London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 28, 2026

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

The IFS has warned that the prime minister is putting the public finances on an "unsustainable path" with her plan to slash taxes while increasing borrowing to fund energy support packages.

Liz Truss is putting the public finances on a "unsustainable path" with her plans to slash taxes while capping energy bills, a leading economic think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that the combination of higher spending and tax cuts means government borrowing is expected to hit £100bn a year - more than double the official forecasts last March.

With debt potentially set on an "ever-rising path", the IFS said the prime minister's repeated claims that reducing tax rates would lead to sustained economic growth was "a gamble at best".

IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said: "Under the new prime minister's plans, the fiscal targets legislated in January would be missed and while we would get to enjoy lower taxes now, ever-increasing debt would eventually prove unsustainable."

The warning came just hours after Ms Truss told bosses of American multinationals that her tax cuts are "just the start" of a long-term plan to "simplify" Britain's taxes as she tries to lure investment.

As well as reversing the hike in national insurance contributions and scrapping a planned increase in corporation tax, it has been reported that the stamp duty could be cut when Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sets out his mini-budget on Friday.

Ms Truss told leaders of firms including Google, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase that the chancellor would be laying out "simplification" measures that would "get more businesses going in the UK" and also "encourage more people to go into work".

"While this is just the start, our long-term plan is to simplify Britain's taxes and to make us a better place to invest and be unashamedly pro-business," the prime minister said, according to a transcript provided by Number 10.

The chancellor is also due to lay out the expected costs of the energy price freeze - to be funded by government borrowing - in his fiscal statement on Friday.

The IFS said the final bill for the energy price cap was "highly uncertain" but could be £100bn over the next two years.

It was also announced today that wholesale energy costs for businesses will be slashed by up to half their expected price through the winter months - in a move expected to cost tens of billions of pounds.

Meanwhile, the reduction in revenue from the changes to national insurance and corporation tax will cost the exchequer around £30bn a year.

At the same time, rising inflation is pushing up spending on debt interest as well as state pensions and most working age benefits, while Ms Truss has also pledged to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.

As a result, the IFS said that even after the energy price guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, borrowing would be running at around £100bn a year - more than £60bn higher than was forecast in March.

At around 3.5% of national income, that would leave borrowing nearly double the 1.9% it averaged in the 60 years to the global crash in 2008.

Almost half this increase would be due to the tax cuts - while if they do not go ahead the current budget would be forecast to remain in balance, the IFS said.

Ms Truss has faced criticism that her tax cuts will disproportionately benefit the rich - but she told Sky News she is willing to be 'unpopular' in order to get the economy growing again.

However, the IFS said she "should not underestimate the scale of the challenge".

The think tank said: "There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Bill Clinton Denies Knowing Woman in Hot Tub Photo During Closed-Door Epstein Deposition
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton Testifies on Ties to Jeffrey Epstein Before Congressional Oversight Committee
Dyson Reaches Settlement in Landmark UK Forced Labour Case
Barclays and Jefferies Shares Fall After UK Mortgage Lender Collapse Rekindles Credit Market Concerns
Play Exploring Donald Trump’s Rise to Power by ‘Lehman Trilogy’ Author to Premiere in the UK
Man Arrested After Churchill Statue Defaced in Central London
Keir Starmer Faces Political Setback as Labour Finishes Third in High-Profile By-Election
UK Assisted Dying Bill Set to Fall Short in Parliament as Regional Initiatives Gain Ground
UK Defence Ministry Clarifies Position After Reports of Imminent Helicopter Contract
Independent Left-Wing Plumber Secures Shock Victory as Greens Surge in UK By-Election
Reform UK Refers Alleged ‘Family Voting’ Incidents in By-Election to Police
United Kingdom Temporarily Withdraws Embassy Staff from Iran Amid Heightened Regional Tensions
UK Government Reaches Framework Agreement on Release of Mandelson Vetting Files
UK Police Contracts With Israeli Surveillance Firms Spark Debate Over Ethics and Oversight
United Airlines Passenger Hears Cockpit Conversations After Accessing In-Flight Audio Channel
Spain to Conduct Border Checks on Gibraltar Arrivals Under New Post-Brexit Framework
Engie Shares Jump After $14 Billion Agreement to Acquire UK Power Grid Assets
BNP Paribas Overtakes Goldman Sachs in UK Investment Banking League Tables
Geothermal Project to Power Ten Thousand Homes Marks UK Renewable Energy Milestone
UK Visa Grants Drop Nineteen Percent in 2025 as Migration Controls Tighten
Barclays and Jefferies Among Banks Exposed to Collapse of UK Mortgage Lender MFS
UK Asylum Applications Edge Down in 2025 Despite Rise in Small Boat Crossings
Jefferies Reports Significant Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender MFS
FTSE 100 Reaches Fresh Record Highs as Major Share Buybacks and Earnings Lift London Stocks
So, what's happened is, I think, government policy, not just under Labour, but under the Conservatives as well, has driven a lot of small landlords out of business.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
From fears of AI-fuelled unemployment to Big Tech's record investment, this is AI Weekly.
Apple just dropped iOS 26.4.
US Lawmakers Seek Briefing from UK Over Reported Encryption Order Directed at Apple
UK Business Secretary Calls on EU to Remove Trade Barriers Hindering Growth
Legal Pathways for Removing Prince Andrew from Britain’s Line of Succession Examined
PM Netanyahu welcome India PM Narendra Modi to Israel
Shadow Diplomacy: How Harry and Meghan’s Jordan Trip Undermines the Monarchy
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, comments on immigration in the UK.
Bill Gates, the UN and the WEF are attempting to construct "a giant digital gulag for all of humanity" via digital ID, CBDCs and vaccine passport infrastructure.
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Downing Street’s Veteran Deception Scandal
UK HealthCare Expands ‘Food as Health’ Initiative Statewide to Tackle Chronic Illness in Kentucky
Leonardo Chief Says UK Set to Decide on New Medium Helicopter Programme
UK Slows Chagos Islands Agreement After Concerns Raised in Washington
European and UK Stock Markets Reach Fresh Highs as Banks and Miners Lead Rally
UK Government Insists Chagos Islands Negotiations Continue After Minister’s ‘Pause’ Remark
No Confirmed Deal for Engie to Acquire UK Power Networks Amid Market Speculation
UK Reaffirms Updated Entry Requirements for Travellers as of February 25, 2026
General Atlantic to sell equity stake in ByteDance, valuing the company at $550 billion
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Secures Pledge from China for Greater Imports of Quality Goods
Lord Mandelson Condemns Arrest as Driven by ‘Baseless Suggestion’ He Would Flee Abroad
Former UK Ambassador Released on Bail Following Arrest in Epstein-Linked Investigation
×