London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Budget 2021: Rishi Sunak warns tax rises to follow spending spree

Budget 2021: Rishi Sunak warns tax rises to follow spending spree

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has warned that a spending spree to support workers and spur investment will be followed by tax rises as the economy recovers.

The UK's rapid Covid-19 vaccine rollout is expected to help the economy get back to its pre-pandemic size six months sooner than previously expected.

Official forecasts expect growth to hit 4% this year, while an extension of the furlough scheme will limit job losses.

Mr Sunak said future tax hikes were needed to stop "irresponsible" debt.

UK leading on vaccines


The government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said the UK had been at the "vanguard" of the discovery of new and effective vaccines.

It said this will foster a "swifter and more sustained" economic recovery, with the pace of growth expected to strengthen to 7.3% in 2022.


This would be the highest growth rate since official records began in 1949 and help the economy to return to its pre-pandemic size in the middle of next year.

Mr Sunak unveiled plans to spend tens of billions of pounds more over the next two years to support the economic recovery, including tax breaks designed to encourage business investment.

However, the chancellor said tax rises were also needed to help repair the public finances.

Mr Sunak announced that corporation tax will rise from 19% to 25% for large companies in 2023, while day-to-day spending by government departments will be cut by a further £4bn a year.

Mr Sunak said it would be "irresponsible to allow our future borrowing and debt to rise unchecked".

Chris Sanger, head of tax policy at EY, described the Budget as "three years of support, followed by three years (and more) of pain".

Mr Sanger added: "Time [is] the Chancellor's friend in his aim of replenishing the Government's coffers."

'Euphoria' to spur spending


The government's target to have all adults vaccinated this summer is expected to pave the way for the lifting of public health restrictions.

The OBR noted that British households had built up a savings war chest of around £180bn in the past year.

It expects a quarter of this to be spent as lockdowns end, saying there could be a "degree of euphoria", especially among better-off households who "treat themselves" when the economy opens up.


The main thrust of this Budget is significant extra immediate crisis support, both in terms of the furlough scheme and self employed support, and a radical "super-deduction" policy to encourage business investment right now.. That is £60bn extra in one year and it comes from borrowed money. That leaves borrowing in the coming financial year significantly higher than expected. A much larger proportion of the exceptional world war-style borrowing over the past year will stay in place in the coming year.

The happy result of this is that unemployment, though rising, peaks at a much lower level than previous expectations, just over 6%, rather than, say, 10%. This is a consequence of both the vaccine rollout and the support package, leading to a reopening of the economy over summer.

The jabs and then the jobs. But then the payback, with a massive rise in £16bn corporation tax and the £8bn changes to thresholds for the last two years of the Parliament. The Conservative manifesto commitments on not increasing VAT, income tax or national insurance are binding here.

So Rishi Sunak is left with the first rise in corporation tax since Dennis Healey's 1974 Budget. It turns a careful strategy of using corporation tax as a lever for foreign investment on its head. For many in the vanguard of the Conservative Brexit movement, very low levels of this tax were one of the building blocks of "Singapore-on-Thames". Singapore is staying in South East Asia.

The timing of this tax rise at the end of a Parliament is not the normal order of things. But the Covid pandemic is far from normal.

However, the watchdog warned that economic uncertainty remained "considerable", and would depend on controlling variants of the virus.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the chancellor was "betting on a recovery fuelled by a consumer spending blitz".

He added: "The chancellor may think that this is time for a victory lap, but I'm afraid this Budget won't feel so good for the millions of key workers who are having their pay frozen, for the businesses swamped by debt, and the families paying more in council tax."

Unemployment is expected to peak at a lower rate of 6.5%, keeping it well below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

However, this means half a million more people are expected to be out of work by the end of this year.


Government borrowing is expected to rise to a peacetime high of £354.6bn this year to help pay for economic support measures.

The size of the UK's debt pile is also expected to remain larger than the economy until at least the middle of the decade.

Mr Sunak said: "It's going to take this country - and the whole world - a long time to recover from this extraordinary economic situation. But we will recover."


Income tax allowances frozen


From April, he will also freeze the amount of money employees earn before paying income tax at £12,570 until the middle of the decade.

The OBR estimates an extra 1.3 million people will start to pay income tax by 2026 as a result of the freeze.

The level at which employees start paying the higher, 40% rate of tax will also be frozen at £50,270 from April, dragging an extra million people into the band within five years.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
UK Prime minister, Mr. Keir Starmer, has stated that any peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine "MUST" include a US security guarantee to deter Russian aggression
×