London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

After dangling the possibility of a mini-lockdown to break coronavirus's chain of transmission, Boris Johnson has opted for a much softer strategy.

The new Covid restrictions for England - which allow pubs and restaurants to remain open and households to continue mixing - have been met by scientists with responses ranging from praise to despair.

Dame Anne Johnson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said it was essential to act quickly to stop the growth in the epidemic.

She is "pleased" to see the government acting now, and says the change in messaging may be enough to change the virus's course.

But there are concerns that it won't- and if it doesn't in the next week or so, she says, decisions to implement stricter rules would need to be made very quickly.

"We have to find out whether this is working very fast," she said.

Stop the virus in its tracks?


If you look at the transmission of the virus alone, it's clear that the stricter the lockdown, the better. Scientists in this camp fear the new measures are "too little, too late".

Government adviser Prof John Edmunds told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the new measures had not gone "anywhere near far enough".

"We have to put stringent measures in place and it's really important that we [do so] as fast as possible. If we don't then the epidemic doubles, and doubles again. And then it doubles again and so on.

Prof Edmunds believes tighter curbs will happen across the UK "at some point but it will be too late again... and then we'll have the worst of both worlds". At that stage, in order to "slow the epidemic and bring it back down again", restrictions will have to be harder and stay in place for longer, he said.

But Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said if controlling the epidemic was the only important thing, "we'd go back to the situation in the last week of March". The downside, he said, would be depriving our children of another six months of their education.

"We need to steer a course that minimises economy and educational harms while suppressing the virus as much as possible," he said.

He says that the new measures are unlikely to be enough to bring the epidemic back into decline, though they may make a dent in transmission.

"Is this going to control the virus so it doesn't keep on increasing? Very clearly no," he said. "But the question is, will it make it increase more slowly?"

What's uncertain is how much cases will rise by, and whether protecting vulnerable people will prove possible.

Prioritising jobs - and schools


Prof Carl Heneghan at the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine goes further.

Before the new restrictions were published, Prof Heneghan jointly signed a letter to the prime minister describing the idea of suppressing coronavirus as "increasingly unfeasible".

And, he said, it was leading to "significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits".

Instead, Prof Heneghan believes it's time to control the spread rather than suppress it, and accept that cases will rise.

Crucially, he's not disagreeing with his colleagues on the science here. His comments accept a stricter lockdown would bring down cases, at least for a while. And looser restrictions would allow them to rise. But he believes the goal now is to "minimise social disruption" while managing the virus.

If the government rushes into "more measures," he says, "we'll talk ourselves back into a lockdown which, for a whole society, is hugely disruptive".

What about the NHS?


All along, one of the big motivations for keeping cases low has been the need to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. In spring, this meant closing down non-Covid services to prioritise fighting the virus and preventing the spread of infection.

But another fear soon emerged - that the harm from missed cancer operations, screenings and other types of care could offset the benefits of lockdown. Now, doctors' bodies are calling for restrictions to keep cases low, this time in order to also keep other services running.

The Royal College of Surgeons of England said it was essential surgery continued through the winter, unlike during the first coronavirus peak. Its president, Prof Neil Mortensen, said: "The prime minister was right yesterday to stress the importance of protecting the most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals.

"Thankfully, surgery has been able to safely start up again in many parts of the UK... [and] we must keep surgery going safely through the winter months, or tens of thousands will die from other preventable causes," he said.

"So it's a shared responsibility to help keep Covid rates low."

But the British Medical Association's chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul called on government to go further.

While it was "encouraging that the government has, at last, recognised the need for more stringent measures to control the virus's spread" he said, there were a "a number of further actions which the government could take to prevent a second peak," including stopping an unlimited number of households mixing.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
Global Critical Mineral Alliances Expand as Western Nations Move to Counter Chinese Supply Dominance
United States Imposes Fifty Percent Tariffs on Mexican Steel and Aluminum Ahead of Trade Pact Review
European Union and China Head Toward Major Trade Conflict Over Clean Technology Exports
United States Economic Growth Severely Downgraded to One Point Six Percent as Stagflation Fears Mount
World Health Organization Warns Central African Ebola Epidemic is Outpacing Containment Efforts
United States Treasury Department Conditions Sanctions Relief on Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Air Defenses Intercept and Destroy United States Military Drone Over Bushehr Province
Iranian Armed Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles Toward Unspecified Targets Prompting Regional Condemnation
United Nations Secretary-General Warns Global Order Facing Highest Level of Conflict Since 1945
Israel Issues Sweeping Evacuation Orders in Southern Lebanon Amid Intensified Hezbollah Conflict
Russia Announces Systemic Military Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Defense and Energy Infrastructure
United States and Iranian Negotiators Reach Draft Agreement to Extend Ceasefire and Resume Nuclear Talks
United Nations Security Council Deeply Divided Over United States Capture of Venezuelan President
US and Iran Exchange Direct Military Strikes Amid Fragile Gulf Ceasefire
World Health Organization Warns of Catastrophic Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo
Russia Threatens New Wave of Strikes on Ukrainian Infrastructure and Embassies
Scientists Warn Atlantic Ocean Currents Could Collapse Faster Than Projected
Anthropic Reaches $900 Billion Valuation in Historic AI Funding Round
Washington Imposes Crippling Sanctions on Iranian Maritime Authority
Japan and the Philippines Initiate Strategic Intelligence-Sharing Pact
Microsoft Deploys Autonomous Computer-Using AI Agents to Global Markets
Anthropic Secures $45 Billion Compute Infrastructure Agreement With SpaceX
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Resigns Amid Administration Shakeup
Micron Technology Crosses Trillion-Dollar Valuation Amid Unprecedented Hardware Demand
Canada and Germany Finalize Historic Long-Term LNG Export Agreement
China Expands International Travel Restrictions on Domestic AI Researchers
Japan Approves Sweeping Overhaul of National Intelligence Apparatus
Global Airlines Scramble Logistics as Middle East Airspace Remains Fractured
Japan's Naphtha Imports Plunge 47 Percent Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
Global Crude Prices Retreat Below $96 as Gulf Tensions Momentarily Ease
Generative AI Outperforms Human Baselines in Landmark Global Creativity Study
NASA Partners With Private Aerospace to Unveil Permanent Lunar Base Architecture
South Korean Equity Markets Surge on Next-Generation Memory Chip Frenzy
×