London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jun 19, 2026

Wuhan's Covid-19 infections may have been almost 10 times higher than official figure, study shows

Wuhan's Covid-19 infections may have been almost 10 times higher than official figure, study shows

Nearly half a million residents in the Chinese city where the novel coronavirus first emerged may have been infected with Covid-19 -- almost 10 times its official number of confirmed cases, according to a study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The study used a sample of 34,000 people in the general population in Wuhan -- the original epicenter of the pandemic -- and other cities in Hubei province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai, and the provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning to estimate Covid-19 infection rates.

The researchers found an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43% for Covid-19 among residents in Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million people. As of Sunday, Wuhan had reported a total of 50,354 confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

The study aimed to estimate the scale of past infections in a population by testing blood serum samples from a pool of people for coronavirus antibodies. Its findings are not taken to be final statistics of how many people in a given area have been exposed to the virus.

The Chinese CDC said the study was conducted a month after China "contained the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic." The prevalence rate outside of Wuhan is significantly lower, the study showed. In other cities in Hubei, only 0.44% of residents surveyed were found to have coronavirus antibodies.

Outside the province, antibodies were only detected in two people among the more than 12,000 residents surveyed.
The results of the study were revealed in a Chinese CDC post on social media Monday. It did not mention whether the study has been published in academic journals.

Underreported coronavirus infections
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the study points to a problem of underreporting in infections during the height of the outbreak in Wuhan, partly due to the chaos at the time and a failure to include asymptomatic cases in the official count of confirmed cases.

In January and February, patients with fevers flooded Wuhan's hospitals, which lacked the manpower, testing kits and medical resources to diagnose and treat them. Instead, many were told to go home and self-isolate -- some ended up infecting other family members, while others died at home without being recorded in the Covid-19 death tolls.

Underreporting is a problem faced by health authorities in many countries, often due to a lack of capacity and resources. Antibody studies conducted by researchers in other parts of the world also show the coronavirus was much more prevalent than official numbers suggest.

A study sponsored by the New York State Department of Health, for example, showed that by the end of March, one in seven New York adults had Covid-19 -- about 10 times higher than the official account. In August, another study found coronavirus antibodies in more than 27% of the 1.5 million New York City residents tested.

But in China, there is also the question of transparency, as officials gave the public more optimistic data than they had access to internally.

Since February 12, Hubei health authorities started to include "clinically diagnosed cases" in the count of confirmed infections. On that day, some 13,000 previously undisclosed "clinically diagnosed cases" in the province were added to new confirmed infections, resulting in a nine-fold increase in daily cases from the previous day.

Leaked documents from the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention presented earlier to CNN by a whistleblower showed prior to that day, authorities had reported "clinically diagnosed cases" internally, but did not reveal them to the public. Hubei authorities also publicly reported a lower count of confirmed cases and deaths on February 10 and March 7 than they recorded internally, the documents showed.

Authorities have also cracked down on citizen journalists who reported on the harsh reality of overflowing hospitals in Wuhan. On Monday, Zhang Zhan, a former lawyer who documented the outbreak at its height in Wuhan, was sentenced to four years in jail for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble." Two other independent journalists -- Li Zehua and Fang Bin -- were also detained following their coverage of the outbreak.

Effective containment in Wuhan
The study highlights a huge contrast between the coronavirus antibody prevalence rates inside and outside of Wuhan.
Huang said the significantly lower rates in other Chinese cities suggest "Chinese containment efforts were indeed speedy and effective, especially compared to cities like New York."

In an unprecedented bid to contain the rapidly spreading virus, Wuhan was sealed off from the outside world on January 23, with all flights, trains and buses canceled, and highway entrances blocked.

Inside the city, the government imposed a draconian lockdown. For more than two months, public transport in Wuhan was suspended, businesses were shut and millions of residents were confined to their homes and residential communities -- not even allowed to go outside for grocery shopping.

However the 76-day lockdown came at a huge cost to residents, especially those who needed to go to the hospital, as all public transport was suspended and there weren't enough taxis available to patients.

Nevertheless, the sweeping measures have been heralded by the Chinese government as having allowed the country to turn a corner in its fight against the outbreak.

