London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 28, 2026

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns

The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Yale University's Stephen Roach is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a sharp dollar decline.

Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.

“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”

His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.

“These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,” said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is up more than one percent over the past two weeks and is relatively flat so far this year. But Roach believes it’s no time to get complacent.

“The national savings rate is probably going to go deeper into negative territory than it has ever done for the United States or any leading economy in economic history,” he said.

Roach contends other forces are at play, too.



‘Lethal combination’

“At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,” said Roach. “That’s a lethal combination.”

The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually?

His timeline is rough — over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it’s a risk investors shouldn’t ignore.

“Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets,” he added. “It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates.”

He’s concerned a crash could spark a late 1970s-type stagflation crisis, when prices rose sharply while economic growth was muted.

According to Roach, not even a leadership change in Washington in November would be able to move the needle much — especially as lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.
Comments

Oh ya 6 year ago
And many are saying tbis not just him. Have you go a plan? Places with year round warm weather will shine. Hard to grow a garden in the snow. Live in a apartment? well sucks to be you. Buy a fishing rod, build a pantry. Chickens fit in yards very well

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Nearly 23,000 UK Households Expected to Move Home on Busiest Day of 2026
UK Benefit Payments to Arrive Early Ahead of August Bank Holiday
Reform UK Pledges to Replace GDPR and Cut Tax Administration Red Tape
Andy Burnham Launches Work Experience Plan for One Million Young People Outside Education or Work
Andy Burnham Faces Labour Backlash After Dropping Support for Political Donations Cap
Andy Burnham Announces UK-Wide Summit With Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
Met Office Warns of Heavy Rain and Flood Risk Across England and Wales After Summer Heat
Bank of England Warns AI Adoption Could Reduce Demand for Automatable Jobs
UK Confirms National Salmonella Outbreak With More Than 200 Cases
UK Airports Handle Record 81 Million Passengers Despite Middle East Disruption
Ofgem Raises UK Energy Price Cap by Four Percent to £1,723
Cyber Attack Hits Customer Data Systems at Manchester, Stansted and East Midlands Airports
TSA Unveils Major Airport-Security Overhaul as It Drops Gold+ Privatization Plan
CIA Chief Warned Russia Against Attacking NATO in Secret Moscow Mission
Raheem Sterling Charged With Dangerous Driving After Lamborghini Crash
The Secret Dolly Parton Kept Until Her Death: "She Was Much Sicker Than She Let On"
Middlesbrough House Fire Kills Woman and Seven-Year-Old Girl
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Return to UK Amid Renewed Media Attention
Raheem Sterling Charged With Dangerous Driving After London Collision
Greenpeace Threatens Legal Action Over Crown Estate Offshore Wind Leasing
Nvidia Revenue Surges to Ninety-Six Point Two Billion Dollars on Artificial Intelligence Demand
Meta Agrees to Global Youth Safety Changes Following Multi-State Legal Settlement
UK Government Plans Autumn Summit With Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Leaders
CMA Caps Veterinary Prescription Fees at Twenty-One Pounds
Thames Water Pilot Records Forever Chemicals at Thirteen Times the Legal Limit
Kent Meningitis Outbreak Reaches Thirty-Four Confirmed Cases
Forty Children Missing From UK Asylum Accommodation Remain Unaccounted For
UK Court Upholds VAT on Private School Fees
US Designates Palestine Action as Foreign Terrorist Organization
UK Approves Massive New Chinese Embassy Complex in London Amid Security Concerns
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Visits Kyiv and Offers Cruise Missile Designs to Ukraine
Glacier Collapse, Not Earthquake, Triggered Deadly Nepal-Tibet Flood
Andy Burnham Drops Plan to Cap Political Donations
Conservative Leadership Contest Intensifies as Robert Jenrick Attacks Kemi Badenoch
French-Born Defence Secretary Wes Streeting Condemns Homophobic Abuse Since Taking Office
UK Government Delays Commercial Robotaxi Rollout in London Over Regulatory Gaps
NHS Complaints About Autism and ADHD Care Waiting Times Triple Over Five Years
UK Government Launches 10,000 Work Placements for Young People With Sainsbury's
NHS England to Offer Free At-Home Cervical Cancer Screening Kits
EU Biometric Border Checks Cause Delays of Up to Five Hours for British Travellers
US Imposes Economic Sanctions on UK-Based Protest Group Palestine Action
Two Planned UK Datacentres Could Produce More Annual Carbon Emissions Than ExxonMobil's Entire UK Operation
London Surgeons Complete First Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Brain Tumour Removal
UK Services Growth Rebounds as Consumer Confidence Reaches Two-Year High
Ofgem Confirms Four Percent October Energy Price Cap Increase for UK Households
Government Considers Insolvency Law Changes to Bring Thames Water Into Public Ownership
Andy Burnham Signs Artificial Intelligence Defence Pact During Visit to Kyiv
Church of England Faces Renewed Scrutiny Over Historical Safeguarding Failures
Reform UK Proposes £30 Tax Credit for Long HMRC Telephone Queues
Greater Manchester Secures More Than £100 Million to Upgrade Victorian Railway Stations
×