London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Nov 27, 2025

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

It is going to be a "difficult summer" with Covid cases in the UK possibly reaching 200,000 a day, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said there could be as many as 2,000 hospital admissions per day, which would cause "major disruption" to the NHS.

England and Scotland are set to ease restrictions from Monday.

The UK recorded more than 50,000 cases on both Friday and Saturday.

The last time case numbers were that high was in mid-January.

Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.

He said maintaining that level could be described as "success".
"The real question is do we get to double that, or even higher?" he said, though adding that it was "much less certain" to predict.

He said a further 500,000 people could get long Covid.

Prof Ferguson said the "best projections" were that the peak of this wave could occur between August and mid-September, and it would take around three weeks to know the impact of relaxing restrictions.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has described England's approach to easing lockdown as "cautious but irreversible".

Asked whether restrictions could be reintroduced, Prof Ferguson said there may be "a need to slow the spread to some extent" if hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day.

"It's going to be a difficult summer for many reasons... I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario," he said.

"Going into the the winter, I think we will have quite quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months."

He added that flu "could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year".

Earlier, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said there would be "some quite challenging weeks ahead".

Social distancing rules will end in England on Monday, although government guidelines advise face coverings should still be worn in enclosed spaces such as in shops and on public transport.

"We will all need to exercise good judgement," Mr Jenrick told Sky News.

Scotland will move to level zero of Covid restrictions on Monday, meaning pubs and restaurants can open until midnight. However, limits on outdoor meetings will remain, the return of workers to offices will be delayed and face coverings will still be mandatory.

Most Covid rules in Wales are set to be scrapped from 7 August, but face coverings will still be required in most public places and on public transport.

In Northern Ireland, restrictions will be eased further on 26 July, if approved at a review on 22 July

In other key developments:

* The prime minister and chancellor will self-isolate as normal following contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who tested positive for coronavirus, after initially saying they would take part in a pilot scheme involving daily testing.

* Mr Jenrick said a decision on routinely offering Covid jabs to under-18s will be made within days.

* Thousands of people with long Covid could benefit from the funding of 15 new studies of the condition, its causes and potential treatments.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
UK Government Launches Consultation on Major Overhaul of Settlement Rules
Google Struggles to Meet AI Demand as Infrastructure, Energy and Supply-Chain Gaps Deepen
Car Parts Leader Warns Europe Faces Heavy Job Losses in ‘Darwinian’ Auto Shake-Out
Arsenal Move Six Points Clear After Eze’s Historic Hat-Trick in Derby Rout
Wealthy New Yorkers Weigh Second Homes as the ‘Mamdani Effect’ Ripples Through Luxury Markets
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
UK Unveils Critical-Minerals Strategy to Break China Supply-Chain Grip
Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” Extends U.K. No. 1 Run to Five Weeks
UK VPN Sign-Ups Surge by Over 1,400 % as Age-Verification Law Takes Effect
Former MEP Nathan Gill Jailed for Over Ten Years After Taking Pro-Russia Bribes
Majority of UK Entrepreneurs Regard Government as ‘Anti-Business’, Survey Shows
UK’s Starmer and US President Trump Align as Geneva Talks Probe Ukraine Peace Plan
UK Prime Minister Signals Former Prince Andrew Should Testify to US Epstein Inquiry
Royal Navy Deploys HMS Severn to Shadow Russian Corvette and Tanker Off UK Coast
China’s Wedding Boom: Nightclubs, Mountains and a Demographic Reset
Fugees Founding Member Pras Michel Sentenced to 14 Years in High-Profile US Foreign Influence Case
WhatsApp’s Unexpected Rise Reshapes American Messaging Habits
United States: Judge Dressed Up as Elvis During Hearings – and Was Forced to Resign
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
Zelenskyy Signals Progress Toward Ending the War: ‘One of the Hardest Moments in History’ (end of his business model?)
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
The U.S. State Department Announces That Mass Migration Constitutes an Existential Threat to Western Civilization and Undermines the Stability of Key American Allies
Students Challenge AI-Driven Teaching at University of Staffordshire
Pikeville Medical Center Partners with UK’s Golisano Children’s Network to Expand Pediatric Care
Germany, France and UK Confirm Full Support for Ukraine in US-Backed Security Plan
UK Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods Face Rising Backlash as Pandemic Schemes Unravel
×