London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025

UK growth stutters in February as cost-of-living squeeze looms

UK growth stutters in February as cost-of-living squeeze looms

Britain's economy slowed more sharply than expected in February, reflecting a hit to car production from component shortages, storm disruption and reduced health spending as households braced for a tighter cost-of-living squeeze.
Britain's economy slowed more sharply than expected in February, reflecting a hit to car production from component shortages, storm disruption and reduced health spending as households braced for a tighter cost-of-living squeeze.

Monthly gross domestic product growth was just 0.1% in February compared with 0.8% in January, the Office for National Statistics said on Monday, below the 0.3% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

"The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February ... increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in the coming months as the squeeze on household real incomes intensifies," Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said.

Britain's economy in February was 1.5% larger than it was two years earlier, just before the country was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ONS said.

GDP collapsed by more than 9% in 2020, its biggest annual fall since just after World War One, but rebounded sharply in 2021 and suffered only a modest hit from the Omicron variant of coronavirus in December.

However, economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for 2022 due to a surge in inflation caused by rising energy and commodity prices -- partly linked to the war in Ukraine -- as well as ongoing supply-chain difficulties since the pandemic.

Last month the government's Office for Budget Responsibility cut its forecast for growth in 2022 to 3.8% from 6.0% in its previous forecast in October, predicting that inflation would hit a 40-year high of 8.7% later this year.

The squeeze on households' disposable income from higher inflation and a payroll tax rise that took effect in April will be the biggest since records began in 1956/57, the OBR said.

Finance minister Rishi Sunak -- whose popularity has slumped after offering only limited support to help households in a fiscal statement last month -- said he welcomed the continued growth.

However, some analysts think the economy will shrink over the three months to June, reflecting reduced COVID-related health spending and an extra public holiday to mark Queen Elizabeth's Golden Jubilee, as well as reduced household disposable income.

"Given this weak near-term outlook for GDP growth, we continue to think that the (Bank of England) will stop increasing Bank Rate after raising it to 1.0% next month," Pantheon Macroeconomics's Samuel Tombs said.

Britain's dominant services sector drove monthly growth in February as the Omicron wave of coronavirus cases ebbed.

Services output, up 0.2%, was boosted by a surge in travel bookings as COVID-19 restrictions eased, although this was largely offset by a sharp fall in health spending after COVID-19 testing and vaccination halved from January's high level.

Factory output dropped by 0.4% reflecting continued falls in car production due to component shortages and declines in other areas, while milder-than-usual winter weather depressed demand for electricity, causing power generation to fall by 1.0%.

Storms and rising materials costs hurt construction, where output fell by 0.1% on the month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson proclaims, “For Ukraine, surrendering their land would be a nightmare.”
Microsoft Challenges £2.1 Billion UK Cloud Licensing Lawsuit at Competition Tribunal
Fake Doctor in Uttar Pradesh Accused of Killing Woman After Performing YouTube-Based Surgery
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
Traveling to USA? Homeland Security moving toward requiring foreign travelers to share social media history
UK Officials Push Back at Trump Saying European Leaders ‘Talk Too Much’ About Ukraine
UK Warns of Escalating Cyber Assault Linked to Putin’s State-Backed Operations
UK Consumer Spending Falters in November as Households Hold Back Ahead of Budget
UK Orders Fresh Review of Prince Harry’s Security Status After Formal Request
U.S. Authorises Nvidia to Sell H200 AI Chips to China Under Security Controls
Trump in Direct Assault: European Leaders Are Weak, Immigration a Disaster. Russia Is Strong and Big — and Will Win
"App recommendation" or disguised advertisement? ChatGPT Premium users are furious
"The Great Filtering": Australia Blocks Hundreds of Thousands of Minors From Social Networks
Mark Zuckerberg Pulls Back From Metaverse After $70 Billion Loss as Meta Shifts Priorities to AI
Nvidia CEO Says U.S. Data-Center Builds Take Years while China ‘Builds a Hospital in a Weekend’
Indian Airports in Turmoil as IndiGo Cancels Over a Thousand Flights, Stranding Thousands
Hollywood Industry on Edge as Netflix Secures Near-$60 Bln Loan for Warner Bros Takeover
Drugs and Assassinations: The Connection Between the Italian Mafia and Football Ultras
Hollywood megadeal: Netflix acquires Warner Bros. Discovery for 83 billion dollars
The Disregard for a Europe ‘in Danger of Erasure,’ the Shift Toward Russia: Trump’s Strategic Policy Document
Two and a Half Weeks After the Major Outage: A Cloudflare Malfunction Brings Down Multiple Sites
UK data-regulator demands urgent clarity on racial bias in police facial-recognition systems
Labour Uses Biscuits to Explain UK Debt — MPs Lean Into Social Media to Reach New Audiences
German President Lays Wreath at Coventry as UK-Germany Reaffirm Unity Against Russia’s Threat
×