London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Number of people in UK with long-term sickness rose to record 2.5m in July

Number of people in UK with long-term sickness rose to record 2.5m in July

Almost 400,000 have exited jobs market with long-term health problems since early 2020, ONS says

The number of workers experiencing long-term sickness reached a record high of 2.5 million in July, even as unemployment dropped to levels last seen in 1974.

Official figures giving an overview of the jobs market showed more than 150,000 workers joined the list of people with persistent ill-health in just two months to the end of July.

Almost 400,000 have exited the jobs market owing to long-term health problems since early 2020, as Covid-19 took its toll and other illnesses went untreated, but they are not classed as unemployed.

An exodus by workers aged between 50 and 64 accounted for the largest losses since March 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which said the pandemic ended a 20-year run of improvements in the health of people eligible for work.

Analysts said a drop in unemployment to from 3.8% to 3.6% – its lowest level since 1974 – could partly be explained by a rise in the number of workers classified as long-term sick.

James Smith, an economist at ING, said people looking for work had registered as inactive rather than unemployed and given ill-health as their reason for stepping back.

“It’s hard to escape the conclusion that this is linked to the pressures in the NHS,” he said.

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey


A rise in the number of students was another factor pushing the number of those classed as economically inactive – measuring the share of the population who are not in work and not looking for work – up by 194,000 during the quarter to 9 million.

“We are starting to see signs of a labour market losing its momentum,” said Jack Kennedy, a UK economist at the global job site Indeed.

The Bank of England is worried tightness in the labour market could spark a round of inflation-linked pay claims, adding to the recent increase in price pressures.

The central bank raised interest rates the most since 1995 last month, and is expected to increase them again on 22 September.

Sterling jumped against the US dollar after Tuesday’s data, and investors were pricing in an 83% chance of a three-quarters of a percentage-point Bank rate rise next week, which would be its biggest since 1989, excluding an attempt to shore up the pound in 1992 that was quickly reversed.

The ONS said the employment rate also fell as the number of part-time staff declined at a faster rate than full-timers were added to the figures.

The cost of living crisis continued to affect millions of households throughout the summer after pay growth failed to keep pace with rising prices in July despite a rise in average wages.

Average pay including bonuses increased by 5.5% in the three months to July, while regular pay (excluding bonuses) climbed by 5.2%, up from 4.7% in June.

Workers continued to be hardest hit in the public sector, where regular pay grew by 2%, compared with 6% in the private sector. Annual inflation was 10.1% in July, the highest level in 40 years.

According to the ONS, wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.6% including bonuses and by 2.8% excluding bonuses.

Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the business surveys chimed with the official data to show that “labour demand is barely rising”.

He said: “Alas, the workforce contracted by 36,000 in the three months to July, led by a further sharp rise in long-term sickness among working-age adults.”

Tombs added that unemployment would rise as the economic situation worsened over the coming months and unemployment would increase to about 4% by the end of the year and 4.5% by mid-2023.

Jane Gratton, the head of people policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the mismatch between the high level of vacancies and the number of people looking for work was harming thousands of businesses.

“With firms doing their best to keep afloat during a period of spiralling costs, they are also facing an extremely tight labour market which is further impacting their ability to invest and grow,” she added.

“Despite a second month of a decrease in job vacancies, the overall number of vacancies in the labour market remains high. With more than 1.2 million unfilled jobs across the country, labour shortages have reached crisis levels for businesses across many sectors and regions.

“During a period of increasing inflation, and a stagnant economy, we cannot afford to let recruitment problems further dampen growth.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
William and Kate Are Moving House – and the New Neighbors Were Evicted
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
×