London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Aug 08, 2026

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Yale University's Stephen Roach is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a sharp dollar decline.

Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.

“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”

His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.

“These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,” said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is up more than one percent over the past two weeks and is relatively flat so far this year. But Roach believes it’s no time to get complacent.

“The national savings rate is probably going to go deeper into negative territory than it has ever done for the United States or any leading economy in economic history,” he said.

Roach contends other forces are at play, too.



‘Lethal combination’

“At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,” said Roach. “That’s a lethal combination.”

The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually?

His timeline is rough — over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it’s a risk investors shouldn’t ignore.

“Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets,” he added. “It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates.”

He’s concerned a crash could spark a late 1970s-type stagflation crisis, when prices rose sharply while economic growth was muted.

According to Roach, not even a leadership change in Washington in November would be able to move the needle much — especially as lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.
Comments

Oh ya 6 year ago
And many are saying tbis not just him. Have you go a plan? Places with year round warm weather will shine. Hard to grow a garden in the snow. Live in a apartment? well sucks to be you. Buy a fishing rod, build a pantry. Chickens fit in yards very well

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Australian Crew Evacuates Seriously Ill American From Antarctica in Midwinter Darkness
Trump’s Top General Seeks an Exit Strategy From Iran War, Report Says
Brock Lesnar Retires From Wrestling, Closing a Career of Rare Athletic Range and Lasting Controversy
Welsh First Minister Raises Independence With UK Prime Minister in First High-Level Call
UK Maintains Severe Terror Threat Level as Prevent Report Highlights Online Radicalization
YouGov Poll Shows Labour Favourability Improves as Reform UK and Greens Lose Ground
Brexit Campaigner Arron Banks Admits Hiring Private Investigator to Examine Journalist
Robert Jenrick Leaves Conservatives for Reform UK in Major Parliamentary Defection
July 2026 Was England and Wales’ Driest Month on Record, Met Office Says
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Connections
Trump-Era Policy Shifts Test the Boundaries of U.S. Institutions
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
US Health Secretary: “I’m Not Afraid of Germs — I Used to Snort Cocaine Off Toilet Seats”
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Trump Keeps Hegseth at Pentagon While Leaving Door Open for DeSantis
UK Clears Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery Deal, but US Trial Looms
UK Prosecutors Add 38 Charges Against Andrew and Tristan Tate
Taiwan’s President Joins Wartime Command Drill as China Pressure Grows
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mutual-Defence Pact
Government Orders Review of Prison Release Rules After Concerns Over Grooming Gang Offenders
Rail Disruption Continues Across North-West England Amid Infrastructure Problems and Engineering Closures
UK Tax Authority Proposes Broad Changes to Rules Governing Company Distributions
UK Government Moves to Protect Standing Areas Outside Pubs From Local Restrictions
Extreme Right-Wing Referrals Under UK Prevent Programme Rise 42 Percent
EU Citizens in UK Warned That Some Residency Rights May Have Been Granted in Error
Every Monitored Body of Water in England Fails Chemical Purity Standards, Government Data Shows
UK Scientists Create First Artificial Intelligence-Designed Viruses
England Orders Primary Schools to Identify Children at Risk of Becoming Disengaged From Education or Work
Government Moves to Close Prison Release Loophole Amid Concern Over Grooming Gang Offenders
UK Economy Shows Modest Growth Despite Energy Volatility and Global Supply Pressures
Police and Prosecutors Failed to Stop Sex Offender Who Later Murdered Two Women, Review Finds
Millions in England Face Longer Mental Health Waiting Times as NHS Providers Cut Spending
Met Office Warns of Heatwave as Temperatures Across England and Wales Could Reach 36 Degrees Celsius
HMRC’s 2029 Tax Shift Could Overlap Old and New Self-Assessment Bills
Thetford Disorder Prompts Expanded Police Powers Amid Asylum-Housing Protests
Cambridge Faces Calls for Independent Review of Jason Arday Appointment
Scotland’s ‘Cock of the North’ Woodland Is Being Felled After Wind Damage
Reform UK and Greens Unite Against Vast Solar Plans for Kent Marshland
New Zealand Draws Wealthy Americans With Revamped Investor Visa
Senate Panel Votes to Hold Anthony Fauci in Contempt After Fifth Amendment Testimony
Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Resigns as University Opens Inquiry Into His Credentials
Manchester Power Failure Disrupts Trains Across North West Into Friday
UK Fashion and Tourism Sectors Prepare for Strong Summer and Autumn Activity
London Residents Seek Appeal Against Approval for Chinese Super-Embassy Development
UK Environment Officials Issue Biosecurity Alert Over Rising Bluetongue Cases in Livestock
UK Charity Regulator Opens Investigations Into Donations Linked to Israeli Settlements
Gatwick Expansion and Chinese Embassy Plans Highlight Growing UK Infrastructure Disputes
UK Agriculture Authorities Warn of Rising Bluetongue Virus Cases Among Sheep Farms
×