The Chinese CDC, meanwhile, also highlighted China's victory in containing the virus when releasing the antibody study results on Monday.

"The results of the study show that our country's population has a low infection rate. It indicates that China has succeeded in controlling the epidemic with Wuhan as the main battlefield, and effectively controlled the large-scale spread of the epidemic," the agency said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Payment Fraud Losses Reach £1.28 Billion and Raise National Security Concerns
Lending to Small Businesses Climbs to Highest Level Since Late 2024
Middle East Conflict Clouds UK Economic Recovery Despite Strong First-Quarter Growth
Bank of England Moves to Simplify Capital Rules for Smaller Lenders
UK Government Fast-Tracks National Security and Cyber Resilience Legislation
Ofcom Investigates Telegram Over Alleged Role in Organising Arson Attacks
MPs Press Fujitsu to Speed Compensation for Post Office Horizon Victims
Bank of England Delays Final Basel III Implementation Changes to Support UK Banking Competitiveness
Pound Falls as Political Uncertainty and Bank of England Signals Weigh on Markets
0Andy Burnham Wins Makerfield By-Election and Emerges as Main Challenger to Keir Starmer
Dorset Council Tests AI Tools to Streamline Local Planning Applications
UK Researchers at Kew Gardens Use AI to Speed Up Identification of Threatened Plant Species
UK Gilt Yields Ease Toward 4.8% as Inflation and Labour Market Data Weigh on Bonds
Bank of England Data Shows Resilient SME Lending Despite Economic Slowdown
UK Finance Reports Weakening Services Activity as Business Confidence Softens
UK Introduces Mandatory Internal Complaints Process Under Data Use and Access Act
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Flags Geopolitical Uncertainty as Key Risk to Inflation Outlook
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Policymakers Signal Cautious Stance on Inflation Risks
Cornwall Clergy Raise £40,000 for Church Repairs Through Everest-Themed Charity Challenge
UK Business and Social Landscape Reflects Strain From Geopolitical and Domestic Pressures
Tensions Grow in UK Over Sikh Kirpan and Religious Symbolism in Public Debate
Energy Price Cap Increase Set to Lift UK Household Bills by 13 Percent
University of Reading Ranked 196th in QS World University Rankings
UK Maritime Archaeologists Identify 17th-Century Dutch Shipwreck Off Devon Coast
Oxford Union Islam Debate Sparks Protest From Faith Leaders in UK
UK Social Cohesion Debate Intensifies After Religious Prejudice Survey Findings
UK SME Lending Rises Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty and Cautious Outlook
Foreign Demand for UK Gilts Remains Sensitive to Global Inflation Trends
Labour Party Faces Leadership Pressure After Weak Local Election Results in UK
Transport Costs Drive Inflation Pressure as Petrol Prices Push Up UK CPI
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Weighs on Investment
UK Economy Grows 0.6 Percent in First Quarter but Outlook Remains Weak
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75 Percent as Inflation Risks Persist
Energy Price Cap Rise Expected to Keep UK Inflation Above Target Through 2026
Health Authorities Warn of Rising Cases of Seasonal Respiratory Illnesses
BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce Advance Multi-Nation Fighter Aircraft Programme
National Archives Publish Declassified Documents on Cold War Energy Security Planning
British Retail Spending Rises Despite Continuing Cost-of-Living Pressures
Wales Launches Social Housing Pilot to Address Affordability Pressures
British Energy Companies Commit £5 Billion to Geothermal and Hydrogen Projects
Northern Ireland Debates Cross-Border Healthcare Partnership With the Republic of Ireland
UK Establishes National Artificial Intelligence Safety Centre With Leading Universities
UK Reports Decline in Small Boat Crossings After Expanding Intelligence Cooperation With France
Scottish Parliament Launches Inquiry Into Delays to Renewable Energy Projects
National Crime Agency Dismantles Alleged Multi-Million-Pound Money Laundering Network in London
Transport Strikes Disrupt Rail and Bus Services Across Northern England
United Kingdom and European Union Open New Security Dialogue on Defense and Border Cooperation
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 5% as Services Inflation Remains Elevated
UK Government Unveils Major National Health Service Reform Focused on Decentralization and Performance Funding
Government Advances New Airport Slot Rules to Ease Airline Operating Constraints
×