London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025

Covid restrictions ‘similar to lockdown’ needed to reduce hospitalisations in UK

Covid restrictions ‘similar to lockdown’ needed to reduce hospitalisations in UK

Documents released by Sage reveal bleak picture amid high number of cases of the Omicron variant
Restrictions “similar in scale to the national lockdown” are needed to keep hospital admissions from coronavirus below previous peaks, experts warned on Saturday.

Amid high numbers of cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) revealed the bleak picture painted by advisers throughout December as the threat from the strain rose.

Advice included that indoor mixing is the “biggest risk factor” for the spread of the variant of coronavirus, and that large gatherings risked creating “multiple spreading events”.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) said in documents released on Saturday but dated 8 December that in almost all modelling “a significant reduction in transmission (similar in scale to the national lockdown implemented in January 2021 and the ‘pingdemic’ in July 2021) is required to keep hospitalisations below the height of previous peaks.”

The advice from 10 days ago adds: “Earlier intervention also reduces the wave of hospitalisations.”

Minutes from a Sage meeting on Thursday said stricter measures could be needed, including “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high-risk premises”.

The experts warned that even if transmission rates were reduced, hospital admission levels were likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000 a day in England by the end of the year.

And modelling showed that if ministers stuck to the current plan B measures, there would be a peak of 3,000 a day.

It comes as the number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to seven, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said, from the previous figure of one.

Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 85, from 65.

The UKHSA said there had been 10,059 additional confirmed cases of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 reported across the UK.

This brings the total confirmed cases of the variant in the UK to 24,968.

The Sage documents said: “Some scenarios have significantly worse outcomes during the first few months of 2022 but there are many uncertainties.”

And the ramping up of the booster programme would not help, as many of those admissions would be those who are infected now.

They warned that delaying introducing stricter measures until 2022 would “greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings”.

It comes after reports that officials had drawn up plans for a two-week circuit breaker lockdown after Christmas.

The Liberal Democrats have called for parliament to be recalled on Monday to debate the next steps.

Party leader Sir Ed Davey said: “We cannot allow the prime minister to sit on his hands while the NHS and businesses are on the brink of collapse.

“Ministers must explain the latest scientific advice to MPs and ensure a proper debate over future Covid measures, including support to help businesses through this increasingly difficult period.”

Earlier Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews and member of Sage, said it was clear that plan B measures alone would not be enough to stop the spiralling numbers of cases.

Prof Reicher, who was speaking to Times Radio in a personal capacity, said the time to act was now.

Reicher said: “The only way really, or at least the most effective way, we can have an immediate effect is to decrease the number of contacts we have.

“In many ways, the most effective way of diminishing contact is to have a circuit-breaker.

“Now, you could have it after Christmas; the problem is after Christmas it’s probably too late, it’s probably by then we will have had a huge surge of infections with all the impact upon society.

“When people say ‘look, we don’t want to close down’: of course, we don’t want to close down.

“But the problem is at the moment things are closing down anyway, because of the spread of infection. So I think we need to act now.”

A government spokesperson said: “The government will continue to look closely at all the emerging data and we’ll keep our measures under review as we learn more about this variant.”

Cabinet ministers received a briefing on Saturday on the latest situation regarding the Omicron variant.

There was no meeting of the cabinet or further discussion, but ministers were given an update on the data surrounding the variant.

A Cobra meeting will be held over the weekend with the devolved nations.

A further 90,418 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases have been recorded in the UK as of 9am on Saturday, the government said.

A further 125 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19.

Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have now been 172,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

Meanwhile the World Health Organization said the Omicron variant had been identified in 89 countries as of Thursday and had a doubling time of between 1.5 and three days.

It said data is still limited on the severity of the strain, but added: “Given rapidly increasing case counts, it is possible that many healthcare systems may become quickly overwhelmed.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
×