London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Apr 06, 2026

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

The IFS has warned that the prime minister is putting the public finances on an "unsustainable path" with her plan to slash taxes while increasing borrowing to fund energy support packages.

Liz Truss is putting the public finances on a "unsustainable path" with her plans to slash taxes while capping energy bills, a leading economic think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that the combination of higher spending and tax cuts means government borrowing is expected to hit £100bn a year - more than double the official forecasts last March.

With debt potentially set on an "ever-rising path", the IFS said the prime minister's repeated claims that reducing tax rates would lead to sustained economic growth was "a gamble at best".

IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said: "Under the new prime minister's plans, the fiscal targets legislated in January would be missed and while we would get to enjoy lower taxes now, ever-increasing debt would eventually prove unsustainable."

The warning came just hours after Ms Truss told bosses of American multinationals that her tax cuts are "just the start" of a long-term plan to "simplify" Britain's taxes as she tries to lure investment.

As well as reversing the hike in national insurance contributions and scrapping a planned increase in corporation tax, it has been reported that the stamp duty could be cut when Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sets out his mini-budget on Friday.

Ms Truss told leaders of firms including Google, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase that the chancellor would be laying out "simplification" measures that would "get more businesses going in the UK" and also "encourage more people to go into work".

"While this is just the start, our long-term plan is to simplify Britain's taxes and to make us a better place to invest and be unashamedly pro-business," the prime minister said, according to a transcript provided by Number 10.

The chancellor is also due to lay out the expected costs of the energy price freeze - to be funded by government borrowing - in his fiscal statement on Friday.

The IFS said the final bill for the energy price cap was "highly uncertain" but could be £100bn over the next two years.

It was also announced today that wholesale energy costs for businesses will be slashed by up to half their expected price through the winter months - in a move expected to cost tens of billions of pounds.

Meanwhile, the reduction in revenue from the changes to national insurance and corporation tax will cost the exchequer around £30bn a year.

At the same time, rising inflation is pushing up spending on debt interest as well as state pensions and most working age benefits, while Ms Truss has also pledged to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.

As a result, the IFS said that even after the energy price guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, borrowing would be running at around £100bn a year - more than £60bn higher than was forecast in March.

At around 3.5% of national income, that would leave borrowing nearly double the 1.9% it averaged in the 60 years to the global crash in 2008.

Almost half this increase would be due to the tax cuts - while if they do not go ahead the current budget would be forecast to remain in balance, the IFS said.

Ms Truss has faced criticism that her tax cuts will disproportionately benefit the rich - but she told Sky News she is willing to be 'unpopular' in order to get the economy growing again.

However, the IFS said she "should not underestimate the scale of the challenge".

The think tank said: "There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
Seven Arrested Near RAF Base as UK Authorities Respond to Protest Activity
Economic Pressures Mount as Analysts Warn UK Growth Is Being Constrained by Policy Burdens
UK Green Party’s Push for Church-State Separation Sparks Debate Over National Identity
Strategic Island Emerges as Growing Challenge for United States and United Kingdom Defense Planning
Pepsi Pulls Sponsorship from UK Festival Following Backlash Linked to Kanye West
Signs Emerge of Declining Enthusiasm for Social Media in the United Kingdom
Security Alert Raised Ahead of Meghan Markle’s Planned Visit to Australia
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
Woman Linked to UK’s First All-Female Terror Plot Faces Deportation
Downed US Aircraft Over Iran Linked to Operations from UK Airfield
Two Men and Teen Detained in UK Following Attack on Jewish Charity Ambulance
UK Police Launch Inquiry After Firearms Left Unattended Outside Mayor’s Residence
Giuffre Family Calls on King Charles to Meet Epstein Survivors During US Visit
Amber Wind Warning Issued as Storm Dave Approaches Parts of the United Kingdom
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Australia Visit Set to Draw Heightened Global Attention
UK Considers Entry Fees for Overseas Visitors at Major Museums Ahead of 2026 Travel Season
UK Prime Minister and Kuwait Crown Prince Coordinate Security Response After Regional Escalation
Calls Grow to Expand Fully Paid Maternity Leave for UK Teachers Amid Workforce Pressures
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access to US Market in Landmark Pharmaceuticals Agreement
Trump Projects Strength in Critique of UK Leadership and Naval Readiness
UK FinTech Setback as VibePay and Smartlayer Cease Operations Amid Funding Pressures
UK Leads Global Coalition of Over Forty Nations to Address Strait of Hormuz Crisis
UK Firms Urged to Accelerate Preparation as New Sustainability Reporting Rules Take Shape
UK Moves Rapid Sentry Air Defence System to Kuwait After Drone Strike Escalation
Transatlantic Relations Tested as UK Seeks Balance While Trump Reshapes Strategic Approach
Trump’s Strategic Pressure on UK Seen as Push for Stronger Alignment and Fairer Terms
UK Focuses on Trade Finance to Secure Critical Materials for Defence and Energy Sectors
Majority of UK Businesses Hit by Middle East Conflict While Confidence Holds Firm
UK Royal Navy Faces Renewed Scrutiny as Debate Intensifies Over Capability and Readiness
Reform UK Faces Mounting Distractions as Policy Agenda Struggles to Gain Traction
Investigation Launched Into Northern Cyprus IVF Clinics After UK Families Receive Incorrect Sperm
International Meeting Issues Unified Call to Safeguard Navigation Through Strait of Hormuz
Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Concerns Over UK Food and Medicine Supply Chains
UK Leads Coalition of Over Forty Nations Urging Iran to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access for Medicines in Landmark US Pharma Trade Agreement
King Charles III Invited to Address Joint Session of U.S. Congress in Rare Diplomatic Honor
Debate Grows Over Whether Expanded North Sea Drilling Can Reduce UK Energy Bills
UK Faces Heightened Risk of Jet Fuel Shortages, Airline Chief Warns
UK Ends Police Investigations into Lawful Social Media Posts After Review Finds Overreach
Abramovich Moves to Establish Charity for Frozen Chelsea Sale Proceeds Amid UK Dispute
Starmer Reaffirms NATO Commitment While Responding to Trump’s Strategic Critique
UK Aid Reductions Raise Fears of Severe Human Impact Across Parts of Africa
UK Signals Renewed Push for EU Cooperation as Iran Conflict Reshapes Security Landscape
×