London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 02, 2025

Prepare for a low-key Christmas, England Covid experts warn

Prepare for a low-key Christmas, England Covid experts warn

People should prepare for a low-key Christmas, or even one spent outdoors, public health experts have said, because the second lockdown might not significantly suppress the rate of coronavirus infections.
Officials and ministers are still awaiting key data on the effectiveness of the four-week restrictions imposed across England, meaning a promised update to parliament on the next steps is unlikely to happen before late next week.

Scientists said that while they accepted the economic need for shops and hospitality businesses to reopen before the crucial festive season, the advent of seemingly effective vaccines meant people could consider postponing big family get-togethers.

“We really have to be careful that we don’t just focus on what is going to happen in six weeks’ time,” said Prof Catherine Noakes, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), who was speaking to the Guardian in a personal capacity.

“I know it is human nature to do that, but we will be better off planning for the longer duration and thinking of, actually, can we have a more low-key Christmas and new year this year and perhaps plan to do the bigger family celebrations in the summer when the risks are likely to be far lower for all sorts of reasons,” said Noakes, an expert in the transport of airborne pathogens from the University of Leeds.

Prof Gabriel Scally, a visiting professor of public health of the University of Bristol and a member of the Independent Sage group of experts, said he had little hope that the latest lockdown will quash the spread of the virus, given the spring lockdown had little effect in reducing infection levels in some parts of England.

“We know that the [last] and even more severe lockdown did not get the virus under control, so how can we expect that this will bring the virus under control given that some things have not changed?” he argued.

“How can we be in a good place by Christmas? I think it is impossible,” Scally said, adding that the aim should be for “a new, Covid-safe Christmas”, involving well-ventilated homes and lots of outdoor time.

“Plant your Christmas tree in the garden this year, and open your presents underneath the tree outside with family, or something like that,” he said.

Downing’s Street stated intention is that when the four-week, England-wide lockdown ends, the country will return to regionally tiered levels of restrictions. While no details have been given, the types of restrictions are unlikely to be identical to those that were in place before, and could be more robust.

Speaking at Monday’s Downing Street Covid press conference, Dr Susan Hopkins, an epidemiologist, said the previous lowest level, tier 1, had “little effect”, while the impact of tier 2 varied in different places.

Downing Street played this down on Tuesday, with Boris Johnson’s spokesman saying that even in tier 1 areas, the R, or reproduction, number of coronavirus was well below what it would be without interventions, “so the measures were having an impact”.

One government source said that while anecdotal evidence was that infection and hospitalisation rates were “moving in the right direction”, ministers were awaiting data from the midway point of the lockdown, which falls on Thursday.

A big decision for Johnson will be whether any strengthening of tiers could mean pubs, cafes or restaurants must remain closed, which could have a catastrophic economic before Christmas.

“That’s the challenge,” the source said. “We know that the big lever to pull to reduce R tends to be hospitality. Merseyside is a good example – when they moved into tier 3, it did have a noticeable impact. But that really isn’t palatable for vast swathes of the country, in economic terms.”

Christmas, they said, was being treated as a separate issue in terms of restrictions: “You’ve got to factor human behaviour into this. You can’t just say: ‘It’s winter, bringing elderly people indoors with high Covid prevalence and during flu season isn’t a good idea.’ You’ve got to acknowledge that it is Christmas.”

The latest Office for National Statistics figures showed almost 2,000 Covid deaths had occurred in England and Wales in the week to 6 November.

The total number of excess deaths – those occurring over and above the five-year average, and seen as an indicator of coronavirus fatalities – has reached 70,000, a figure that slowed considerably over the summer but is now accelerating.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
Nvidia Pledges Up to $100 Billion Investment in OpenAI to Power Massive AI Data Center Build-Out
U.S. Signals ‘Large and Forceful’ Support for Argentina Amid Market Turmoil
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
Vietnam Faces Up to $25 Billion Export Loss as U.S. Tariffs Bite
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Indonesia Court Upholds Military Law Amid Concerns Over Expanded Civilian Role
Larry Ellison, Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch Join Trump-Backed Bid to Take Over TikTok
Trump and Musk Reunite Publicly for First Time Since Fallout at Kirk Memorial
Vietnam Closes 86 Million Untouched Bank Accounts Over Biometric ID Rules
×