London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jul 26, 2026

IMF warns Bank of England not to be too slow to raise interest rates

IMF warns Bank of England not to be too slow to raise interest rates

The International Monetary Fund urged the Bank of England on Tuesday to avoid an "inaction bias" when it comes to raising interest rates as it forecast British inflation would hit a 30-year high of around 5.5% next year.

The BoE has said rates will need to rise to ensure that consumer price inflation - currently 4.2% - returns to its 2% target in the next couple of years.

But the central bank held off from a widely expected rate rise last month due to concern about the impact of the end of the government's job furlough programme, and is expected to do so again on Thursday due to the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

The IMF, in an annual report on Britain's economy, said the BoE faced difficult trade-offs but should not delay too long.

"It would be important to avoid inaction bias, in view of costs associated with containing second-round impacts. Careful communication would be needed to lay the groundwork with markets for potentially more frequent policy moves," it added.

A global inflation surge due to higher energy prices and supply-chain bottlenecks created by the COVID-19 pandemic has been exacerbated in Britain by Brexit barriers to trade and migration.

Asked if the BoE should have raised rates in November, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters the central bank "has been working with sound judgement" and noted there was an important meeting this week.

The IMF said Britain had recovered more strongly than expected from the pandemic but the latest Omicron variant was likely to cause a "mild slowdown" over the next three months.

Georgieva said Omicron could exacerbate inflation pressures in supply chains but a return to the severe lockdowns seen last year looked unlikely.

The IMF also said the BoE should also "take the earliest opportunity" to clarify how much it intended to reduce its 895 billion pounds ($1.18 trillion) of asset purchases to restore focus primarily on interest rates.

The BoE is due to complete its government bond purchases this week and has said it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds once Bank Rate rises to 0.5%.

GROWTH FORECAST UNCHANGED


The IMF believes Britain's economy will expand by 6.8% this year and 5.0% in 2022, after shrinking by a historic 9.8% in 2020 when it felt the full force of the pandemic.

However, it said British output would be 2.0%-2.5% smaller than its pre-pandemic trend.

Brexit dealt significant damage to trade with the European Union and there would be further difficulties when Britain implements customs checks on EU imports on Jan. 1, Georgieva said.

The IMF broadly welcomed the approach to fiscal policy taken by Britain's finance minister, Rishi Sunak, who said the report backed his decision to rein in stimulus measures at October's budget.

But Britain should be ready to reinstate its furlough programme and extra assistance for the poorest households if there are significant new lockdowns, the IMF said.

The government should also consider extra fiscal tightening next financial year rather than leaving more for 2023-2024, and look at raising the tax burden on wealthier households to boost investment in infrastructure, skills and decarbonisation.

($1 = 0.7557 pounds)

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
Autopsy Finds No Violence in Death of Epstein-Linked Model Scout
Indian Education Minister Resigns After Cockroach Youth Protests
California Desert Data-Centre Plan Stalls as Water and Power Disputes Mount
Northern Ireland Border Security Tightened After Military-Grade Explosive Interception
British Hospitality Sector Targets Summer Visitors Through Regional Promotions
England River Access Debate Intensifies After New Data Shows Limited Public Access
Royal Navy Strengthens Maritime Vigilance Amid Rising Security Concerns
UK Education Department Expands Mental Health Support for Young People Entering Work
UK Tourism Industry Launches Summer Campaigns to Boost Domestic Travel
North England Transport Plans Advance to Support Industrial Growth
Financial Markets Watch New Government’s Economic Strategy as Investors Assess Fiscal Risks
Royal Navy Continues Monitoring Russian Naval Activity Near UK Waters
UK Care Workers May Receive Immigration Exemptions Under Proposed Visa Changes
Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Begins Emergency Talks to Address NHS Staffing Shortages
UK Banks Launch High-Interest Savings Offers to Attract Household Deposits
North Sea Oil Drilling Projects Face Delays After Offshore Equipment Accident
Cairngorms Wildfire Highlights Growing Pressure on UK Emergency Services
UK Government Borrowing Plans Put Pressure on Ten-Year Gilt Markets
Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier HMS Prince of Wales Returns After NATO Northern Flank Mission
Metropolitan Police Opens Criminal Investigation Into Reform UK Political Donations
Scottish Government Requests Military Support as Cairngorms Wildfire Forces Emergency Response
Andy Burnham Takes Office as UK Prime Minister and Unveils New Cabinet Team
War, Youth Revolt and the Global Struggle for Control
War, Power and the Rising Price of Political Decisions
High Street Sales Suffer Sharpest Summer Decline in Five Years
Wales Approves Higher Taxes on Second Homes and Long-Term Empty Properties
Environment Agency Imposes Record £150 Million Penalty on Water Companies
UK Competition Watchdog Blocks U.S. Takeover of Cambridge Chip Designer
Scotland Unveils Land Reform Bill to Expand Renewable Energy Projects
Northern Ireland Secures £500 Million Technology Investment for Belfast Cybersecurity Hub
NHS Rolls Out AI Triage System Across Major Hospitals in England
UK Strengthens North Sea Naval Cooperation With European Allies
UK Chancellor Commits £7 Billion to Accelerate Manchester-Leeds Rail Link
Bank of England Signals Interest Rate Cuts After Inflation Falls Below Target
Badenoch Rejects Grant Shapps' Bid to Return as Conservative Candidate
BAE Chief Warns Britain Has Underestimated the Risk of War
Burnham Rules Out New Scottish Independence Referendum in First Talks With Swinney
UK Government Strengthens Northern Economic Agenda Through Manchester Headquarters and Regional Partnerships
United Kingdom Opens New Furness Peninsula Coastal Route Under King Charles the Third England Coast Path
England Reduces Business Costs for Hospitality Sector Through New Relief Package
United Kingdom Allocates Seven Point Three Million Pounds for Zero-Emission Aviation Research
United Kingdom Begins Restoration Works on Portishead Railway Line After Six Decades Without Passenger Services
United States Tariff Measures Create New Trade Challenges for United Kingdom and European Union Businesses
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Meets Scottish and Welsh Leaders to Promote Regional Growth Cooperation
United Kingdom Government Announces Twenty Percent Business Rates Cut for Pubs, Clubs, and Music Venues
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Opens Manchester Government Headquarters to Shift Decision-Making Away From Westminster
United Kingdom Defence Ministry Says Armed Forces Ready After Iran Accuses London Over US Military Strikes
United Kingdom Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent as Prime Minister Andy Burnham Gains Economic Breathing Room
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
×