London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

What is a recession and how could it affect me?

What is a recession and how could it affect me?

The UK economy may already be in a recession, the Bank of England has warned.

So what exactly does that mean?

What is a recession?


In normal times, a country's economy grows.

Its citizens, on average, become slightly richer as the value of the goods and services it produces - its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - increases.

But sometimes their value falls, and a recession is usually defined as when this happens for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

When this happens it's a sign the economy is doing badly.

The last time the UK went into recession was in 2020 at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

Why does a recession matter?


For most people, economic growth is good.

It usually means there are more jobs, and companies are more profitable and can pay employees and shareholders more.

A growing economy also gives the government more money in taxes. So it can cut taxes, or spend more on benefits, public services and government workers' wages.

When the economy shrinks, all these things go into reverse.

Are we in another recession?


The Bank of England thinks so.

It expects the UK economy to have shrunk 0.1% between July and September (the third quarter). This comes after it shrunk 0.1% between April and June (the second quarter).

It blames that on very sharp increases in prices, especially for energy, with people's incomes falling after adjusting for rising prices.

Inflation (the amount prices are rising) will rise to just under 11% in October, the Bank predicts, up from its already high level above 9%.

What is happening around the world?


Other economies are also struggling, with the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook carrying the title "Gloomy and more uncertain".

It highlights downturns in China and Russia, alongside higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and Europe.

This is partly blamed on Russia's war in Ukraine, which has increased energy prices and food prices.

There are also continuing effects from Covid19.

The US and other major economies are also currently struggling


How could a recession affect me?


Some people may lose their jobs, or find it harder to get promotions, or pay rises big enough to allow them to cope with increases in prices.

Graduates and school leavers could find a first job harder to get.

However, the pain of a recession is typically not felt equally across society, and inequality can increase.

Benefit recipients and those with fixed incomes are particularly likely to struggle.

What can be done?


When the economy is struggling to grow at the same time as there is high inflation there is a situation called stagflation, which is very difficult to solve.

Usually, the Bank of England - which is independent of government - would cut interest rates if the country was going into a recession. However, it has just raised them again because prices are rising so fast.

Similarly, there is a debate going on as to whether Prime Minister Liz Truss should cut taxes to stimulate the economy and combat inflation.

How long have recent recessions been?


The recession in 2020 only lasted for six months, although the 19.4% contraction in the UK economy between April and June was the largest on record.

The one before that started in 2008 due to the financial crisis and went on for five quarters.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
UK Prime minister, Mr. Keir Starmer, has stated that any peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine "MUST" include a US security guarantee to deter Russian aggression
×