London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026

Cost of living: UK economy edges closer to stagnation with factory slump

Cost of living: UK economy edges closer to stagnation with factory slump

A deepening downturn in manufacturing output is only just offset by modest expansion of the larger services sector, but Britain still performs better than the eurozone which fell further into recession territory as higher energy costs squeezed consumer spending.

UK private sector growth has moved closer to stagnation as it slowed to a new 18-month low, dragged down by a slump in factory output, latest data indicates.

The closely watched S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) composite flash estimate dropped to 50.9 in August from 52.1 in July, its lowest since February 2021 and close to the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

Economists had forecast the index would fall less sharply to 51.1.

Annabel Fiddes, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "The UK private sector moved closer to stagnation in August, as mild growth of activity across the service sector only just offset a deepening downturn at manufacturers.

"Waning customer demand amid the weaker economic outlook, and shortages of both staff and inputs, were reported to have hit goods producers hard, with firms registering the quickest drops in output and new work since May 2020."

The slowdown in overall growth was largely driven by a sharper slump in manufacturing output from UK factories.

The manufacturing sector reported monthly output of 42.4, representing the steepest fall for more than two years.

Firms reported "reduced customer demand, the delayed delivery of inputs and labour shortages" for the month.

Separate figures from the Confederation of British Industry, also released on Tuesday, showed the first fall in factory output since February 2021 and the weakest order book since April that year.

Meanwhile, the larger services sector saw only modest expansion, with a 52.5 measure for August.

John Glen, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), said: "Service companies had a better month, but only marginally as new order levels were sustained and optimism remained that customers would continue to buy throughout the year.

"However, this may reverse quite quickly.

"There are many concerns keeping private sector business owners awake at night, such as disruptions to supply chains from war, the highest inflation in the UK for almost 50 years, the impact of higher interest rates and now port disruptions in the UK, to name a few."

Nevertheless, companies signalled a further easing in the rate of cost inflation.

Manufacturers reported the rate of their cost inflation slowed to the lowest since November 2020 as commodities such as metals came down in value, although a continued tight labour market pushed up services companies' costs slightly.

Britain's composite PMI, covering manufacturing and services, exceeded that for the eurozone which fell further into recession territory as higher energy costs - caused largely by Russia's invasion of Ukraine - squeezed consumer spending.

The Bank of England has warned that Britain too is likely to slip into a recession at the end of 2022 which will last until 2024 as energy bills are expected to push consumer price inflation above 13% in October, having already hit a 40-year high of 10.1% in July.

Economists at Citi forecast on Monday that inflation would exceed 18% in January when the energy price cap is due to rise again.

HSBC said the latest figures sent mixed messages to the central bank for its decision next month on whether to raise interest rates by another half a percentage point, after it did so for the first time since 1995 earlier this month.

HSBC economist Elizabeth Martins said: "The fall in manufacturing is ammunition for the doves, as are the trends in pricing.

"But strong demand, employment and staff costs in the sector that accounts for 80% of GDP - services - also looks hawkish."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Lightning Strike Kills Yala FC Player During Match in Southern Thailand
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
UK Government Pushes New Procurement, Skills and Technology Policies Amid Economic Pressure
UK Charity Commission Investigates Donations Linked to Israeli Settlement Groups
UK Government Faces Pressure Over Possible Windfall Tax on Bank Profits
South East Water Provides Emergency Support After Kent Supply Disruptions
UK Defence Supports US Operation to Seize Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Green Party Wins First Westminster By-Election Seat in Historic Gorton and Denton Victory
UK Farmers Face Rising Bluetongue Disease Cases Among Sheep Flocks
UK Government Warns Retailers and Fuel Suppliers Against Exploiting Price Pressures
Apple, AI Deepfakes and New UK Rules Highlight Growing Digital Regulation Challenges
UK Education Department Expands Fully Funded Apprenticeships for Under-25s
National Crime Agency and Spanish Police Arrest Scotland’s Most Wanted Fugitive in Madrid
UK Labour Government’s Devolution Plans Renew Debate Over Written Constitution
EY UK Forecasts Weak Growth in 2026 as Energy Risks Continue to Pressure Households
Apple Challenges UK Government Demand for Access to Encrypted iCloud Data
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein Network and Institutional Links
Cabinet Office Reforms UK Government Procurement Rules to Prioritize Local Jobs and Skills
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
BP Reports Four-Year High Quarterly Profit of Five Point Seven Billion Dollars Amid Energy Market Turmoil
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at Three Point Seven Five Percent as UK Growth Remains Weak
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
Met Police Investigated Journalist Who Questioned Cambridge Professor
Badenoch Defends Tory Candidate Jailed for Antisemitic Abuse of Luciana Berger
NHS Spends £240m a Year Storing Paper Records Despite Digital Push
Apple Seeks Court Order to Stop OpenAI Using Alleged Trade Secrets
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Comcast: Tied to a Chair and Hit in the Face With Cake: The Regular Humiliation Ritual at the US Corporate Giant
Aston Martin Faces Legal Threat Over £550m Rescue Deal
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Growing Scrutiny Over Political Transparency
GMB and Public Sector Unions Prepare for Wider Debate Over Government Priorities
UK Government Faces Pressure to Address National Water Infrastructure Failures
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients
Breast Cancer Experts Call for Overhaul of NHS Diagnostic Approach
UK Government Reviews Prison Policy After Debate Over Capacity and Public Safety
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Leadership Discussions and Five Million Pound Donation
×