Democrats worry that pollsters are undercounting Donald Trump’s voter support, which could mean his chances of winning the November presidential election are higher than current polls indicate. Kamala Harris holds narrow leads in key battleground states, and recent polls show Trump leading in important Sun Belt states. Projections say Trump could win major battlegrounds if he outperforms polling predictions as in 2020, suggesting possible miscalculations in likely voter turnout.
Democrats are growing anxious about potential undercounting of
Donald Trump’s support in polls, with fears that his winning prospects in the November presidential election might be much higher than current opinion polls suggest.
Despite Kamala Harris showing moderate national leads, her margin is narrow in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states Trump performed strongly in past elections.
A New York Times/Siena poll also indicates Trump is leading in three crucial Sun Belt states: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Polls indicate a smaller gap in North Carolina and a lead for Trump in Arizona and Georgia.
Projections suggest Trump could win all seven battleground states, including Nevada, if he surpasses poll predictions as in the 2020 election.
Data analysis further decreases Harris's average lead by 2.4% across swing states, hinting at potential miscalculations in voter turnout likelihood.
Despite Harris's slight edge, her post-debate bounce was minimal, keeping the race highly competitive.