London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025

UK inflation jumps above 5% as BoE considers rate rise

UK inflation jumps above 5% as BoE considers rate rise

British inflation surged to its highest in more than 10 years in November, jumping to 5.1% and potentially unsettling the Bank of England a day before it announces whether it is raising interest rates for the first time since COVID-19 struck.
Price pressure from a broad range of consumer goods and services - but especially petrol, clothing and footwear - lay behind the increase in inflation to its highest since September 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The reading exceeded all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a rise of 4.7% from October's 4.2%.

Last month the BoE, which announces its December policy decision on Thursday, had predicted consumer price inflation - just 0.7% at the start of 2021- would peak at around 5% next April, when regulated household energy bills increase.

Inflation has soared globally this year due to higher energy prices and COVID-related supply-chain bottlenecks. In Britain, post-Brexit trade and migration barriers have also caused problems.

The BoE has said interest rates will almost certainly need to rise to bring down inflation pressures, but held off on a widely expected move last month due to uncertainty about the impact of the end of the government's job furlough programme.

Many economists still expect the BoE to stay on hold again on Thursday, because of the potential impact on economic growth of rapidly rising cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, despite the inflation surprise.

"Under usual circumstances, it would be consistent with an imminent rate rise," said HSBC economist Chris Hare. On balance, Omicron headwinds pointed to no rise on Thursday. "But the decision is not a straightforward one by any means," he added.

Shoppers walk down Oxford Street, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in London, Britain, December 13, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo


INFLATION IN ACTION

The International Monetary Fund - which predicts British inflation will hit a 30-year high of 5.5% next year - on Tuesday urged the BoE not to succumb to "inaction bias".

However, any immediate rise in borrowing costs would do little to curb a short-term rise in inflation.

Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it could reach 6% next April but fall rapidly thereafter and undershoot the BoE's 2% target in 2023.

Market reaction to Wednesday's data was initially muted. Sterling rose modestly against the dollar and the euro , and interest-rate sensitive two-year gilt yields hit a one-week high.

Interest rate futures now price in a 63% chance of a rate rise on Thursday - compared with below 50% on Wednesday, and see a slightly faster pace of tightening in 2022. ,

A rate rise to 0.25% from 0.1% was already fully priced in for February, which would make the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to increase interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wednesday's data showed core consumer price inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose to 4.0% from October's 3.4%, its highest since 1992. Fuel prices rose 28.5%.

The retail price inflation (RPI) measure - used for inflation-linked government bonds and wage-bargaining but which the ONS says is no longer accurate - rose to 7.1% from 6.0%, its highest since March 1991.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
Dick Cheney, Former U.S. Vice President, Dies at 84
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
×