London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, May 13, 2026

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

After dangling the possibility of a mini-lockdown to break coronavirus's chain of transmission, Boris Johnson has opted for a much softer strategy.

The new Covid restrictions for England - which allow pubs and restaurants to remain open and households to continue mixing - have been met by scientists with responses ranging from praise to despair.

Dame Anne Johnson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said it was essential to act quickly to stop the growth in the epidemic.

She is "pleased" to see the government acting now, and says the change in messaging may be enough to change the virus's course.

But there are concerns that it won't- and if it doesn't in the next week or so, she says, decisions to implement stricter rules would need to be made very quickly.

"We have to find out whether this is working very fast," she said.

Stop the virus in its tracks?


If you look at the transmission of the virus alone, it's clear that the stricter the lockdown, the better. Scientists in this camp fear the new measures are "too little, too late".

Government adviser Prof John Edmunds told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the new measures had not gone "anywhere near far enough".

"We have to put stringent measures in place and it's really important that we [do so] as fast as possible. If we don't then the epidemic doubles, and doubles again. And then it doubles again and so on.

Prof Edmunds believes tighter curbs will happen across the UK "at some point but it will be too late again... and then we'll have the worst of both worlds". At that stage, in order to "slow the epidemic and bring it back down again", restrictions will have to be harder and stay in place for longer, he said.

But Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said if controlling the epidemic was the only important thing, "we'd go back to the situation in the last week of March". The downside, he said, would be depriving our children of another six months of their education.

"We need to steer a course that minimises economy and educational harms while suppressing the virus as much as possible," he said.

He says that the new measures are unlikely to be enough to bring the epidemic back into decline, though they may make a dent in transmission.

"Is this going to control the virus so it doesn't keep on increasing? Very clearly no," he said. "But the question is, will it make it increase more slowly?"

What's uncertain is how much cases will rise by, and whether protecting vulnerable people will prove possible.

Prioritising jobs - and schools


Prof Carl Heneghan at the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine goes further.

Before the new restrictions were published, Prof Heneghan jointly signed a letter to the prime minister describing the idea of suppressing coronavirus as "increasingly unfeasible".

And, he said, it was leading to "significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits".

Instead, Prof Heneghan believes it's time to control the spread rather than suppress it, and accept that cases will rise.

Crucially, he's not disagreeing with his colleagues on the science here. His comments accept a stricter lockdown would bring down cases, at least for a while. And looser restrictions would allow them to rise. But he believes the goal now is to "minimise social disruption" while managing the virus.

If the government rushes into "more measures," he says, "we'll talk ourselves back into a lockdown which, for a whole society, is hugely disruptive".

What about the NHS?


All along, one of the big motivations for keeping cases low has been the need to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. In spring, this meant closing down non-Covid services to prioritise fighting the virus and preventing the spread of infection.

But another fear soon emerged - that the harm from missed cancer operations, screenings and other types of care could offset the benefits of lockdown. Now, doctors' bodies are calling for restrictions to keep cases low, this time in order to also keep other services running.

The Royal College of Surgeons of England said it was essential surgery continued through the winter, unlike during the first coronavirus peak. Its president, Prof Neil Mortensen, said: "The prime minister was right yesterday to stress the importance of protecting the most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals.

"Thankfully, surgery has been able to safely start up again in many parts of the UK... [and] we must keep surgery going safely through the winter months, or tens of thousands will die from other preventable causes," he said.

"So it's a shared responsibility to help keep Covid rates low."

But the British Medical Association's chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul called on government to go further.

While it was "encouraging that the government has, at last, recognised the need for more stringent measures to control the virus's spread" he said, there were a "a number of further actions which the government could take to prevent a second peak," including stopping an unlimited number of households mixing.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The Great Western Exit: Why Best Citizens Are Fleeing the Rich World [PODCAST]
The New Robber Barons of Intelligence: Are AI Bosses More Powerful Than Rockefeller?
The End of the Old Order [Podcast]
Britain’s Democracy Is Now a Costume
The AI Gold Rush Is Coming for America’s Last Open Spaces [Podcast]
The Pentagon’s AI Squeeze: Eight Tech Giants Get In, Anthropic Gets Shut Out [Podcast]
The War Map: Professor Jiang’s Dark Theory of Iran, Trump, China, Russia, Israel, and the Coming Global Shock [Podcast]
Labour Is No Longer a National Party [Podcast]
AI Isn’t Stealing Your Job. It’s Dismantling It Piece by Piece.
Lawyers vs Engineers: Why China Builds While America Litigates [Podcast]
Churchill’s Glass: The Drunk, the Doctor, and the Myth Britain Refuses to Sober Up From
Apple issues an unusual warning: this is how your iPhone can be hacked without you doing anything
Kennedy’s Quiet War on Antidepressants Sparks Alarm Across America’s Medical Establishment
The Met Gala Meets the Age of Billionaire Backlash
Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Crosses Hormuz via Iran-Controlled Route
Gunfire Disrupts White House Correspondents’ Dinner as Trump Is Evacuated
A Leak, a King, and a Fracturing Alliance
Inside the Gates Foundation Turmoil: Layoffs, Scrutiny, and the Cost of Reputational Risk
UK Biobank Breach Exposes Health Data of 500,000, Listed for Sale on Chinese Platform
KPMG Cuts Around 10% of US Audit Partners After Failed Exit Push
French Police Probe Suspected Weather-Data Tampering After Unusual Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperatures
CATL Unveils Revolutionary EV Battery Tech: 1000 km Range and 7-Minute Charging Ahead of Beijing Auto Show
Crypto Scammers Capitalize on Maritime Chaos Near the Strait of Hormuz: A Rising Threat to Shipping Companies
Changi Airport: How Singapore Engineered the World’s Most Efficient Travel Experience
Power Dynamics: Apple’s Leadership Shakeup, Geopolitical Risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe's Energy Strategy Amidst Global Challenges
Apple's Leadership Transition: Can New CEO John Ternus Navigate AI Challenges and Geopolitical Pressures?
Italy’s €100K Tax Gambit: Europe’s Soft Power Tax Haven
News Roundup
Microsoft lost 2.5 millions users (French government) to Linux
Privacy Problems in Microsoft Windows OS
News roundup
Péter András Magyar and the Strategic Reset of Hungary
Hungary After the Landslide — A Strategic Reset in Europe
Meghan Markle Plans Exclusive Women-Focused Retreat During Australia Visit
Starmer and Trump Hold Strategic Talks on Securing Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Unofficial Australia Visit by Prince Harry and Meghan Expected to Stir Tensions with Royal Circles
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
UK Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Momentum and Renewed Focus on Diplomacy
UK to Hold Further Strategic Talks on Strait of Hormuz Security
Starmer Voices Frustration as Global Tensions Drive Up UK Energy Costs
UK Students Voice Concern Over Proposal for Automatic Military Draft Registration
Rising Volatility Drives Uncertainty in UK Fuel and Petrol Prices
UK Moves to Deploy ‘Skyhammer’ Anti-Drone System to Strengthen Airspace Defense
New Analysis Explores UK Budget Mechanics in ‘Behind the Blue’ Feature
Man Arrested After Four Die in Channel Crossing Tragedy
UK Tightens Immigration Framework with New Sponsor Rules and Fee Increases
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
×