London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 03, 2025

War in Ukraine: Change of emphasis or admission of failure by Moscow?

War in Ukraine: Change of emphasis or admission of failure by Moscow?

Is the Russian military having to change its plans? Perhaps even reduce the scale of Moscow's ambitions in Ukraine?

It's probably too early to tell, but there's definitely a shift in emphasis.

A top Russian general - Sergey Rudskoy - says the "first stage" of what President Vladimir Putin calls Russia's "special military operation" has been mostly accomplished and that Russian forces will now concentrate on "the complete liberation of the Donbas".

This is likely to mean a more concerted effort to push beyond the "line of contact" that separates Ukrainian government-held territory in the east of the country from the Russian-backed separatist "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The pace of Russia's advance in other areas of Ukraine remains glacial. Its forces have been pushed back from positions around the capital, Kyiv, and are said to have started digging defensive positions to avoid losing more or prepare for some kind of pause.

It's probably way too early to conclude that Russia has given up on capturing Kyiv, but Western officials say that Russia continues to experience setback after setback.

On Friday, they said Russia had lost another general - the seventh - and that morale was at rock bottom in some units.


They believe General Rudskoy's announcement implies that Moscow knows that its ambitious pre-war strategy has failed.

"Russia is recognising that it can't pursue its operations on multiple axes simultaneously," one official said.

As many as 10 new Russian battalion tactical groups are being generated, officials say, and are heading for the Donbas.

Even before the war began last month, they voiced the fear that Russia would make a concerted effort to encircle and envelop Ukraine's best fighting units which make up the Joint Forces Operation (JFO), stationed along the line of contact.

Retreat may not mean tame ambitions


A renewed push now could see Russian troops pushing out into so-far unconquered areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, possibly aiming to link up with forces moving south from Kharkiv and Izyum.

And if Russia can succeed in finally pacifying the port of Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, then other forces could move north and complete the encirclement of the JFO.

Some of these objectives still seem out of reach. Mariupol's defenders are putting up a ferocious fight, preventing Russia from fully achieving another of its pre-war ambitions - a land bridge from the Crimean Peninsula to the Donbas.

But if Moscow has concluded that it makes more sense to concentrate, for the time being, on achieving one objective at a time, it's likely to concentrate its firepower, especially from the air.

The Ukrainian military, disciplined and motivated as it is, will need all the help it can get to withstand the pressure.

"I hope that's where the Western supply of arms will make a significant contribution to Ukrainian forces," one Western official said.

If the coming days do see a shift of focus to the Donbas, that doesn't yet mean that Moscow has abandoned its wider ambitions.

"We don't see a re-evaluation of the invasion as a whole," a senior US defence official said.

Russian advances in the east


A survivor told the BBC: "We were sprayed with broken glass and concrete"


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Political Dispute Escalates Between Trump and Musk
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
US Senate Votes to Remove AI Regulation Moratorium from Domestic Policy Bill
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
Jury Deliberations in Diddy Trial Yield Partial Verdict in Serious Criminal Charges
House Oversight Committee Subpoenas Former Jill Biden Aide Amid Investigation into Alleged Concealment of President Biden's Cognitive Health
King Charles Plans Significant Role for Prince Harry in Coronation
Two Chinese Nationals Arrested for Espionage Activities Against U.S. Navy
Amazon Reaches Major Automation Milestone with Over One Million Robots
Extreme Heat Wave Sweeps Across Europe, Hitting Record Temperatures
Meta Announces Formation of Ambitious AI Unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs
Robots Compete in Football Tournament in China Amid Injuries
Trump Administration Considers Withdrawal of Funding for Hospitals Providing Gender Treatment to Minors
Texas Enacts Law Allowing Gold and Silver Transactions
China Unveils Miniature Insect-Like Surveillance Drone
OpenAI Secures Multimillion-Dollar AI Contracts with Pentagon, India, and Grab
Marc Marquez Claims Victory at Dutch Grand Prix Amidst Family Misfortune
Germany Votes to Suspend Family Reunification for Asylum Seekers
Elon Musk Critiques Senate Budget Proposal Over Job Losses and Strategic Risks
Los Angeles Riots ended with Federal Investigations into Funding
Budapest Pride Parade Draws 200,000 Participants Amid Government Ban
Southern Europe Experiences Extreme Heat
Xiaomi's YU7 SUV Launch Garners Record Pre-Orders Amid Market Challenges
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez's Lavish Wedding in Venice
Russia Launches Largest Air Assault on Ukraine Since Invasion
Education Secretary Announces Overhaul of Complaints System Amid Rising Parental Grievances
Massive Anti-Government Protests Erupt in Belgrade
Trump Ends Trade Talks with Canada Over Digital Services Tax
UK Government Softens Welfare Reform Plans Amid Labour Party Rebellion
Labour Faces Rebellion Over Disability Benefit Reforms Ahead of Key Vote
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez Host Lavish Wedding in Venice Amid Protests
Trump Asserts Readiness for Further Strikes on Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions
North Korea to Open New Beach Resort to Boost Tourism Economy
UK Labour Party Faces Internal Tensions Over Welfare Reforms
Andrew Cuomo Hints at Potential November Comeback Amid Democratic Primary Results
Curtis Sliwa Champions His Vision for New York City Amid Rising Crime Concerns
Federal Reserve Proposes Changes to Capital Rule Affecting Major Banks
EU TO HUNGARY: LET THEM PRIDE OR PREP FOR SHADE. ORBÁN TO EU: STAY IN YOUR LANE AND FIX YOUR OWN MESS.
Trump Escalates Criticism of Media Over Iran Strike Coverage
Trump Announces Upcoming US-Iran Meeting Amid Controversial Airstrikes
Trump Moves to Reshape Middle East Following Israel-Iran Conflict
Big Four Accounting Firms Fined in Exam Cheating Scandal
NATO Members Agree to 5% Defense Spending Target by 2035
Australia's Star Casino Secures $195 Million Rescue Package Amid Challenges
UK to Enhance Nuclear Capabilities with Acquisition of F-35A Fighter Jets
×