London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026

Why New York has been hit so hard by coronavirus

Why New York has been hit so hard by coronavirus

New York state reached a tragic milestone this week: It now has more Covid-19 patients than any country in the world, aside from the United States.
The state's total of 181,026 cases, as of April 11, is higher than Spain's (161,852 cases) and Italy's (152,271), countries with populations many times larger than New York.

The disease is killing New Yorkers disproportionately. Of the 20,389 deaths in the United States, 8,627, or 42%, have occurred in New York. Its mortality rate is 4.7%, compared with 3.4% in the rest of the country, according to CNN's figures based on data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

New York City and its suburban counties - Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland - are responsible for 93% of the statewide case count. Furthermore, in New York City, the Covid-19 death rate is about 6% higher than most countries.

Why does New York seem to be having a different epidemic from most other parts of the country?

Is the reason simply population size and density? New York is by far the nation's most populous city, with more than 8 million people, twice as many as Los Angeles. But New York also has eight or nine times more cases than any other city -so what gives? No other city or county has a fraction of the cases of New York City.

A caution on numbers: Counting cases and mortality rates is difficult because most counting is done by county or borough or parish rather than city, and city of residence may differ from city of diagnosis or death. Even so, New York City is off the charts.

How about population density? Covid-19 spreads most easily when people are packed together - in churches or cruise ships, in outdoor events like concerts or Mardi Gras, or perhaps in small apartments with multiple roommates or large families. New York's population density, about 27,000 people per square mile, is easily the highest in the country, though it's nowhere near the top for cities across the globe. Many cities - in Asia, for example - have a density of nearly 40,000 people per square mile.

The density explanation may explain some of the difference, but not all of it. New York's densest borough is Manhattan, while relatively sprawling Queens sits at fourth out of five. But Queens has more than twice the cases and twice the rate of cases as Manhattan.

Maybe it's because so much testing is being done in New York. If you test more, you find more, and if you find more, you test even more. It is likely that more tests, and more tests per population, are performed in New York than elsewhere in the United States, and that the New York rate stacks up favorably to countries with aggressive testing programs, such as Iceland and South Korea and Germany, but comparative information is sketchy. The split between tests performed by public versus private labs has made accurate tracking just about impossible, despite the heroic efforts of such groups as Covidtracking.com, Worldometers, and Our World in Data.

Furthermore, the current advice - stay home if you are sick but stable and don't be tested - introduces additional uncertainty. This pales in comparison to the clear evidence of deaths at home likely due to Covid-19 but never diagnosed. So yes, New York City probably is testing at a brisker pace than elsewhere and yes, this may contribute to the high case numbers, but we will never have an accurate picture.

The high number of cases and rates likely do derive in some modest amount to each explanation above - plus the fact that the epidemic has been in New York City a week or two longer than many other places. A more mature epidemic is always a larger epidemic.

More concerning is the elevated mortality rate in New York City. As has been well documented, some of this is due to the tragic overwhelming of the city's hospitals. We will never know just how many people died due to the country's inept preparation for the pandemic, but the impact surely was, and still is, substantial.

Still, a mortality rate of about 6% is quite high, even though most countries, particularly in western Europe, have seen mortality rates rise as the pandemic drags on. As patients who have hung on for weeks have begun to die, and the rate of new cases has slowed, this tilts the proportion of fatal cases.

New York City also has had a very male outbreak; substantially more men have been diagnosed, hospitalized and have died, in keeping with data seen in other countries.

Sadly, the likeliest explanation for the high death rate, though, is the chronically inadequate health care given to minorities and the poor throughout New York City, as in the rest of the country. New York City and New York state have only now released the race distribution of cases and deaths, as well as by zip code, a surrogate for poverty rates. It is clear that severe disease has not been distributed equally by race and ethnicity.

Black and Hispanic New Yorkers represent 51% of the city's population, yet account for 62% of Covid-19 deaths. They have twice the rate of death compared with whites, when adjusted for age. This likely is due to both a higher proportion of black and Hispanic New Yorkers being diagnosed with severe disease and a higher rate of death among those who are known to be infected.

This disparity likely is the result of several factors. Co-morbid conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, are strongly associated with death from Covid-19 and are more common in black and Hispanic communities. But what causes high rates of poorly controlled hypertension and diabetes? Lack of appropriate health care. People who cannot easily find good health care for reasons of money, time, location, or trust may be more likely to stay at home undiagnosed and spread the virus - as well as experience potentially fatal delays in diagnosis and treatment.

