London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 04, 2025

UK living standards squeeze will intensify as real pay plunges

UK living standards squeeze will intensify as real pay plunges

Analysis: Rising inflation likely to lead to more strikes and falling spending unless government acts

Forget talk of a return to the inflationary spirals of the 1970s. The real story of Britain’s labour market is of an intensifying squeeze on living standards as the gap between pay and the cost of living widens.

Real regular pay – wages adjusted for prices once bonus payments have been stripped out – were 2.8% lower in the three months to May than in the same period of 2021. Not only was that the sixth monthly decline in a row, it was the biggest drop since modern records began in 2001.

What’s more, there is worse to come as inflation heads higher over the coming months. Pay growth excluding bonuses picked up slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% according to the latest Office for National Statistics data but nowhere near fast enough to keep up with price increases. If the Bank of England is right and inflation peaks above 11% after energy bills rise again in the autumn, the pressure on household budgets will be enormous.


Including bonuses, the picture is a bit brighter. Here the fall in real pay is smaller – at 0.9% – but the benefits of bonuses have been skewed towards better-paid workers in the finance and business services sectors and construction. These groups enjoyed annual total pay growth of 8.2% and 8.1% respectively, enough to keep pace with price rises.

But not all workers can rely on bonuses to top up their pay packets. Real earnings are falling particularly rapidly in the public sector, where total pay was just 1.5% higher in the three months to May than it was a year earlier.

The ONS labour market figures show a decline in inactivity as people return to the workforce in search of jobs. This is not entirely surprising: job vacancies are at record levels and households need paid employment when they are struggling to pay the bills.

Two big conclusions can be drawn from the latest data. The first is that there will be trouble ahead unless the government responds to the falling living standards of teachers, nurses, civil servants and other groups of public sector workers. This will mean either people leaving the public sector or strikes, and probably both.

The second is that the economy is rapidly reaching crunch point. If average regular pay is rising by just over 4% and annual inflation is running well above 10%, something has to give. That something will be consumer spending, with the lowest-paid and most vulnerable workers suffering most.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK's Online Safety Law: A Front for Censorship
Nationwide Protests Erupt in Brazil Demanding Presidential Resignation
Parents Abandon Child at Barcelona Airport Over Passport Issue
Mystery Surrounds Death of Brazilian Woman with iPhones Glued to Her Body
Bus Driver Discovers Toddler Hidden in Suitcase in New Zealand
Switzerland Celebrates 734 Years of Independence Amid Global Changes
U.S. Opens Official Investigation into Former Trump Prosecutor Jack Smith
Leaked audio of Canada's new PM Mark Carney admitting the truth about the Net Zero agenda: "We're gonna make a lot of money off of this."
China Enforces Comprehensive Ban on Cryptocurrency Activities
Absolutely 100% Realistic EVO Series Doll by EXDOLL (Chinese Company) used mainly for carnal purposes
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab: "In this new world, we must accept... total transparency. You have to get used to it. You have to behave accordingly. But if you have nothing to hide, you shouldn't be afraid."
Meet Mufti Hamid Patel, head of Office for Standards in Education in Pakistan
George Soros tells the World Economic Forum: "President Trump is a con man and the ultimate narcissist, who wants the world to revolve around him."
Hamas are STARVING the hostages.
Decline in Tourism in Majorca Amidst Ongoing Anti-Tourism Protests
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
Poland Begins Excavation at Dziemiany After New Clue to World War II‑Era Nazi Treasure
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Threatens Canada with Tariffs Over Palestinian State Recognition
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Trump Sues Murdoch in “Heavyweight Bout”: Lawsuit Over Alleged Epstein Letter Sets Stage for Courtroom Showdown
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
Trump Administration Finalizes Broad Tariff Increases on Global Trade Partners
J.K. Rowling Limits Public Engagements Citing Safety Fears
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
×