London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

Liz Truss's plan for tax cuts to boost economy 'a gamble at best', says leading think tank

The IFS has warned that the prime minister is putting the public finances on an "unsustainable path" with her plan to slash taxes while increasing borrowing to fund energy support packages.

Liz Truss is putting the public finances on a "unsustainable path" with her plans to slash taxes while capping energy bills, a leading economic think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that the combination of higher spending and tax cuts means government borrowing is expected to hit £100bn a year - more than double the official forecasts last March.

With debt potentially set on an "ever-rising path", the IFS said the prime minister's repeated claims that reducing tax rates would lead to sustained economic growth was "a gamble at best".

IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said: "Under the new prime minister's plans, the fiscal targets legislated in January would be missed and while we would get to enjoy lower taxes now, ever-increasing debt would eventually prove unsustainable."

The warning came just hours after Ms Truss told bosses of American multinationals that her tax cuts are "just the start" of a long-term plan to "simplify" Britain's taxes as she tries to lure investment.

As well as reversing the hike in national insurance contributions and scrapping a planned increase in corporation tax, it has been reported that the stamp duty could be cut when Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng sets out his mini-budget on Friday.

Ms Truss told leaders of firms including Google, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase that the chancellor would be laying out "simplification" measures that would "get more businesses going in the UK" and also "encourage more people to go into work".

"While this is just the start, our long-term plan is to simplify Britain's taxes and to make us a better place to invest and be unashamedly pro-business," the prime minister said, according to a transcript provided by Number 10.

The chancellor is also due to lay out the expected costs of the energy price freeze - to be funded by government borrowing - in his fiscal statement on Friday.

The IFS said the final bill for the energy price cap was "highly uncertain" but could be £100bn over the next two years.

It was also announced today that wholesale energy costs for businesses will be slashed by up to half their expected price through the winter months - in a move expected to cost tens of billions of pounds.

Meanwhile, the reduction in revenue from the changes to national insurance and corporation tax will cost the exchequer around £30bn a year.

At the same time, rising inflation is pushing up spending on debt interest as well as state pensions and most working age benefits, while Ms Truss has also pledged to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade.

As a result, the IFS said that even after the energy price guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, borrowing would be running at around £100bn a year - more than £60bn higher than was forecast in March.

At around 3.5% of national income, that would leave borrowing nearly double the 1.9% it averaged in the 60 years to the global crash in 2008.

Almost half this increase would be due to the tax cuts - while if they do not go ahead the current budget would be forecast to remain in balance, the IFS said.

Ms Truss has faced criticism that her tax cuts will disproportionately benefit the rich - but she told Sky News she is willing to be 'unpopular' in order to get the economy growing again.

However, the IFS said she "should not underestimate the scale of the challenge".

The think tank said: "There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Balances Security Commitments With Economic Growth Priorities
Retail and Hospitality Sectors Navigate Consumer Caution and Tax Changes
Key Trends to Watch
British Land Appoints Joanne McNamara as New Chief Executive Officer
UK Government Names New Life Peers Including Former Military and Civil Service Leaders
Institute of Directors Urges Government Action on Employment Costs and Skills Shortages
IMF Raises UK 2026 Growth Forecast to One Percent
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Sharply as Households Cut Discretionary Spending
UK Ten-Year Bond Yields Remain Above Five Percent as Government Faces Higher Debt Costs
UK Government Plans Earlier End to Low-Value Import Duty Exemption for Online Retail Parcels
Reform UK Leads Tight Westminster Voting Poll as Conservatives and Labour Remain Close
Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group Completes First Arctic and North Atlantic Mission Phase
Andy Burnham Government Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues by Twenty Percent
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Food and Fuel Prices Ease
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister Facing Growth Challenges and Fiscal Pressure
UK Government Reviews Long-Term Balance Between Cost Relief, Industry Support, and Public Investment Priorities
BBC Could Receive Permanent Royal Charter Under Government Proposal
Northern Ireland Proposes End to Severe Weather Exemptions for Electricity Compensation Rules
Andy Burnham Holds Talks With UK Devolved Leaders on Regional Cooperation and Devolution
House of Lords Launches Inquiry Into Risks Facing UK Democratic Institutions
ScottishPower Renewables Plans Major Rebuild of Whitelee Wind Farm With Fewer Larger Turbines
UK and Italy Leaders Discuss Global Combat Air Programme and Future European Cooperation
UK Government Announces Six Hundred Million Pound Aerospace Investment Package at Farnborough Airshow
European Union Approves UK Participation in Ninety Billion Euro Ukraine Support Loan Framework
Rolls-Royce Warns UK Government Over Jet Engine Funding Decision and Future Manufacturing Plans
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Fuel and Food Prices Ease
Andy Burnham Begins Premiership With Two Pound England Bus Fare Cap and Electricity Tax Cut Plan
YouGov Poll Shows Tight Competition Among UK Political Parties
Space Technology Investment Expands Through UK-US Cooperation at Farnborough Airshow
UK Opens Final India Young Professionals Scheme Ballot for Three Thousand Applicants
United Kingdom Approved for Ukraine Financial Support Initiative With EU Partners
UK and Ireland Leaders Discuss Security, Energy and Regional Cooperation
British Heart Foundation Identifies Ten UK Areas With Severe Shortages of Defibrillators
Former Southern Water Executives Charged Over Alleged Water Test Manipulation Scheme
IMF Warns UK Economic Growth Will Slow to One Percent in 2026
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Food and Energy Costs Ease
United Kingdom Joins European Union Loan Mechanism to Support Ukraine’s Defense Needs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Introduces Two-Pound Bus Fare Cap and Energy Tax Relief Measures Across England
Northern Ireland Secures Additional Infrastructure Funding From UK Treasury
Wales Approves Port Investment Plans to Support Green Energy Supply Chains
UK Financial Regulator Simplifies Stock Market Rules to Attract More Listings
UK Reports Decline in Small Boat Crossings Across the English Channel
UK Government Creates Emergency Support Fund for Financially Pressured Universities
Scottish Government Launches Economic Strategy Focused on Innovation and Renewable Industries
UK Expands Sustainable Farming Incentives to Support Environmental Measures
UK Government Introduces New Neighbourhood Policing Standards Across England and Wales
UK Competition Regulator Opens Review of Artificial Intelligence Foundation Models
UK Deepens Indo-Pacific Security Cooperation After Talks With Singapore and Japan
UK Announces Rail Modernisation Plan for Northern England With New Infrastructure Funding
UK Government Updates Housing Planning Rules to Accelerate Residential Construction
×