London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026

UK growth stutters in February as cost-of-living squeeze looms

UK growth stutters in February as cost-of-living squeeze looms

Britain's economy slowed more sharply than expected in February, reflecting a hit to car production from component shortages, storm disruption and reduced health spending as households braced for a tighter cost-of-living squeeze.
Britain's economy slowed more sharply than expected in February, reflecting a hit to car production from component shortages, storm disruption and reduced health spending as households braced for a tighter cost-of-living squeeze.

Monthly gross domestic product growth was just 0.1% in February compared with 0.8% in January, the Office for National Statistics said on Monday, below the 0.3% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

"The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February ... increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in the coming months as the squeeze on household real incomes intensifies," Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said.

Britain's economy in February was 1.5% larger than it was two years earlier, just before the country was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ONS said.

GDP collapsed by more than 9% in 2020, its biggest annual fall since just after World War One, but rebounded sharply in 2021 and suffered only a modest hit from the Omicron variant of coronavirus in December.

However, economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for 2022 due to a surge in inflation caused by rising energy and commodity prices -- partly linked to the war in Ukraine -- as well as ongoing supply-chain difficulties since the pandemic.

Last month the government's Office for Budget Responsibility cut its forecast for growth in 2022 to 3.8% from 6.0% in its previous forecast in October, predicting that inflation would hit a 40-year high of 8.7% later this year.

The squeeze on households' disposable income from higher inflation and a payroll tax rise that took effect in April will be the biggest since records began in 1956/57, the OBR said.

Finance minister Rishi Sunak -- whose popularity has slumped after offering only limited support to help households in a fiscal statement last month -- said he welcomed the continued growth.

However, some analysts think the economy will shrink over the three months to June, reflecting reduced COVID-related health spending and an extra public holiday to mark Queen Elizabeth's Golden Jubilee, as well as reduced household disposable income.

"Given this weak near-term outlook for GDP growth, we continue to think that the (Bank of England) will stop increasing Bank Rate after raising it to 1.0% next month," Pantheon Macroeconomics's Samuel Tombs said.

Britain's dominant services sector drove monthly growth in February as the Omicron wave of coronavirus cases ebbed.

Services output, up 0.2%, was boosted by a surge in travel bookings as COVID-19 restrictions eased, although this was largely offset by a sharp fall in health spending after COVID-19 testing and vaccination halved from January's high level.

Factory output dropped by 0.4% reflecting continued falls in car production due to component shortages and declines in other areas, while milder-than-usual winter weather depressed demand for electricity, causing power generation to fall by 1.0%.

Storms and rising materials costs hurt construction, where output fell by 0.1% on the month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Andy Burnham Reaffirms UK Net-Zero Target With £30 Million Community Energy Fund
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low
UK Diesel Prices Approach £2 a Litre as Global Supply Shortages Intensify
Chiltern Railways Returns to Public Ownership as UK Rail Nationalisation Advances
British Museum Faces Questions Over Peter Thiel’s Private Bayeux Tapestry Viewing
Earl Spencer Memoir Excerpts Renew Public Debate Over Diana’s Death
Liberal Democrats Gather in Brighton for Autumn Conference
Mothercare Shares Plunge as Middle East Store Closures Threaten Long-Term Solvency
Kent Police Treat Folkestone Hotel Fire as Suspicious
Caribbean Governments Advance Reparations Campaign Seeking Engagement With Britain
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
UK Competition Regulator Opens Inquiry Into McCormick-Unilever Foods Deal
Public Inquiry Into Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys Mental Health Failings Set to Begin
Nigel Farage Looks to US Immigration Enforcement Model for UK Border Policy
Chiltern Railways Moves Into Public Ownership
Security Review Raises Concerns Over Sensitive UK Police Data Stored on Microsoft Cloud
Burnham Government Warns of Difficult Autumn Budget as Fiscal Headroom Narrows
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
Ed Sheeran Tour Faces Backlash After Macklemore Is Removed Over Pro-Palestinian Remarks
Vandalism of Traffic Cameras Intensifies Across Parts of England
Nearly 300 Evacuated as Fire Hits Grand Burstin Hotel in Folkestone
King Charles Warns AI Executives About Risks From Uncontrolled Technology
Church of England Apologises for Role in Historical Forced Adoption Practices
UK Debate Over Online Speech Intensifies After Arrest Figures Draw Scrutiny
Oxfordshire Village Holds Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Nigel Farage and Richard Tice Sue National Crime Agency Over Alleged Banking Data Leaks
Apple Introduces Stricter Age Checks for UK Accounts
BBC Cash Reserves Fall 66% to £125 Million as Broadcaster Restructures
McLaren Announces £500 Million UK Investment and Plans 1,000 Jobs
Green Party Wins Historic Gorton and Denton By-Election as Labour Falls to Third
Burnham Government Prepares October Budget Under Growing Fiscal Pressure
UK Energy Suppliers Pull Fixed-Price Deals as Wholesale Markets Turn More Volatile
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Middle East Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risks
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20 Million UK Tax Tribunal Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Losses on About £190 Million of Debt
Harrods Seeks to Recover Abuse Compensation Costs From Mohamed Al Fayed’s Estate
Ed Davey Targets Reform UK as Liberal Democrat Conference Opens
Great Britain Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in August
NHS England Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Incurable Breast Cancer
Proposals to Limit NHS ADHD Diagnoses Draw Criticism From Patient Groups
Resolution Foundation Warns of Housing Cost Crunch for Low-Income UK Families
BBC Cash Reserves Fall to Decade Low as Annual Deficit Reaches £121 Million
Millisecond Software Error Triggered Major UK Air Traffic Control Disruption
Twenty Women Underwent Unnecessary Mastectomies During NHS Cancer Care
Sensitive UK Police Data Found Vulnerable to Access by Foreign Actors
British Steel Faces Renewed Pressure for a Long-Term Financial Plan
MPs Urge Government to End Thames Water Restructuring Talks With U.S. Hedge Funds
Andy Burnham Warns of Difficult UK Budget Choices as Inflation Returns to 3.1%
×