London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026

Vaccine shortage holds back developing world as rich economies roar ahead

Vaccine shortage holds back developing world as rich economies roar ahead

The economic outlook for rich countries is getting better while developing economies are falling behind.
That's according to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. The organization on Tuesday confirmed its prediction that the global economy will expand by 6% this year. But while growth estimates for countries like the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada have improved since the IMF's previous report in April, expectations for India and countries in southeast Asia have dropped back.

The IMF said the divide largely comes down to differences in vaccination rates.

"Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising Covid death tolls," the group said in its report.

Close to 40% of the population in advanced economies is fully vaccinated, according to the IMF. In emerging market economies, the vaccination rate is 11%, while low-income countries lag even further behind.

The IMF now predicts that the US economy will grow by 7% this year, 0.6 percentage points higher than in its previous forecast. The United Kingdom is also expected to expand output by 7%, an upward revision of 1.7 percentage points. The 19 countries that use the euro are set to experience 4.6% growth, a 0.2 percentage boost, while Canada is on track for 6.3% growth, a 1.3 percentage point upgrade.

Meanwhile, China is set to log growth of 8.1%, a slight downward revision amid fears that its recovery could be losing steam. Projections for economic growth in India received a sizable downgrade following a recent wave of Covid-19 infections. The country's economy is now expected to grow by 9.5% this year, compared to a 12.5% projection in April.

"Faster-than-expected vaccination rates and return to normalcy have led to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and renewed waves of Covid-19 cases in some countries, notably India, have led to downgrades," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a blog post.

The IMF cautioned that different levels of policy support from governments could exacerbate the split.

"We are seeing continued sizable fiscal support in advanced economies with $4.6 trillion of announced pandemic-related measures available in 2021 and beyond," Gopinath said. "On the other hand, in emerging market and developing economies most measures expired in 2020 and they are looking to rebuild fiscal buffers. Some emerging markets like Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Russia and Turkey have also begun raising monetary policy rates to head off upward price pressures."

However, even those countries on more solid footing aren't in the clear, the IMF warned. It pointed to the risks posed by "highly infectious virus variants," as well as a shock to financial markets, particularly in the United States, if central banks pull economic support sooner than expected.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Security Adviser Viewed US-Iran Nuclear Deal as Within Reach Before Sudden Escalation
UK Prime Minister Urges Continued Focus on Ukraine Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
UK Introduces New Safeguards to Shield Lenders from Bank Run Risks
UK Promotional Products Market Surpasses £1.3 Billion as Demand Strengthens in 2025
Reeves Pushes for Deeper UK-EU Economic Ties to Revive Growth
UK Security Adviser Saw No Imminent Iranian Nuclear Threat Days Before War Erupted
France Signals Warm Welcome for UK Return to EU Single Market Amid Renewed Cooperation Talks
UK Defence Official Criticises Boeing Over Delays to E-7 Wedgetail Programme
UK Urged to Secure Quantum Talent as Minister Warns Against Repeating AI Setbacks
UK Mayors Set to Gain New Spending Powers Under Reeves’ Fiscal Devolution Plan
Western Allies Urge Restraint as Israel Weighs Expanded Ground Operation in Lebanon
Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad’ Future Without Stronger Allied Support in Iran Conflict
UK Minister Says Britain Not Bound to Support Every Demand From U.S. President
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
UK Set to Introduce Steel Tariffs of Up to 50 Percent in New Industrial Strategy
European Governments Decline Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Fears Over Iran Conflict Weigh on UK Consumer Confidence
Starmer Says UK Working With Allies on Hormuz Shipping Plan After Trump Raises Pressure
Iran War and Energy Shock Shake Britain’s Economy and Political Debate
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
Prince William Honors Princess Diana with Mother’s Day Tribute
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
×