avoid Next US Tariff Measures as Washington Targets EU
Macron Visits UK for Bayeux Tapestry Exhibition and Border Security Talks
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts UK Growth Outlook to 1% for 2026 and 2027
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, Triggering By-Election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Unveils Devolution and Cost-of-Living Agenda
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 5.88%
Cleveland Police Receive £2 Million to Tackle Serious Crime in Middlesbrough
Number of Young People in England Without a Close Friend Reaches Record Level
Five Arrested After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Reported Second Parliamentary Standards Investigation
UK Retirement Funding Requirement Rises by £64,000 Compared With 2021
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April, Nationwide Says
FCA Chief Faces Allegations of Intimidating Consumer Group Over £9 Billion Car Loan Inquiry
Scottish Government Presses Ahead With Cap on Essential Food Prices
Burnham Government Moves to Overhaul Early Prison Release Scheme
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026, Met Office Says
UK Government Announces Major Reset of Diplomatic Policy Towards Israel
UK Pushes Back After Trump Reopens Falkland Islands Sovereignty Dispute
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
×