London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026

Why New York has been hit so hard by coronavirus

Why New York has been hit so hard by coronavirus

New York state reached a tragic milestone this week: It now has more Covid-19 patients than any country in the world, aside from the United States.
The state's total of 181,026 cases, as of April 11, is higher than Spain's (161,852 cases) and Italy's (152,271), countries with populations many times larger than New York.

The disease is killing New Yorkers disproportionately. Of the 20,389 deaths in the United States, 8,627, or 42%, have occurred in New York. Its mortality rate is 4.7%, compared with 3.4% in the rest of the country, according to CNN's figures based on data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

New York City and its suburban counties - Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland - are responsible for 93% of the statewide case count. Furthermore, in New York City, the Covid-19 death rate is about 6% higher than most countries.

Why does New York seem to be having a different epidemic from most other parts of the country?

Is the reason simply population size and density? New York is by far the nation's most populous city, with more than 8 million people, twice as many as Los Angeles. But New York also has eight or nine times more cases than any other city -so what gives? No other city or county has a fraction of the cases of New York City.

A caution on numbers: Counting cases and mortality rates is difficult because most counting is done by county or borough or parish rather than city, and city of residence may differ from city of diagnosis or death. Even so, New York City is off the charts.

How about population density? Covid-19 spreads most easily when people are packed together - in churches or cruise ships, in outdoor events like concerts or Mardi Gras, or perhaps in small apartments with multiple roommates or large families. New York's population density, about 27,000 people per square mile, is easily the highest in the country, though it's nowhere near the top for cities across the globe. Many cities - in Asia, for example - have a density of nearly 40,000 people per square mile.

The density explanation may explain some of the difference, but not all of it. New York's densest borough is Manhattan, while relatively sprawling Queens sits at fourth out of five. But Queens has more than twice the cases and twice the rate of cases as Manhattan.

Maybe it's because so much testing is being done in New York. If you test more, you find more, and if you find more, you test even more. It is likely that more tests, and more tests per population, are performed in New York than elsewhere in the United States, and that the New York rate stacks up favorably to countries with aggressive testing programs, such as Iceland and South Korea and Germany, but comparative information is sketchy. The split between tests performed by public versus private labs has made accurate tracking just about impossible, despite the heroic efforts of such groups as Covidtracking.com, Worldometers, and Our World in Data.

Furthermore, the current advice - stay home if you are sick but stable and don't be tested - introduces additional uncertainty. This pales in comparison to the clear evidence of deaths at home likely due to Covid-19 but never diagnosed. So yes, New York City probably is testing at a brisker pace than elsewhere and yes, this may contribute to the high case numbers, but we will never have an accurate picture.

The high number of cases and rates likely do derive in some modest amount to each explanation above - plus the fact that the epidemic has been in New York City a week or two longer than many other places. A more mature epidemic is always a larger epidemic.

More concerning is the elevated mortality rate in New York City. As has been well documented, some of this is due to the tragic overwhelming of the city's hospitals. We will never know just how many people died due to the country's inept preparation for the pandemic, but the impact surely was, and still is, substantial.

Still, a mortality rate of about 6% is quite high, even though most countries, particularly in western Europe, have seen mortality rates rise as the pandemic drags on. As patients who have hung on for weeks have begun to die, and the rate of new cases has slowed, this tilts the proportion of fatal cases.

New York City also has had a very male outbreak; substantially more men have been diagnosed, hospitalized and have died, in keeping with data seen in other countries.

Sadly, the likeliest explanation for the high death rate, though, is the chronically inadequate health care given to minorities and the poor throughout New York City, as in the rest of the country. New York City and New York state have only now released the race distribution of cases and deaths, as well as by zip code, a surrogate for poverty rates. It is clear that severe disease has not been distributed equally by race and ethnicity.

Black and Hispanic New Yorkers represent 51% of the city's population, yet account for 62% of Covid-19 deaths. They have twice the rate of death compared with whites, when adjusted for age. This likely is due to both a higher proportion of black and Hispanic New Yorkers being diagnosed with severe disease and a higher rate of death among those who are known to be infected.

This disparity likely is the result of several factors. Co-morbid conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, are strongly associated with death from Covid-19 and are more common in black and Hispanic communities. But what causes high rates of poorly controlled hypertension and diabetes? Lack of appropriate health care. People who cannot easily find good health care for reasons of money, time, location, or trust may be more likely to stay at home undiagnosed and spread the virus - as well as experience potentially fatal delays in diagnosis and treatment.

The explanation is the same for New York City as for Italy, New Orleans and probably Iran: the virus exploits weaknesses in health and health care, be it advanced age or co-morbidity or access to care.

