London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

It is going to be a "difficult summer" with Covid cases in the UK possibly reaching 200,000 a day, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said there could be as many as 2,000 hospital admissions per day, which would cause "major disruption" to the NHS.

England and Scotland are set to ease restrictions from Monday.

The UK recorded more than 50,000 cases on both Friday and Saturday.

The last time case numbers were that high was in mid-January.

Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.

He said maintaining that level could be described as "success".
"The real question is do we get to double that, or even higher?" he said, though adding that it was "much less certain" to predict.

He said a further 500,000 people could get long Covid.

Prof Ferguson said the "best projections" were that the peak of this wave could occur between August and mid-September, and it would take around three weeks to know the impact of relaxing restrictions.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has described England's approach to easing lockdown as "cautious but irreversible".

Asked whether restrictions could be reintroduced, Prof Ferguson said there may be "a need to slow the spread to some extent" if hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day.

"It's going to be a difficult summer for many reasons... I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario," he said.

"Going into the the winter, I think we will have quite quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months."

He added that flu "could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year".

Earlier, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said there would be "some quite challenging weeks ahead".

Social distancing rules will end in England on Monday, although government guidelines advise face coverings should still be worn in enclosed spaces such as in shops and on public transport.

"We will all need to exercise good judgement," Mr Jenrick told Sky News.

Scotland will move to level zero of Covid restrictions on Monday, meaning pubs and restaurants can open until midnight. However, limits on outdoor meetings will remain, the return of workers to offices will be delayed and face coverings will still be mandatory.

Most Covid rules in Wales are set to be scrapped from 7 August, but face coverings will still be required in most public places and on public transport.

In Northern Ireland, restrictions will be eased further on 26 July, if approved at a review on 22 July

In other key developments:

* The prime minister and chancellor will self-isolate as normal following contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who tested positive for coronavirus, after initially saying they would take part in a pilot scheme involving daily testing.

* Mr Jenrick said a decision on routinely offering Covid jabs to under-18s will be made within days.

* Thousands of people with long Covid could benefit from the funding of 15 new studies of the condition, its causes and potential treatments.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Lightning Strike Kills Yala FC Player During Match in Southern Thailand
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
UK Government Pushes New Procurement, Skills and Technology Policies Amid Economic Pressure
UK Charity Commission Investigates Donations Linked to Israeli Settlement Groups
UK Government Faces Pressure Over Possible Windfall Tax on Bank Profits
South East Water Provides Emergency Support After Kent Supply Disruptions
UK Defence Supports US Operation to Seize Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Green Party Wins First Westminster By-Election Seat in Historic Gorton and Denton Victory
UK Farmers Face Rising Bluetongue Disease Cases Among Sheep Flocks
UK Government Warns Retailers and Fuel Suppliers Against Exploiting Price Pressures
Apple, AI Deepfakes and New UK Rules Highlight Growing Digital Regulation Challenges
UK Education Department Expands Fully Funded Apprenticeships for Under-25s
National Crime Agency and Spanish Police Arrest Scotland’s Most Wanted Fugitive in Madrid
UK Labour Government’s Devolution Plans Renew Debate Over Written Constitution
EY UK Forecasts Weak Growth in 2026 as Energy Risks Continue to Pressure Households
Apple Challenges UK Government Demand for Access to Encrypted iCloud Data
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein Network and Institutional Links
Cabinet Office Reforms UK Government Procurement Rules to Prioritize Local Jobs and Skills
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
BP Reports Four-Year High Quarterly Profit of Five Point Seven Billion Dollars Amid Energy Market Turmoil
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at Three Point Seven Five Percent as UK Growth Remains Weak
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
Met Police Investigated Journalist Who Questioned Cambridge Professor
Badenoch Defends Tory Candidate Jailed for Antisemitic Abuse of Luciana Berger
NHS Spends £240m a Year Storing Paper Records Despite Digital Push
Apple Seeks Court Order to Stop OpenAI Using Alleged Trade Secrets
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Comcast: Tied to a Chair and Hit in the Face With Cake: The Regular Humiliation Ritual at the US Corporate Giant
Aston Martin Faces Legal Threat Over £550m Rescue Deal
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Growing Scrutiny Over Political Transparency
GMB and Public Sector Unions Prepare for Wider Debate Over Government Priorities
UK Government Faces Pressure to Address National Water Infrastructure Failures
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients
Breast Cancer Experts Call for Overhaul of NHS Diagnostic Approach
UK Government Reviews Prison Policy After Debate Over Capacity and Public Safety
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Leadership Discussions and Five Million Pound Donation
×