London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

Growth in pay in Britain - which the Bank of England is watching closely as it weighs up whether to pause its run of interest rate hikes next week - lost pace in the three months to January, official data showed on Tuesday.

Basic pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 6.5% compared with 6.7% in the three months to December, representing the first slowdown in the that measure since late 2021.

Total pay grew by an annual 5.7% in the November-to-January period, slowing from 6.0% in the previous figures and the weakest increase since the three months to July last year, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected basic and total earnings to rise by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Britain's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in the three months to January, close to its lowest in almost five decades, the data also showed.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected the rate to rise to 3.8%.


The BoE is expected to raise borrowing costs on March 23 by a further quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% although investors have cut their bets on such a move sharply after the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank.

Interest rate futures showed investors were putting the chance of the BoE pausing its rate hikes next week at about 40% at 0830 GMT while a quarter of a percentage point increase in borrowing costs was seen as a 60% possibility.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said while the ONS data showed a slowing of pay growth, more recent measures showed little change recently.

"Coupled with stronger-than-expected GDP data, this should provide enough evidence for the Bank to raise rates when it meets next week," Selfin said.

But Martin Beck, with forecasters the EY ITEM Club, said a BoE rates pause was now likely after 10 back-to-back hikes.

"These moves follow other developments, including an unexpectedly significant decline in the services sector inflation in January," Beck said.

Sterling rose against the dollar and the euro shortly after the data before falling back.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce measures in his budget statement on Wednesday that will seek to get more people into work, easing the inflationary pressure in the labour market.

"The jobs market remains strong, but inflation remains too high," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the data was published, a day ahead of his budget speech.

"Tomorrow at the budget, I will set out how we will go further to bear down on inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy, including by helping more people back into work."

Tuesday's data showed earnings were further diminished by an inflation rate that stood above 10% in January.

The ONS said basic pay, when adjusted for inflation using the consumer prices index, fell by 3.5%, one of the largest falls since records began in 2001. Total pay fell by 4.4% in real terms, the biggest drop since early 2009.


There were some signs of a further easing of the tightness in the labour market with the economic inactivity rate - measuring people out of work and not looking for it - falling by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3%, driven mostly by young people.

Vacancies decreased for the eighth time in a row in the three months to February, falling by 51,000 from the previous three months to 1.124 million.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Caribbean Reparations Commission Seeks ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Justice from UK
EU Insists UK Must Contribute Financially for Access to Electricity Market and Broader Ties
UK to Outlaw Live-Event Ticket Resales Above Face Value
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
German Entertainment Icons Alice and Ellen Kessler Die Together at Age 89
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
Two-thirds of UK nurses report working while unwell amid staffing crisis
Britain to Reform Human-Rights Laws in Sweeping Asylum Policy Overhaul
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
×