London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Dec 20, 2025

Sticky inflation confirms there is more for the European Central Bank to do

Sticky inflation confirms there is more for the European Central Bank to do

Sky's Ian King casts his eye over the latest inflation figures coming out of the euro area, which show a mixed picture for the policymakers in Frankfurt to grapple.

Last week's surprise rise in the headline rate of inflation in the UK brought a reminder, if one were needed, of how hard it is, once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, to put it back in.

Thursday brought a further reminder with news that consumer prices in Germany continued to rise this month at a faster pace than expected.

The annual rate of consumer price inflation in the eurozone's biggest economy in March came in at 7.4% when measured by Germany's national standards. That was down from the rate of 8.7% in both January and February but ahead of the 7.2% figure the market had been expecting.

An alternative measure, which is harmonised to EU standards, came in at 7.8%, again down from 8.7% in February, but again ahead of the 7.5% that the market had expected.

As in the UK, food prices are exerting most upward pressure on inflation in Germany. They rose by 22.3% on a year-on-year basis - undoing much of the good done by a slowdown, to 3.5%, in the annual rate at which energy prices are rising.

News of the figures sent the yield (which moves in the opposite direction to the price) of German government bonds higher.

That move reflected the fact that the higher-than-expected figures will maintain pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue raising interest rates.

The ECB raised its main policy rate two weeks ago from 2.5% to 3%.

Yet the difficulty of the task faced by the ECB - which has to set an interest rates for a 20-country bloc that goes from Ireland and Portugal in the west to Cyprus in the east and from Finland in the north to Malta in the south - was underlined by figures published separately in Spain.

Spain's annual rate of inflation fell from 6% in February to just 3.3% in March - significantly lower than the 3.8% that economists had expected.

On the harmonised basis used by the EU, Spanish inflation fell from 6% in February to 3.1% in March, again significantly below the 4% that economists had expected.

Food prices climbed by 16% year-on-year. The fact that Spanish food prices grew at a lower rate than in Germany is partly explained by Madrid's decision, just after Christmas, to cut the rate of VAT on essential foods such as bread, cheese, fruit, milk and vegetables from 4% to zero and to cut the VAT rate from 10% to 5% on pasta and cooking oils.

Bad weather in Spain during January helped push up food prices because of crop damage


What will probably jog the ECB to carry on raising interest rates, though, is the fact that, even with this big decline in Spain, so-called 'core' inflation - the measure than strips out volatile elements such as energy, food, drink, alcohol and tobacco - remains very sticky. In Spain, it fell very modestly, easing from 7.6% to 7.5%.

This is probably the more important measure, in the eyes of the ECB, because it is an indication of how domestically-generated inflation is becoming entrenched rather than inflation in energy, food and drink, much of which can be explained by external factors, chiefly Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

On that basis, further interest rate rises from the ECB in coming months remains the way to bet.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson proclaims, “For Ukraine, surrendering their land would be a nightmare.”
Microsoft Challenges £2.1 Billion UK Cloud Licensing Lawsuit at Competition Tribunal
Fake Doctor in Uttar Pradesh Accused of Killing Woman After Performing YouTube-Based Surgery
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
Traveling to USA? Homeland Security moving toward requiring foreign travelers to share social media history
UK Officials Push Back at Trump Saying European Leaders ‘Talk Too Much’ About Ukraine
UK Warns of Escalating Cyber Assault Linked to Putin’s State-Backed Operations
UK Consumer Spending Falters in November as Households Hold Back Ahead of Budget
UK Orders Fresh Review of Prince Harry’s Security Status After Formal Request
U.S. Authorises Nvidia to Sell H200 AI Chips to China Under Security Controls
Trump in Direct Assault: European Leaders Are Weak, Immigration a Disaster. Russia Is Strong and Big — and Will Win
"App recommendation" or disguised advertisement? ChatGPT Premium users are furious
"The Great Filtering": Australia Blocks Hundreds of Thousands of Minors From Social Networks
Mark Zuckerberg Pulls Back From Metaverse After $70 Billion Loss as Meta Shifts Priorities to AI
Nvidia CEO Says U.S. Data-Center Builds Take Years while China ‘Builds a Hospital in a Weekend’
Indian Airports in Turmoil as IndiGo Cancels Over a Thousand Flights, Stranding Thousands
Hollywood Industry on Edge as Netflix Secures Near-$60 Bln Loan for Warner Bros Takeover
Drugs and Assassinations: The Connection Between the Italian Mafia and Football Ultras
Hollywood megadeal: Netflix acquires Warner Bros. Discovery for 83 billion dollars
×