London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 21, 2026

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

It is going to be a "difficult summer" with Covid cases in the UK possibly reaching 200,000 a day, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said there could be as many as 2,000 hospital admissions per day, which would cause "major disruption" to the NHS.

England and Scotland are set to ease restrictions from Monday.

The UK recorded more than 50,000 cases on both Friday and Saturday.

The last time case numbers were that high was in mid-January.

Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.

He said maintaining that level could be described as "success".
"The real question is do we get to double that, or even higher?" he said, though adding that it was "much less certain" to predict.

He said a further 500,000 people could get long Covid.

Prof Ferguson said the "best projections" were that the peak of this wave could occur between August and mid-September, and it would take around three weeks to know the impact of relaxing restrictions.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has described England's approach to easing lockdown as "cautious but irreversible".

Asked whether restrictions could be reintroduced, Prof Ferguson said there may be "a need to slow the spread to some extent" if hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day.

"It's going to be a difficult summer for many reasons... I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario," he said.

"Going into the the winter, I think we will have quite quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months."

He added that flu "could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year".

Earlier, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said there would be "some quite challenging weeks ahead".

Social distancing rules will end in England on Monday, although government guidelines advise face coverings should still be worn in enclosed spaces such as in shops and on public transport.

"We will all need to exercise good judgement," Mr Jenrick told Sky News.

Scotland will move to level zero of Covid restrictions on Monday, meaning pubs and restaurants can open until midnight. However, limits on outdoor meetings will remain, the return of workers to offices will be delayed and face coverings will still be mandatory.

Most Covid rules in Wales are set to be scrapped from 7 August, but face coverings will still be required in most public places and on public transport.

In Northern Ireland, restrictions will be eased further on 26 July, if approved at a review on 22 July

In other key developments:

* The prime minister and chancellor will self-isolate as normal following contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who tested positive for coronavirus, after initially saying they would take part in a pilot scheme involving daily testing.

* Mr Jenrick said a decision on routinely offering Covid jabs to under-18s will be made within days.

* Thousands of people with long Covid could benefit from the funding of 15 new studies of the condition, its causes and potential treatments.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Confirms Preferential U.S. Trading Terms Will Continue After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
U.S. and U.K. to Hold Talks on Diego Garcia as Iran Objects to Potential Military Use
UK Officials Weigh Possible Changes to Prince Andrew’s Position in Line of Succession Amid Ongoing Scrutiny
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
United Kingdom Denies U.S. Access to Military Base for Potential Iran Strike
British Co-founder of ASOS falls to his death from Pattaya apartment
Early 2026 Data Suggests Tentative Recovery for UK Businesses and Households
UK Introduces Digital-First Passport Rules for Dual Citizens in Border Control Overhaul
Unable to Access Live Financial Data for January UK Surplus Report
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
Nordic Fracture: How Criminal Scandals and Toxic Ties are Dismantling the Norwegian Crown
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
A Lunar New Year event in Taiwan briefly came to a halt after a temple official standing beside President Lai Ching‑te suddenly vomited, splashing Lai’s clothing
Jillian Michaels reveals Bill Gates’ $55 million investment in mRNA vaccines turned into over $1 billion.
Ex-Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's arrested
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Four Chagos Islanders Establish Permanent Settlement on Atoll
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
UK Inflation Slows Sharply in January, Strengthening Case for Bank of England Rate Cut
Hide the truth, fake the facts, pretend the opposite, Britain is as usual
France President Macron says Free Speech is Bull Sh!t
Viktor Orbán getting massive praise for keeping Hungary safe, rich and migrant-free!
UK Inflation Falls to Ten-Month Low, Markets Anticipate Interest Rate Cut
UK House Prices Climb 2.4% in December as Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation
BAE Systems Predicts Sustained Expansion as Defence Orders Reach Record High
Pro-Palestine Activists Cleared of Burglary Charges Over Break-In at UK Israeli Arms Facility
Former Reform UK Councillors Form New Local Group Amid Party Fragmentation
Reform UK Pledges to Retain Britain’s Budget Watchdog as It Seeks Broader Economic Credibility
×