UK Opinion Polls: Labour Leads Ahead of 2024 General Election
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has set the next UK general election for 4 July 2024. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has consistently led in the polls since early 2022. The Guardian tracks polling averages from major British pollsters, with Labour currently ahead and the Scottish National Party expected to perform strongly in Scotland.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced the next UK general election will be held on 4 July 2024.
With 14 years of Conservative rule coming to an end, Keir Starmer's Labour Party has led the polls since early 2022.
The Guardian is providing updates on polling averages from major British polling companies until election day.
The data excludes the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has 2-4% of the national vote but is expected to win many seats in Scotland.
In the first-past-the-post system, seat projections matter more than vote shares.
Pollster Electoral Calculus predicts parliamentary seats using a multilevel regression model that factors in demographics and regional data.
However, the UK's electoral system introduces variability in seat counts, making precise predictions challenging.
Polls are less reliable in closer races and for parties with localized support like the Liberal Democrats or in regions like Scotland.
Guardian's data excludes Northern Ireland and averages party support over 10-day periods, sourced only from British Polling Council members.
Seat projections are updated monthly from Electoral Calculus based on the latest demographic and polling data.
Illustrations and additional research have been contributed by Sam Kerr, Gabriel Smith, Emma Russell, and Lily Smith.
With 14 years of Conservative rule coming to an end, Keir Starmer's Labour Party has led the polls since early 2022.
The Guardian is providing updates on polling averages from major British polling companies until election day.
The data excludes the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has 2-4% of the national vote but is expected to win many seats in Scotland.
In the first-past-the-post system, seat projections matter more than vote shares.
Pollster Electoral Calculus predicts parliamentary seats using a multilevel regression model that factors in demographics and regional data.
However, the UK's electoral system introduces variability in seat counts, making precise predictions challenging.
Polls are less reliable in closer races and for parties with localized support like the Liberal Democrats or in regions like Scotland.
Guardian's data excludes Northern Ireland and averages party support over 10-day periods, sourced only from British Polling Council members.
Seat projections are updated monthly from Electoral Calculus based on the latest demographic and polling data.
Illustrations and additional research have been contributed by Sam Kerr, Gabriel Smith, Emma Russell, and Lily Smith.
