London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 12, 2026

After Prop 22 vote, all eyes are on Uber earnings

After Prop 22 vote, all eyes are on Uber earnings

Uber investors breathed a sigh of relief this week as Californians voted to pass a ballot measure that defends the business model it pioneered by allowing it to continue treating its drivers as independent contractors in the state, rather than employees.

The company's stock rose nearly 15% Wednesday on news that the Proposition 22, or "Prop 22," had passed.

With Election Day behind it, the company must now confront investors about other significant issues, like when it will stop losing billions of dollars and the ongoing negative impacts of the coronavirus on its business.

Uber reports its third quarter earnings after market close Thursday. The company's revenue is expected to decline to $3.2 billion compared to $3.8 billion during the same period last year, and it is expected to post a loss per share of $0.65, or an estimated loss of $1.1 billion, compared to a $0.68 per share loss during the same period last year, according to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.

Here's where Uber stands and what analysts are watching for.

One cloud over its business has cleared


Tom White, an analyst at DA Davidson, told CNN Business that the regulatory cloud when it comes to driver classification has been "backburnered" with the California vote.

Prop 22 was designed to side-step a new California law, Assembly Bill 5 or AB-5, which went into effect on January 1 and codifies an "ABC" test to determine if workers are employees who are entitled to labor protections and benefits.

Classifying their drivers as employees has long been viewed as a potential existential threat to Uber, which scaled its business with a massive fleet of workers it treated as independent contractors, shirking the responsibility of costly benefits entitled to employees, such as a minimum wage, overtime, paid sick leave and unemployment insurance.

Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Instacart and Uber-owned Postmates sunk more than $200 million to fight Prop 22 because had it failed, the company would have had to fundamentally alter its business model.

BTIG analyst Jake Fuller wrote in an investor note Wednesday that if it had failed to pass, it would likely have meant Uber would cut drivers and increase fares to offset the cost of reclassifying drivers as employees. It "would have been a drag" on revenue and earnings, he wrote.

In an industry note ahead of Election Day, Wedbush analysts wrote Monday that not passing Prop 22 "will likely lead to a net-negative financial impact in California, and potentially other states." Wedbush analysts reacted to the vote, saying "this removes a significant overhang and dark cloud for the likes of Uber and Lyft."

Prior to the outcome of the Prop 22 vote, Wall Street "had concerns that other cities and states could follow California on the employee model shift if Prop 22 did not pass," they wrote.

But the passage of Prop 22 gave investors reason to be optimistic about how it could fare when faced with other driver classification challenges in the future.

Prop 22 will grant some benefit concessions, but not the full suite of protections employees would get, such as workers' compensation or unemployment insurance. These concessions are less expensive, which is better for Uber's bottom line in its quest to stop bleeding money. (Opponents say this comes at the expense of some drivers.)

The outcome of the California ballot measure was viewed as bellwether for how Uber and other gig economy companies may navigate regulatory battles in other parts of the country. Uber is currently facing a regulatory battle over worker classification in Massachusetts, for example.

DA Davidson's White said he expects the Prop 22 model which defines a "new class" of workers will be one "the rest of the nation ends up following."

When will Uber turn a profit?


Investors are eager to hear if the company has any updates on its timeline to achieving profitability on an adjusted basis, which it previously projected to investors that it will do by sometime next year.

Last quarter, Uber posted revenue of $2.2 billion, a 29% decline compared to the same period last year. It lost $1.8 billion during the quarter, and a staggering $2.9 billion during the first quarter of this year. In total, Uber lost $8.5 billion in 2019.

With its ride-hail business dwindling due to the virus, Uber's delivery business, Eats, has taken on new importance and became its biggest source of revenue last quarter as people increasingly rely on its service during the pandemic. In July, Uber announced it would acquire one of its competitors in the space,
Postmates, in a bid to bolster its food delivery business.

As CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said at the Wall Street Journal's Tech Live conference last month, Eats is not yet profitable, and the company believes it will reach profitability around the same time as its overall business.

White said he is watching to see if Uber reveals to what extent growth in its delivery business, Eats, is having on the company's overall race to profitability.

Investors are carefully monitoring the business given how competitive the delivery marketplace is - some competitors in the US include DoorDash, and Grubhub - and how businesses compete on driving down prices to win customers.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Nearly 100,000 NHS Patients Treated in Hospital Corridors as England Braces for Winter Pressures
UK Government Rejects US-Russia Diesel Agreement and Reaffirms Sanctions Against Moscow
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
UK Government Drops Plan to Suspend Jury Trials in England and Wales
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Markets Watch November
Two Iranian Nationals Charged Over Alleged Plot Targeting Manchester Jewish Community
UK Fiscal Headroom Halves to £11 Billion Ahead of Budget, EY Warns
US Bomber Withdrawal From RAF Fairford Prompts UK Security Review
×