Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley is to propose replacing the 43 police forces in England and Wales with eight to 10 regional forces, arguing that removing duplicated functions could free thousands of roles for frontline services.

His proposed structure would combine the regional forces with hundreds of local policing commands and a new National Police Service. The case for consolidation rests on a mismatch: criminals operate across borders, while police forces retain boundaries and structures designed for a different age.

In a forthcoming speech, Sir Mark will point to organised crime groups, fraud networks, online child abuse, cyber criminals and hostile states as threats that cross regional, national and international boundaries. He will argue that criminals have adapted to technological advances while policing’s fundamental organisation has largely stood still.

“I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat,” he will say.

Sir Mark will argue that functions repeated across 43 forces consume resources that could instead support frontline policing. Drawing a comparison with the NHS, he will say that individual hospital services do not each provide every specialist capability, and that public safety should follow the same principle.

The speech will also highlight a fall in police funding as a share of GDP in England and Wales, from around 0.9% to around 0.7% since 2010. That measure describes funding relative to the economy, rather than establishing a cash reduction.

He is expected to warn that workforce goodwill is compensating for an overstretched system, with consequences including fewer visible officers, stretched services and victims waiting too long for justice.

Four other chief constables will join a panel discussion after the speech. Sir Mark’s proposals remain a case for reform, rather than an agreed restructuring: the promised frontline benefit would depend on removing duplication and successfully redirecting the resources released.