A parliamentary by-election in the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton has transformed what was once a safe seat for the governing Labour Party into a fiercely contested three-way battle, with the Green Party and Reform UK both making significant inroads against Labour’s traditional dominance.

The vote, scheduled for Thursday twenty-sixth February, was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne and has rapidly evolved into one of the most closely watched electoral tests in recent British political history.

Historically, Labour has held the area with comfortable majorities stretching back decades, but polling and bookmakers now place both the Greens and Reform UK on competitive footing amid declining support for Labour and rising dissatisfaction among voters.

Polling data from recent elections suggests Reform UK and the Greens both performed strongly in the 2024 general election in the expanded constituency boundaries, finishing well ahead of many competitors and signalling the depth of the challenge for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

The Green Party, with candidate Hannah Spencer, has emerged as a prominent challenger, capitalising on shifting voter loyalties in urban Gorton and among progressive and younger demographics.

Bookmakers currently favour the Greens in several predictions, reflecting their strong local campaign and message focused on community issues, cost of living and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics.

Reform UK, led locally by candidate Matt Goodwin and supported by prominent national figures, is also mounting a vigorous campaign, particularly in Denton and among voters frustrated with public services, rising costs and long-term perceptions of neglect.

Analysts have highlighted that a split in the left-leaning vote between Labour and the Greens could allow Reform UK to “come through the middle” and potentially secure victory in a historic upset.

Labour, which has dominated the seat since well before the Second World War and secured more than fifty per cent of the vote in the 2024 general election, now finds itself under intense pressure.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer made a discreet visit to the constituency in a bid to shore up support, and senior party figures have campaigned vigorously for the Labour candidate, Councillor Angeliki Stogia, warning that a loss could have wider political consequences for the party nationally.

The race has been complicated by internal Labour decisions, including the party’s choice to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing, a move analysts say has inadvertently opened space for both the Greens and Reform UK to gain momentum.

As polling day approaches, political strategists describe Gorton and Denton as emblematic of broader fractures in the UK’s political landscape, where traditional two-party dominance is challenged by insurgent movements from both the left and right.

Voters in the constituency are poised to deliver a result that could signal profound shifts in British politics, with implications for Labour’s national strategy and the rising influence of alternative parties across the country.