Hopefully, the Covid-19 pandemic will force us to reckon honestly with the many shortfalls that have been exposed and build a fair, forward-thinking approach that allows doctors and nurses to care for people in need. Failure to do this will only further darken the memory of those who have died and the hearts of those who remain.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Automotive Manufacturers Urge Government Action as High Energy Costs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions Threaten Production
Metropolitan Police Issue Formal Apology Following Inadvertent Release of Confidential Information During High-Profile Investigation
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Unveils Devolved Budget Highlighting Housing and Public Service Adjustments
Energy Regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Prepares to Remove Household Gas Standing Charges Following Treasury Mandate
Treasury Confirms Reversal of Planned Cash Individual Savings Account Allowance Reduction Protecting Twenty Thousand Pound Limit
Office for Budget Responsibility Revisions Predict Moderate United Kingdom Economic Growth with Elevated Inflation Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Highlighting Temporary Bank Surcharge and Cost-of-Living Support
Met Office Issues Extended Forecast Highlighting Stable High Pressure Weather Patterns Across the United Kingdom
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Outlines Changes to Tax Thresholds and Residential Property Levies in Edinburgh
Financial Markets and Government Bond Yields Remain Stable Following Muted Reaction to Autumn Budget Measures
Defence Committee Chair Tan Dhesi Criticizes Budget for Delaying Critical Defence Spending Decisions to Next Year
International Monetary Fund Forecasts United Kingdom Economic Growth at One Point Three Percent for Year
Office for Budget Responsibility Assesses Fiscal Headroom Reduced to Fifteen Billion Pounds Following Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget Introducing Household Energy Support and Bank Tax Hikes
Aberdeen City Council Co-Leader Faces Binding Vote Challenge as Local Councillors Launch High Court Legal Battle
Housebuilding Across Scotland Falls to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Declarations of a Housing Emergency
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown Organizes National Innovation Summit in Manchester to Boost Regional Competitiveness
UK Government Faces Mounting Criticism Over Lack of Environmental Consultation During Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Talks
Greggs Announces Closure of Four Major Manufacturing Facilities Across Britain Resulting in Seven Hundred Forty Job Losses
British Retail Consortium Warns That Cumulative Employment and Regulatory Costs Threaten High Street Price Stability
Lloyds Banking Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn Warns That Increased Bank Taxes Could Deter Long-Term Economic Investment
Ipsos Polling Reveals Seven in Ten Britons Expect Personal Tax Increases Amid Deep Public Economic Pessimism
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Amid Tight Fiscal Constraints and Slower Growth Forecasts
United Kingdom Finance Monthly Review Highlights Rising Long-Term Borrowing Costs and Persistent Energy Price Pressures Across British Markets
Royal Marines Pioneer Rapid Autonomous Drone Operations During Major High North Exercise Involving NATO Allies
House of Commons Justice Committee Urges Chancellor to Align Prison and Courts Reform Ambitions With Concrete Budgetary Resources
Government Investigates Rapid Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Strategy Following Scrutiny Over Power Grid Demands and Planning Backlogs
His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Warns Third-Party Supplier Breaches Threaten United Kingdom Police and Fire Service Data
Number of British Businesses in Financial Distress Reaches Highest Level in Two Decades Ahead of Fiscal Announcement
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intense Market Scrutiny Over Fiscal Headroom and Spending Pressures
Education or Indoctrination? The Growing Debate Over Religious Participation in British Schools
Germany's Vanishing Shopfronts: The Silent Collapse of the Businesses That Built Its Cities
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Agreement on Public Transport Modernization and Cross-Border Rail Infrastructure Funding
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves New North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage Industrial Clusters
Office for National Statistics Reports Stabilization in Private Rental Growth Across Major English and Welsh Regional Cities
United Kingdom Automotive Manufacturing Output Rises Moderately as Electric Vehicle Assembly Lines Expand in the Midlands
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Inquiry Into Cloud Computing Infrastructure and Artificial Intelligence Partnerships
Scottish Government Finalizes Emergency Budget Adjustments Following Multi-Year Public Sector Funding Shortfalls
National Health Service England Announces Major Emergency Care Overhaul to Alleviate Severe Winter Capacity Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intensifying Scrutiny Over Public Spending and Fiscal Rules
Bank of England Signals Cautious Approach to Further Interest Rate Cuts as Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures Remain
Transport for London Unveils Expanded Zero-Emission Bus Fleet to Meet Capital Air Quality Targets
Higher Education Institutions Face Deepening Financial Strain Amid Declining International Student Enrolment
Automotive Industry Leaders Criticize Government Tax Policies and Urge Action on Retail Consumer Confidence
Environment Agency Issues Flood Alerts Across Scottish and English Waterways Following Heavy Rainfall
Independent Audit Highlights Persistent Security Vulnerabilities Across Legacy Government Digital Portals
Northern Ireland Political Leaders Clash Over Westminster Funding Allocations Ahead of Autumn Budget
Ethnic Minorities in England Face Significant Disparities in Routine Breast Cancer Diagnosis Rates
National Police Chiefs Report Alarming Surge in Domestic Abuse Cases Fuelled by Expanding Illegal Cocaine Market
Government Announces Two Hundred and Twenty Million Pound Pothole Funding Boost for Local Highway Authorities
×