The explanation is the same for New York City as for Italy, New Orleans and probably Iran: the virus exploits weaknesses in health and health care, be it advanced age or co-morbidity or access to care.

Hopefully, the Covid-19 pandemic will force us to reckon honestly with the many shortfalls that have been exposed and build a fair, forward-thinking approach that allows doctors and nurses to care for people in need. Failure to do this will only further darken the memory of those who have died and the hearts of those who remain.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Barclays Moves to Acquire GoHenry in Bid to Expand Youth-Focused Fintech Services
UK Lupus Patients Show Remission in NHS Genetic Therapy Trial
London Clean Air Zones Linked to Fewer Emergency Hospital Admissions for Respiratory Illness
UK World Cup Scheduling Research Suggests Energy Bill Savings From Off-Peak Usage
UK Economic Anxiety Rises Among Young People Over Long-Term Job Prospects
NHS Expands Meningitis B Vaccination Programme for School Leavers and New Students
London Ultra-Low Emission Zone Linked to Drop in Emergency Respiratory Hospital Admissions
Derbyshire Police Officer Investigated Over Alleged Use of AI-Generated Evidence in Case Files
UK Parents Back Proposed Under-16 Social Media Ban as Online Safety Concerns Grow
Four Palestine Action Activists Jailed Over Sabotage Attack on Israeli-Linked Arms Facility
Barclays to Acquire GoHenry in Push to Expand Digital Banking for Children and Teenagers
UK Government Reaffirms Defence Spending Commitment Amid Cabinet Pressure and Political Disputes
Belfast Unrest Prompts Security Review as Paramilitary Activity Comes Under Renewed Scrutiny
SpaceX IPO Pushes Elon Musk to Become World’s First Trillionaire After Record Valuation Surge
United States and Iran Near Landmark Peace Framework as Negotiations Reach Final Stages
UK Competition Watchdog Investigates Ryanair Family Seating Charges
Imperial College Study Links London Emissions Charges to Lower Hospital Admissions
Scottish First Minister Launches US Trade Initiative Ahead of World Cup Match in Boston
Fifteen Million Workers Gain Expanded Sick Pay Rights Under UK Reforms
British Retail Investors Secure Record Participation in SpaceX Share Offering
Keir Starmer and Micheál Martin Coordinate Response to Northern Ireland Violence
NHS Prepares for Major Disruption as Resident Doctors Announce Four-Day Strike
Bank of England Expected to Hold Rates as Energy Costs Complicate Inflation Outlook
Britain Moves to Ban Under-16s From High-Risk Social Media Platforms and AI Chatbots
UK Economy Contracts as Middle East Conflict Weighs on Growth
Defence Secretary John Healey Resigns Over Military Spending Dispute With Treasury
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Faces Leadership Crisis After Senior Cabinet Resignations
NHS Trust Secures Funding for AI Tool to Detect Heart Failure Earlier
Government Unveils £4.5 Billion Investment Plan for Walking and Cycling Infrastructure
Nationwide Reports UK House Prices Falling as Borrowing Costs Remain Elevated
Centre for Social Justice Says Two Million Britons Are Using Illegal Loan Sharks
UK Carmakers Warn EU Local Content Rules Could Damage British Manufacturing
UK Government Imposes Emergency Ban on Seven Potent Synthetic Opioids
Royal Navy Completes Major North Atlantic Anti-Submarine Exercise Off Norway
NHS Figures Show Nearly 3,000 Patients a Day Receiving Care in Hospital Corridors
CBI Cuts UK Growth Forecast as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Risks Higher
Dan Jarvis Appointed UK Defence Secretary Following Major Government Reshuffle
University College London Study Links Physical Punishment to Higher Risk of Bullying
East Midlands Railway Unveils First Refurbished Train in £60 Million Modernization Programme
RNLI Issues National Water Safety Appeal Ahead of Expected Heatwave
Climate Change Raises Subsidence Risks for Millions of Homes Across Southeast England
Manchester Advances Plans for Underground Piccadilly Station With £1 Million Funding Commitment
Anti-Immigration Violence Continues in Belfast Amid Heightened Security Concerns
UK Law Locks Great British Railways Into Public Ownership
Office for National Statistics Adopts Supermarket Checkout Data for Inflation Measurement
Applied Atomics Launches With $500 Million Space Infrastructure Order Book
BYD Plans Nationwide Rollout of Ultra-Fast EV Charging Network
UK House Prices Unexpectedly Fall in May
CBI Warns UK Growth Is Becoming Increasingly Dependent on Public Spending
Makerfield By-Election Fuels Speculation Over Labour’s Future Leadership
×