London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026

IMF warns Bank of England not to be too slow to raise interest rates

IMF warns Bank of England not to be too slow to raise interest rates

The International Monetary Fund urged the Bank of England on Tuesday to avoid an "inaction bias" when it comes to raising interest rates as it forecast British inflation would hit a 30-year high of around 5.5% next year.

The BoE has said rates will need to rise to ensure that consumer price inflation - currently 4.2% - returns to its 2% target in the next couple of years.

But the central bank held off from a widely expected rate rise last month due to concern about the impact of the end of the government's job furlough programme, and is expected to do so again on Thursday due to the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

The IMF, in an annual report on Britain's economy, said the BoE faced difficult trade-offs but should not delay too long.

"It would be important to avoid inaction bias, in view of costs associated with containing second-round impacts. Careful communication would be needed to lay the groundwork with markets for potentially more frequent policy moves," it added.

A global inflation surge due to higher energy prices and supply-chain bottlenecks created by the COVID-19 pandemic has been exacerbated in Britain by Brexit barriers to trade and migration.

Asked if the BoE should have raised rates in November, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters the central bank "has been working with sound judgement" and noted there was an important meeting this week.

The IMF said Britain had recovered more strongly than expected from the pandemic but the latest Omicron variant was likely to cause a "mild slowdown" over the next three months.

Georgieva said Omicron could exacerbate inflation pressures in supply chains but a return to the severe lockdowns seen last year looked unlikely.

The IMF also said the BoE should also "take the earliest opportunity" to clarify how much it intended to reduce its 895 billion pounds ($1.18 trillion) of asset purchases to restore focus primarily on interest rates.

The BoE is due to complete its government bond purchases this week and has said it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds once Bank Rate rises to 0.5%.

GROWTH FORECAST UNCHANGED


The IMF believes Britain's economy will expand by 6.8% this year and 5.0% in 2022, after shrinking by a historic 9.8% in 2020 when it felt the full force of the pandemic.

However, it said British output would be 2.0%-2.5% smaller than its pre-pandemic trend.

Brexit dealt significant damage to trade with the European Union and there would be further difficulties when Britain implements customs checks on EU imports on Jan. 1, Georgieva said.

The IMF broadly welcomed the approach to fiscal policy taken by Britain's finance minister, Rishi Sunak, who said the report backed his decision to rein in stimulus measures at October's budget.

But Britain should be ready to reinstate its furlough programme and extra assistance for the poorest households if there are significant new lockdowns, the IMF said.

The government should also consider extra fiscal tightening next financial year rather than leaving more for 2023-2024, and look at raising the tax burden on wealthier households to boost investment in infrastructure, skills and decarbonisation.

($1 = 0.7557 pounds)

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
UK Ready to Back Emergency Oil Reserve Release as Middle East Conflict Pushes Prices Higher
Study of 40,000 Articles Sparks Debate Over Alleged Anti-Muslim Bias in UK Media
US and UK Army Chiefs Strengthen Cooperation on the Future of Armored Warfare
Britain’s Search for the Next ARM Intensifies as Startups and Investors Target the Semiconductor Frontier
Three US Strategic Bombers Arrive at RAF Fairford as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Cancer Death Rates in the UK Fall to the Lowest Level on Record
UK Government Bond Yields Retreat Slightly After Sharp Spike Triggered by Middle East Conflict
UK Chancellor Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher
UK Prime Minister Warns Iran Conflict Could Drive Up Prices and Threaten Economic Stability
Trump Declines UK Offer to Deploy Aircraft Carriers to Middle East Amid Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle to Return to Australia After Seven Years for Philanthropic and Business Engagements
UK Government Signals Independence From Washington as Cooper Says Britain Does Not Agree With Trump on Every Issue
UK Experts Warn AI Chatbots Are Fueling Surge in Claims of Organised ‘Satanic’ Ritual Abuse
UK Political Parties Divided Over Strategy as Iran Conflict Reshapes Foreign Policy Debate
Britain Discloses Secret Military Repair Hubs Operating Inside Ukraine
Trump Says US No Longer Needs UK Carrier Support After Delayed Offer Amid Iran Conflict
Why Britain Has Become Involved in the US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran
UK Gas Storage Falls to Under Two Days as Iran Conflict Jolts Global Energy Markets
UK Warned to Brace for Economic Shock as Iran War Drives Global Energy Price Surge
Starmer and Trump Hold First Call After Public Dispute Over Iran Conflict
UK Dentists Returned £1.3 Billion to Government as Shift Toward Private Care Accelerates
Expert Warns UK Must Build Emergency Food Stockpiles to Prepare for Climate Shocks or War
UK Plans Charter Flight to Evacuate British Nationals from Gulf as Regional Conflict Disrupts Air Travel
Families of Zimbabwe’s Liberation Fighters Call on Britain to Help Locate Skulls Taken During Colonial War
Iran’s Ambassador Warns Britain to ‘Be Very Careful’ Over Deeper Role in Expanding Middle East War
UK Military Leadership Defends Britain’s Defensive Role in Expanding Middle East Conflict
Four U.S. Strategic Bombers Arrive in Britain as Iran War Intensifies
Soham Murderer Ian Huntley Dies After Violent Attack in High-Security Prison
UK Lawmakers and Experts Condemn Scale of Overseas Human Remains Held in British Museums
Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier HMS Prince of Wales Placed on Standby for Potential Deployment
United Kingdom Confirms U.S. Military Using British Bases for Operations Targeting Iranian Missile Sites
Starmer Defends UK Role in Iran Conflict After Renewed Criticism from President Trump
Blue Owl Reveals £36 Million Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender Serving Wealthy Clients
UK Asylum Reform Plan Triggers Fierce Debate Over Border Control and Humanitarian Impact
US Stealth Bombers Head to UK Base as Trump Issues Stark Warning to Iran
UK Deputy Prime Minister Says Legal Case Could Exist for British Strikes on Iranian Missile Sites
Investigators Link Mysterious Parcel Fires Across Europe to Russian Intelligence Operation
Debate Intensifies Over Britain’s Legal Justification for US Military Operations Launched From UK Bases
Britain Faces Heightened Energy Price Risks as Iran-Linked Tensions Threaten Global Oil and Gas Supplies
×