London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Mar 16, 2026

UK inflation jumps above 5% as BoE considers rate rise

UK inflation jumps above 5% as BoE considers rate rise

British inflation surged to its highest in more than 10 years in November, jumping to 5.1% and potentially unsettling the Bank of England a day before it announces whether it is raising interest rates for the first time since COVID-19 struck.
Price pressure from a broad range of consumer goods and services - but especially petrol, clothing and footwear - lay behind the increase in inflation to its highest since September 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The reading exceeded all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a rise of 4.7% from October's 4.2%.

Last month the BoE, which announces its December policy decision on Thursday, had predicted consumer price inflation - just 0.7% at the start of 2021- would peak at around 5% next April, when regulated household energy bills increase.

Inflation has soared globally this year due to higher energy prices and COVID-related supply-chain bottlenecks. In Britain, post-Brexit trade and migration barriers have also caused problems.

The BoE has said interest rates will almost certainly need to rise to bring down inflation pressures, but held off on a widely expected move last month due to uncertainty about the impact of the end of the government's job furlough programme.

Many economists still expect the BoE to stay on hold again on Thursday, because of the potential impact on economic growth of rapidly rising cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, despite the inflation surprise.

"Under usual circumstances, it would be consistent with an imminent rate rise," said HSBC economist Chris Hare. On balance, Omicron headwinds pointed to no rise on Thursday. "But the decision is not a straightforward one by any means," he added.

Shoppers walk down Oxford Street, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in London, Britain, December 13, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo


INFLATION IN ACTION

The International Monetary Fund - which predicts British inflation will hit a 30-year high of 5.5% next year - on Tuesday urged the BoE not to succumb to "inaction bias".

However, any immediate rise in borrowing costs would do little to curb a short-term rise in inflation.

Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it could reach 6% next April but fall rapidly thereafter and undershoot the BoE's 2% target in 2023.

Market reaction to Wednesday's data was initially muted. Sterling rose modestly against the dollar and the euro , and interest-rate sensitive two-year gilt yields hit a one-week high.

Interest rate futures now price in a 63% chance of a rate rise on Thursday - compared with below 50% on Wednesday, and see a slightly faster pace of tightening in 2022. ,

A rate rise to 0.25% from 0.1% was already fully priced in for February, which would make the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to increase interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wednesday's data showed core consumer price inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose to 4.0% from October's 3.4%, its highest since 1992. Fuel prices rose 28.5%.

The retail price inflation (RPI) measure - used for inflation-linked government bonds and wage-bargaining but which the ONS says is no longer accurate - rose to 7.1% from 6.0%, its highest since March 1991.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
Prince William Honors Princess Diana with Mother’s Day Tribute
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
×