London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Feb 20, 2026

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

Growth in pay in Britain - which the Bank of England is watching closely as it weighs up whether to pause its run of interest rate hikes next week - lost pace in the three months to January, official data showed on Tuesday.

Basic pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 6.5% compared with 6.7% in the three months to December, representing the first slowdown in the that measure since late 2021.

Total pay grew by an annual 5.7% in the November-to-January period, slowing from 6.0% in the previous figures and the weakest increase since the three months to July last year, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected basic and total earnings to rise by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Britain's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in the three months to January, close to its lowest in almost five decades, the data also showed.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected the rate to rise to 3.8%.


The BoE is expected to raise borrowing costs on March 23 by a further quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% although investors have cut their bets on such a move sharply after the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank.

Interest rate futures showed investors were putting the chance of the BoE pausing its rate hikes next week at about 40% at 0830 GMT while a quarter of a percentage point increase in borrowing costs was seen as a 60% possibility.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said while the ONS data showed a slowing of pay growth, more recent measures showed little change recently.

"Coupled with stronger-than-expected GDP data, this should provide enough evidence for the Bank to raise rates when it meets next week," Selfin said.

But Martin Beck, with forecasters the EY ITEM Club, said a BoE rates pause was now likely after 10 back-to-back hikes.

"These moves follow other developments, including an unexpectedly significant decline in the services sector inflation in January," Beck said.

Sterling rose against the dollar and the euro shortly after the data before falling back.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce measures in his budget statement on Wednesday that will seek to get more people into work, easing the inflationary pressure in the labour market.

"The jobs market remains strong, but inflation remains too high," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the data was published, a day ahead of his budget speech.

"Tomorrow at the budget, I will set out how we will go further to bear down on inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy, including by helping more people back into work."

Tuesday's data showed earnings were further diminished by an inflation rate that stood above 10% in January.

The ONS said basic pay, when adjusted for inflation using the consumer prices index, fell by 3.5%, one of the largest falls since records began in 2001. Total pay fell by 4.4% in real terms, the biggest drop since early 2009.


There were some signs of a further easing of the tightness in the labour market with the economic inactivity rate - measuring people out of work and not looking for it - falling by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3%, driven mostly by young people.

Vacancies decreased for the eighth time in a row in the three months to February, falling by 51,000 from the previous three months to 1.124 million.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
Nordic Fracture: How Criminal Scandals and Toxic Ties are Dismantling the Norwegian Crown
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
A Lunar New Year event in Taiwan briefly came to a halt after a temple official standing beside President Lai Ching‑te suddenly vomited, splashing Lai’s clothing
Jillian Michaels reveals Bill Gates’ $55 million investment in mRNA vaccines turned into over $1 billion.
Ex-Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's arrested
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Four Chagos Islanders Establish Permanent Settlement on Atoll
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
UK Inflation Slows Sharply in January, Strengthening Case for Bank of England Rate Cut
Hide the truth, fake the facts, pretend the opposite, Britain is as usual
France President Macron says Free Speech is Bull Sh!t
Viktor Orbán getting massive praise for keeping Hungary safe, rich and migrant-free!
UK Inflation Falls to Ten-Month Low, Markets Anticipate Interest Rate Cut
UK House Prices Climb 2.4% in December as Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation
BAE Systems Predicts Sustained Expansion as Defence Orders Reach Record High
Pro-Palestine Activists Cleared of Burglary Charges Over Break-In at UK Israeli Arms Facility
Former Reform UK Councillors Form New Local Group Amid Party Fragmentation
Reform UK Pledges to Retain Britain’s Budget Watchdog as It Seeks Broader Economic Credibility
Miliband Defends UK-California Clean Energy Pact After Sharp Criticism by Trump
University of Kentucky to Host 2026 Summer Camps Fair Connecting Families with Local Programmes
UK Police Forces Assess Claims Jeffrey Epstein Used Stansted Airport Flights in Trafficking Network
UK-Focused Equity ETF FLGB Climbs to Fresh 52-Week Peak on Strong Market Sentiment
Trump Warns UK’s Chagos Islands Agreement Is a “Big Mistake” Amid Strategic Security Debate
Trump Urges UK to Retain Sovereignty Over Diego Garcia Amid Strategic Concerns
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
Rupert Lowe wanted to deport rape gangs and the communities who protected them
Reform UK Appoints Former Conservative Minister Robert Jenrick as Finance Chief
UK Unemployment Rises to Highest in Nearly Five Years as Labour Market Weakens
×