London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 28, 2026

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

Growth in pay in Britain - which the Bank of England is watching closely as it weighs up whether to pause its run of interest rate hikes next week - lost pace in the three months to January, official data showed on Tuesday.

Basic pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 6.5% compared with 6.7% in the three months to December, representing the first slowdown in the that measure since late 2021.

Total pay grew by an annual 5.7% in the November-to-January period, slowing from 6.0% in the previous figures and the weakest increase since the three months to July last year, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected basic and total earnings to rise by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Britain's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in the three months to January, close to its lowest in almost five decades, the data also showed.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected the rate to rise to 3.8%.


The BoE is expected to raise borrowing costs on March 23 by a further quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% although investors have cut their bets on such a move sharply after the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank.

Interest rate futures showed investors were putting the chance of the BoE pausing its rate hikes next week at about 40% at 0830 GMT while a quarter of a percentage point increase in borrowing costs was seen as a 60% possibility.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said while the ONS data showed a slowing of pay growth, more recent measures showed little change recently.

"Coupled with stronger-than-expected GDP data, this should provide enough evidence for the Bank to raise rates when it meets next week," Selfin said.

But Martin Beck, with forecasters the EY ITEM Club, said a BoE rates pause was now likely after 10 back-to-back hikes.

"These moves follow other developments, including an unexpectedly significant decline in the services sector inflation in January," Beck said.

Sterling rose against the dollar and the euro shortly after the data before falling back.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce measures in his budget statement on Wednesday that will seek to get more people into work, easing the inflationary pressure in the labour market.

"The jobs market remains strong, but inflation remains too high," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the data was published, a day ahead of his budget speech.

"Tomorrow at the budget, I will set out how we will go further to bear down on inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy, including by helping more people back into work."

Tuesday's data showed earnings were further diminished by an inflation rate that stood above 10% in January.

The ONS said basic pay, when adjusted for inflation using the consumer prices index, fell by 3.5%, one of the largest falls since records began in 2001. Total pay fell by 4.4% in real terms, the biggest drop since early 2009.


There were some signs of a further easing of the tightness in the labour market with the economic inactivity rate - measuring people out of work and not looking for it - falling by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3%, driven mostly by young people.

Vacancies decreased for the eighth time in a row in the three months to February, falling by 51,000 from the previous three months to 1.124 million.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Bill Clinton Denies Knowing Woman in Hot Tub Photo During Closed-Door Epstein Deposition
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton Testifies on Ties to Jeffrey Epstein Before Congressional Oversight Committee
Dyson Reaches Settlement in Landmark UK Forced Labour Case
Barclays and Jefferies Shares Fall After UK Mortgage Lender Collapse Rekindles Credit Market Concerns
Play Exploring Donald Trump’s Rise to Power by ‘Lehman Trilogy’ Author to Premiere in the UK
Man Arrested After Churchill Statue Defaced in Central London
Keir Starmer Faces Political Setback as Labour Finishes Third in High-Profile By-Election
UK Assisted Dying Bill Set to Fall Short in Parliament as Regional Initiatives Gain Ground
UK Defence Ministry Clarifies Position After Reports of Imminent Helicopter Contract
Independent Left-Wing Plumber Secures Shock Victory as Greens Surge in UK By-Election
Reform UK Refers Alleged ‘Family Voting’ Incidents in By-Election to Police
United Kingdom Temporarily Withdraws Embassy Staff from Iran Amid Heightened Regional Tensions
UK Government Reaches Framework Agreement on Release of Mandelson Vetting Files
UK Police Contracts With Israeli Surveillance Firms Spark Debate Over Ethics and Oversight
United Airlines Passenger Hears Cockpit Conversations After Accessing In-Flight Audio Channel
Spain to Conduct Border Checks on Gibraltar Arrivals Under New Post-Brexit Framework
Engie Shares Jump After $14 Billion Agreement to Acquire UK Power Grid Assets
BNP Paribas Overtakes Goldman Sachs in UK Investment Banking League Tables
Geothermal Project to Power Ten Thousand Homes Marks UK Renewable Energy Milestone
UK Visa Grants Drop Nineteen Percent in 2025 as Migration Controls Tighten
Barclays and Jefferies Among Banks Exposed to Collapse of UK Mortgage Lender MFS
UK Asylum Applications Edge Down in 2025 Despite Rise in Small Boat Crossings
Jefferies Reports Significant Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender MFS
FTSE 100 Reaches Fresh Record Highs as Major Share Buybacks and Earnings Lift London Stocks
So, what's happened is, I think, government policy, not just under Labour, but under the Conservatives as well, has driven a lot of small landlords out of business.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
From fears of AI-fuelled unemployment to Big Tech's record investment, this is AI Weekly.
Apple just dropped iOS 26.4.
US Lawmakers Seek Briefing from UK Over Reported Encryption Order Directed at Apple
UK Business Secretary Calls on EU to Remove Trade Barriers Hindering Growth
Legal Pathways for Removing Prince Andrew from Britain’s Line of Succession Examined
PM Netanyahu welcome India PM Narendra Modi to Israel
Shadow Diplomacy: How Harry and Meghan’s Jordan Trip Undermines the Monarchy
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, comments on immigration in the UK.
Bill Gates, the UN and the WEF are attempting to construct "a giant digital gulag for all of humanity" via digital ID, CBDCs and vaccine passport infrastructure.
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Downing Street’s Veteran Deception Scandal
UK HealthCare Expands ‘Food as Health’ Initiative Statewide to Tackle Chronic Illness in Kentucky
Leonardo Chief Says UK Set to Decide on New Medium Helicopter Programme
UK Slows Chagos Islands Agreement After Concerns Raised in Washington
European and UK Stock Markets Reach Fresh Highs as Banks and Miners Lead Rally
UK Government Insists Chagos Islands Negotiations Continue After Minister’s ‘Pause’ Remark
No Confirmed Deal for Engie to Acquire UK Power Networks Amid Market Speculation
UK Reaffirms Updated Entry Requirements for Travellers as of February 25, 2026
General Atlantic to sell equity stake in ByteDance, valuing the company at $550 billion
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Secures Pledge from China for Greater Imports of Quality Goods
Lord Mandelson Condemns Arrest as Driven by ‘Baseless Suggestion’ He Would Flee Abroad
Former UK Ambassador Released on Bail Following Arrest in Epstein-Linked Investigation
×