London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025

Second wave in London is likely ‘in almost all cases’, simulation finds

Scientists modelling the coronavirus outbreak using detailed simulations of London boroughs say a second wave of cases is likely in ‘almost all cases’.
The simulation software used predicts how local measures such as closing certain shops or quarantining residents in particular buildings affects the virus’ spread.

It has been released to the public as an open-source tool and has already been used for local authority decisions in north London.

The Flu And Coronavirus Simulator (FACS) team said they were ‘pessimistic’ over the chances of a second wave after looking at full simulations for a number of areas including Brent, Ealing, Hillingdon and Harrow.

More basic models have been released for areas including Westminster, Chelsea, Fulham and Kensington.

The researchers used data collected from an NHS trust to create an 80-day forecast covering a ‘very wide range of local intervention types’ from shutting pubs to restricting individual households.

They compared a number of scenarios in each area, including zero restrictions, a borough-wide lockdown, and a ‘dynamic’ lockdown using a mix of changing restrictions.

Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in computer simulation at Brunel University and part of the FACS team, said: ‘The models definitely see a second wave in almost all cases, although it looks much less deep than the first wave, but it could be more prolonged.’

‘The results between boroughs has so far varied a lot, so we’re trying to understand better why that is.’

The modelling used findings from current scientific studies but can be updated in line with new research by whoever uses the code, Dr Groen added.

He said: ‘So, for example, it’s not totally clear at the moment how many people are wearing masks.

‘We can put in a number, say, 20%, then run the simulation – but if people want to put in a different number, they can just do more runs and vary the number.’

Dr Imran Mahmood, another Brunel researcher on the FACS team, said: ‘The local authority had been considering what changes they needed to make regarding bed capacity in the coming years, and whether they should redirect patients to other hospitals, and these models helped support those decisions.

‘We hope that others can take the codes and model their local areas – so councils could do that or even local volunteers, to get an idea of how COVID-19 is spreading in their local community.

‘It probably can’t be set up by a complete layman, but people familiar with building simulations could do it.’

The FACS project is a collaboration between Brunel’s computer science department and the HiDALGO project, an EU-funded consortium of data analysis firms.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
×