London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 08, 2025

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

It is going to be a "difficult summer" with Covid cases in the UK possibly reaching 200,000 a day, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said there could be as many as 2,000 hospital admissions per day, which would cause "major disruption" to the NHS.

England and Scotland are set to ease restrictions from Monday.

The UK recorded more than 50,000 cases on both Friday and Saturday.

The last time case numbers were that high was in mid-January.

Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.

He said maintaining that level could be described as "success".
"The real question is do we get to double that, or even higher?" he said, though adding that it was "much less certain" to predict.

He said a further 500,000 people could get long Covid.

Prof Ferguson said the "best projections" were that the peak of this wave could occur between August and mid-September, and it would take around three weeks to know the impact of relaxing restrictions.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has described England's approach to easing lockdown as "cautious but irreversible".

Asked whether restrictions could be reintroduced, Prof Ferguson said there may be "a need to slow the spread to some extent" if hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day.

"It's going to be a difficult summer for many reasons... I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario," he said.

"Going into the the winter, I think we will have quite quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months."

He added that flu "could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year".

Earlier, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said there would be "some quite challenging weeks ahead".

Social distancing rules will end in England on Monday, although government guidelines advise face coverings should still be worn in enclosed spaces such as in shops and on public transport.

"We will all need to exercise good judgement," Mr Jenrick told Sky News.

Scotland will move to level zero of Covid restrictions on Monday, meaning pubs and restaurants can open until midnight. However, limits on outdoor meetings will remain, the return of workers to offices will be delayed and face coverings will still be mandatory.

Most Covid rules in Wales are set to be scrapped from 7 August, but face coverings will still be required in most public places and on public transport.

In Northern Ireland, restrictions will be eased further on 26 July, if approved at a review on 22 July

In other key developments:

* The prime minister and chancellor will self-isolate as normal following contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who tested positive for coronavirus, after initially saying they would take part in a pilot scheme involving daily testing.

* Mr Jenrick said a decision on routinely offering Covid jabs to under-18s will be made within days.

* Thousands of people with long Covid could benefit from the funding of 15 new studies of the condition, its causes and potential treatments.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Justice Department Seeks Release of Epstein and Maxwell Grand Jury Exhibits Amid Legal and Victim Challenges
Scotland’s First Minister Meets Trump Amid Visit Highlighting Whisky Tariffs, Gaza Crisis and Heritage Links
Trump Administration Increases Reward for Arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro to Fifty Million Dollars
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
Matt Taibbi Slams Media for Role in Russiagate Narrative
Pilots Call for Mental Health Support Without Stigma
All Five Trapped Miners Found Dead After El Teniente Mine Collapse
Ong Beng Seng Pleads Guilty in Corruption Case Linked to Former Singapore Transport Minister
×