An influential group of more than thirty food system experts has warned that the United Kingdom’s food supply is perilously exposed to major disruptions that could, under certain conditions, escalate into widespread social unrest.

The analysis, published in the journal Sustainability, identifies chronic structural weaknesses — including a high dependency on imports, fragile just-in-time supply chains, climate-driven production pressures and persistent low incomes — which have combined to make the system a “tinderbox” poised for acute crisis if struck by a significant shock.

The researchers mapped how triggers such as extreme weather events, cyber-attacks on critical food infrastructure and international conflict could create cascading failures across food production and distribution networks.

They said such shocks would hit supply chains hard, drive up food prices and deepen food insecurity, especially for low-income households, potentially eroding public trust in institutions and contributing to social tension or unrest.

A majority of the experts consulted — about eighty percent — judged that large-scale violence arising from a food crisis is plausible within the next fifty years, and roughly forty percent said it could occur within the next decade, based on scenarios in which more than thirty thousand people might be injured during a year of food protests or riots.

Recent events have highlighted the fragility of the system.

In 2025, major UK retailers such as Marks & Spencer and the Co-operative experienced cyber-attacks that disrupted operations, while global droughts and the continuing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contributed to international price inflation and supply instability.

Meanwhile, one in seven UK families reported food insecurity in 2025, underscoring ongoing stress on access to affordable, nutritious food.

To address these vulnerabilities, the report’s authors advocate a suite of resilience-building measures.

These include expanding the diversity of domestically produced food, promoting regenerative and climate-adaptive farming practices, bolstering energy security, and establishing emergency support systems such as cash assistance for the most vulnerable during crises.

They also recommend creating a national forum on food security that includes the voices of marginalised communities most affected by food insecurity.

Lead author Professor Sarah Bridle of the University of York emphasised that the stability of the food system is a matter of national security and that understanding how it might respond under extreme pressure is essential to preventing worst-case outcomes.

Professor Aled Jones of Anglia Ruskin University urged policymakers to adopt a long-term, coordinated approach across government and industry to strengthen resilience.

A government spokesperson responded that food security is regarded as a critical component of national security, pointing to investments in technology, climate-resilient crops and regulatory support for farmers aimed at boosting production and supply stability.