London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Oct 18, 2025

Downing Street hints pensions triple lock will be watered down

Downing Street hints pensions triple lock will be watered down

Boris Johnson’s spokesperson has said there are concerns about tying state pensions rise to earnings
Downing Street has given its strongest signal yet that the pensions triple lock will be watered down because of the recent surge in average earnings, which under current rules would deliver a rise of more than 8% for pensioners next year.

Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said on Wednesday there were concerns about linking the rise in state pensions to earnings.

“I think we recognise the legitimate concerns about potentially artificially inflated earnings impacting the uprating of pensions,” he said. “Any decision on future changes to the triple lock will be taken at the appropriate time based on the latest data, and of course we will continue to support older people, while ensuring future decisions are fair with pensioners and taxpayers. No decisions have been made.”

The triple lock, which remains a Conservative manifesto commitment, promises to pay either 2.5%, the rate of inflation, or the level of earnings recorded in the July employment figures – whichever is the highest. Any suspension would be a victory for the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who has been lobbying No 10 for a temporary change to the rules.

Johnson is understood to have been reticent to temporarily abandon the pledge, given pensioners are a key Tory voter base, but the comments from the prime minister’s spokesperson indicate Sunak’s argument for fiscal discipline around pensions has found a hearing in Downing Street.

The chancellor has used an identical form of words in his public statements about the triple lock, saying any settlement must be fair to “taxpayers and pensioners”.

The Treasury has not budgeted for an increase of 8% in the state pension, and the chancellor is warning that other government spending priorities would suffer if he had to find an extra £4bn to uprate in line with earnings.

Sunak is weighing up two alternatives to the triple lock, both of which would leave pensioners with an increase of about 3% next year. One would would mean earnings being averaged over the past two years, with this year’s hefty rise balanced by zero earnings growth in 2020 when many workers were furloughed.

A second option is to revert temporarily to the previous system of a double lock in which this year’s state pension would increase by 2.5% or the September inflation rate, if that is higher.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the annual inflation rate falling from 2.5% to 2% in July, but economists believe the drop was a blip that is likely to be more than reversed over the coming months.

Removal of restrictions as the lockdown eased last summer meant there was an unusual monthly increase in prices of 0.4% last July but this was not repeated this year. With a more normal pattern of July discounting by clothing and footwear retailers, prices were flat last month.

The deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS, Jonathan Athow, said: “Inflation fell back in July across a broad range of goods and services, including clothing, which decreased with summer sales returning after the pandemic hit the sector last year. This was offset by a sharp rise in the price of secondhand cars amid increased demand, following a shortage of new models.

“The differing patterns of movement restrictions across the last two years have affected headline inflation. Some of this month’s fall came from products and services, such as foreign travel, where real prices were used last year but have had to be imputed this year.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
Ex-Microsoft Engineer Confirms Famous Windows XP Key Was Leaked Corporate License, Not a Hack
China’s lesson for the US: it takes more than chips to win the AI race
Australia Faces Demographic Risk as Fertility Falls to Record Low
California County Reinstates Mask Mandate in Health Facilities as Respiratory Illness Risk Rises
Israel and Hamas Agree to First Phase of Trump-Brokered Gaza Truce, Hostages to Be Freed
French Political Turmoil Elevates Marine Le Pen as Rassemblement National Poised for Power
China Unveils Sweeping Rare Earth Export Controls to Shield ‘National Security’
The Davos Set in Decline: Why the World Economic Forum’s Power Must Be Challenged
France: Less Than a Month After His Appointment, the New French Prime Minister Resigns
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary will not adopt the euro because the European Union is falling apart.
Sarah Mullally Becomes First Woman Appointed Archbishop of Canterbury
Mayor in western Germany in intensive care after stabbing
Australian government pays Deloitte nearly half a million dollars for a report built on fabricated quotes, fake citations, and AI-generated nonsense.
×