Andy Burnham has argued that reducing welfare costs will require upfront spending on education and support for young people, proposing a guaranteed 45-day work placement for those aged 16 to 18 who want one.

His case draws a distinction between spending more on benefits and investing in services intended to reduce the need for them. Asked whether the welfare bill would have to rise before falling, Burnham said: “It wouldn’t be the welfare bill. It would be the investment in the support that teenagers need and the guarantees that I want to put in place for them.”

Work placements of that length are currently linked to T-levels. Burnham said he had seen the difference they made and wanted quality placements available more widely, rather than restricted to young people taking those qualifications.

The funding question is immediate. During a visit to an employer in Wiltshire on Friday, he was asked how additional careers support could be reconciled with pressure on departmental budgets as the Government seeks to increase defence spending.

The Prime Minister is awaiting the Milburn review, which will recommend ways to help young people who are not in education, employment or training, known as Neets, into work and reduce the number claiming benefits. Ministers are expected to set out their response in the coming weeks, alongside their response to the Timms review of disability benefits reform.

The scale and composition of welfare spending put the youth employment proposals in perspective. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that the bill will reach £431 billion in 2031–32, with growth largely driven by health-related and pensioner benefits. More than half of welfare spending goes to pensioners, including through the state pension.

Helping teenagers towards employment could address one part of that challenge. It would not, by itself, tackle the main pressures identified in the forecast. The decisions still to come concern how much support to fund now, where that money will come from and when any resulting savings might follow.