London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

What do scientists think of the PM's Covid-19 plan?

After dangling the possibility of a mini-lockdown to break coronavirus's chain of transmission, Boris Johnson has opted for a much softer strategy.

The new Covid restrictions for England - which allow pubs and restaurants to remain open and households to continue mixing - have been met by scientists with responses ranging from praise to despair.

Dame Anne Johnson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said it was essential to act quickly to stop the growth in the epidemic.

She is "pleased" to see the government acting now, and says the change in messaging may be enough to change the virus's course.

But there are concerns that it won't- and if it doesn't in the next week or so, she says, decisions to implement stricter rules would need to be made very quickly.

"We have to find out whether this is working very fast," she said.

Stop the virus in its tracks?


If you look at the transmission of the virus alone, it's clear that the stricter the lockdown, the better. Scientists in this camp fear the new measures are "too little, too late".

Government adviser Prof John Edmunds told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the new measures had not gone "anywhere near far enough".

"We have to put stringent measures in place and it's really important that we [do so] as fast as possible. If we don't then the epidemic doubles, and doubles again. And then it doubles again and so on.

Prof Edmunds believes tighter curbs will happen across the UK "at some point but it will be too late again... and then we'll have the worst of both worlds". At that stage, in order to "slow the epidemic and bring it back down again", restrictions will have to be harder and stay in place for longer, he said.

But Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said if controlling the epidemic was the only important thing, "we'd go back to the situation in the last week of March". The downside, he said, would be depriving our children of another six months of their education.

"We need to steer a course that minimises economy and educational harms while suppressing the virus as much as possible," he said.

He says that the new measures are unlikely to be enough to bring the epidemic back into decline, though they may make a dent in transmission.

"Is this going to control the virus so it doesn't keep on increasing? Very clearly no," he said. "But the question is, will it make it increase more slowly?"

What's uncertain is how much cases will rise by, and whether protecting vulnerable people will prove possible.

Prioritising jobs - and schools


Prof Carl Heneghan at the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine goes further.

Before the new restrictions were published, Prof Heneghan jointly signed a letter to the prime minister describing the idea of suppressing coronavirus as "increasingly unfeasible".

And, he said, it was leading to "significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits".

Instead, Prof Heneghan believes it's time to control the spread rather than suppress it, and accept that cases will rise.

Crucially, he's not disagreeing with his colleagues on the science here. His comments accept a stricter lockdown would bring down cases, at least for a while. And looser restrictions would allow them to rise. But he believes the goal now is to "minimise social disruption" while managing the virus.

If the government rushes into "more measures," he says, "we'll talk ourselves back into a lockdown which, for a whole society, is hugely disruptive".

What about the NHS?


All along, one of the big motivations for keeping cases low has been the need to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. In spring, this meant closing down non-Covid services to prioritise fighting the virus and preventing the spread of infection.

But another fear soon emerged - that the harm from missed cancer operations, screenings and other types of care could offset the benefits of lockdown. Now, doctors' bodies are calling for restrictions to keep cases low, this time in order to also keep other services running.

The Royal College of Surgeons of England said it was essential surgery continued through the winter, unlike during the first coronavirus peak. Its president, Prof Neil Mortensen, said: "The prime minister was right yesterday to stress the importance of protecting the most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals.

"Thankfully, surgery has been able to safely start up again in many parts of the UK... [and] we must keep surgery going safely through the winter months, or tens of thousands will die from other preventable causes," he said.

"So it's a shared responsibility to help keep Covid rates low."

But the British Medical Association's chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul called on government to go further.

While it was "encouraging that the government has, at last, recognised the need for more stringent measures to control the virus's spread" he said, there were a "a number of further actions which the government could take to prevent a second peak," including stopping an unlimited number of households mixing.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
×