London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

UK pay growth slows as Bank of England mulls rates pause

Growth in pay in Britain - which the Bank of England is watching closely as it weighs up whether to pause its run of interest rate hikes next week - lost pace in the three months to January, official data showed on Tuesday.

Basic pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 6.5% compared with 6.7% in the three months to December, representing the first slowdown in the that measure since late 2021.

Total pay grew by an annual 5.7% in the November-to-January period, slowing from 6.0% in the previous figures and the weakest increase since the three months to July last year, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected basic and total earnings to rise by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Britain's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in the three months to January, close to its lowest in almost five decades, the data also showed.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected the rate to rise to 3.8%.


The BoE is expected to raise borrowing costs on March 23 by a further quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% although investors have cut their bets on such a move sharply after the collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank.

Interest rate futures showed investors were putting the chance of the BoE pausing its rate hikes next week at about 40% at 0830 GMT while a quarter of a percentage point increase in borrowing costs was seen as a 60% possibility.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said while the ONS data showed a slowing of pay growth, more recent measures showed little change recently.

"Coupled with stronger-than-expected GDP data, this should provide enough evidence for the Bank to raise rates when it meets next week," Selfin said.

But Martin Beck, with forecasters the EY ITEM Club, said a BoE rates pause was now likely after 10 back-to-back hikes.

"These moves follow other developments, including an unexpectedly significant decline in the services sector inflation in January," Beck said.

Sterling rose against the dollar and the euro shortly after the data before falling back.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is expected to announce measures in his budget statement on Wednesday that will seek to get more people into work, easing the inflationary pressure in the labour market.

"The jobs market remains strong, but inflation remains too high," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said after the data was published, a day ahead of his budget speech.

"Tomorrow at the budget, I will set out how we will go further to bear down on inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy, including by helping more people back into work."

Tuesday's data showed earnings were further diminished by an inflation rate that stood above 10% in January.

The ONS said basic pay, when adjusted for inflation using the consumer prices index, fell by 3.5%, one of the largest falls since records began in 2001. Total pay fell by 4.4% in real terms, the biggest drop since early 2009.


There were some signs of a further easing of the tightness in the labour market with the economic inactivity rate - measuring people out of work and not looking for it - falling by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3%, driven mostly by young people.

Vacancies decreased for the eighth time in a row in the three months to February, falling by 51,000 from the previous three months to 1.124 million.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Northern Ireland Secures Additional Infrastructure Funding From UK Treasury
Wales Approves Port Investment Plans to Support Green Energy Supply Chains
UK Financial Regulator Simplifies Stock Market Rules to Attract More Listings
UK Reports Decline in Small Boat Crossings Across the English Channel
UK Government Creates Emergency Support Fund for Financially Pressured Universities
Scottish Government Launches Economic Strategy Focused on Innovation and Renewable Industries
UK Expands Sustainable Farming Incentives to Support Environmental Measures
UK Government Introduces New Neighbourhood Policing Standards Across England and Wales
UK Competition Regulator Opens Review of Artificial Intelligence Foundation Models
UK Deepens Indo-Pacific Security Cooperation After Talks With Singapore and Japan
UK Announces Rail Modernisation Plan for Northern England With New Infrastructure Funding
UK Government Updates Housing Planning Rules to Accelerate Residential Construction
UK Approves Major North Sea Offshore Wind Project to Support Clean Power Goals
UK Health Service Begins Major Digital Upgrade to Cut Hospital Waiting Times
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates Steady as UK Inflation Pressures Remain Persistent
UK Universities and Industry Expand Space and Defense Research Partnerships
House of Lords Approves Social Housing Bill Amendments on Shared Ownership Rights
House of Lords Advances Civil Aviation Bill With New Passenger Protection Measures
UK Government Suspends Tariffs on Fertilizer and Food Imports to Reduce Costs
Russell Group Universities Support New UK Business Department Focused on Innovation
UK Parliament Opens Inquiry Into Transport Barriers Facing Young Jobseekers
Home Builders Federation Calls for Lower Costs as New UK Government Sets Housing Priorities
Andy Burnham Meets UK Devolved Leaders to Strengthen Regional Cooperation
Andy Burnham Holds First International Calls With Trump, Macron, and Zelenskyy
Andy Burnham Reshuffles Cabinet With John Healey Appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer
Andy Burnham Government Removes VAT From Electricity Bills to Cut Household Costs
Andy Burnham Becomes United Kingdom Prime Minister After Sir Keir Starmer Resigns
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
US Gasoline Returns to $4 as Renewed Iran Fighting Disrupts Oil Flows
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Orders 50% Tariffs on Selected Canadian Imports
Pentagon Discloses Nearly 100 US Troop Injuries During Renewed Iran Fighting
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
US Judge Pauses Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery Merger Over Antitrust Concerns
NHS England Faces Growing Retention Pressure Among Younger Midwives
UK Data Centre Expansion Faces Water and Grid Capacity Challenges
UK Defence Shares Rise After John Healey Appointment and Continued Spending Commitments
OECD Urges UK Government to Review Pension Triple Lock to Protect Public Finances
Bank of England Keeps Cautious Approach as Energy Costs Threaten Inflation Progress
County Councils Call for Wider Devolution and Long-Term Social Care Funding Reform
IMF Urges UK Government to Maintain Fiscal Discipline as Growth Forecast Slows
Russian Warship Holds Live-Fire Exercises Near UK Coast as Royal Navy Monitors Activity
Mitie Agrees Three Point One Billion Pound Takeover by OCS in Another Blow to London Listings
JPMorgan Chase Warns Bank Levies Could Hit UK Growth and Drive Capital Away
UK Unemployment Holds at Four Point Nine Percent as Labour Market Shows Resilience
UK Government Borrowing Falls Below Forecasts as Treasury Receives Early Fiscal Boost
John Healey Cuts VAT on Household Electricity Bills After Cancelling National Digital ID Scheme
Andy Burnham Forms New Labour Government With Ten-Year National Renewal Plan
EU Imposes Record €550 Million Digital Services Fine on AliExpress
UK Publishes Updated Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions Data
×