London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Oct 10, 2026

UK economy to be worst hit of all G7 nations, OECD report says

UK economy to be worst hit of all G7 nations, OECD report says

The UK economy is to suffer the biggest hit of all the G7 nations next year, a report has forecast.
The economy is to contract more than any of the other six countries that form the group of the world's largest industrialised democracies, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

GDP, a measure of economic output, is to reduce 0.4% next year and grow 0.2% in 2024. This is better than previous OECD predictions which has been for the economy to remain static.

The only other G7 economy to contract next year is Germany's. which will experience a smaller contraction of 0.3%.

Growth will be small in the majority of the G7 nations. Italy's GDP will grow 0.2%, the US will see 0.5%, France will experience 0.6% while Canada and Japan will see rises of 1% and 1.8% respectively.

Of the G20 countries the UK economy will perform the third worst, behind Russia and Sweden with 5.6% and 0.6% contractions respectively expected.

The government's energy price guarantee scheme will increase inflation, requiring hiked interest rates which will result in higher borrowing costs, the organisation said in its economic outlook report,

The untargeted nature of the scheme is the problem, the report said. Under the scheme, all domestic electricity users are to be paid £400 to reduce the impact of sky-high energy costs.

More targeted measures, directed to those most in need, would lower the overall cost to the state, and better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation, the OECD said.

Inflation forecasts

The rate of inflation rose to 10.1% in September, according to official figures, due to rising prices and the fallout from the mini-budget.

Numerous economic forecasts are echoed by the OECD, which said risks to the UK economy are considerable and "tilted towards the downside".

Inflation will peak at around 10% late this year due to high energy prices and continuing labour and goods supply shortages, before gradually declining to 2.7% by the end of 2024, the report said.

Consumption is expected to slow due to the cost of living crisis, but this will be lessened by a planned 9.7% increase in the minimum wage and the usual uprating of welfare benefits and pensions in April next year.

There was a caveat attached, as the report said higher-than-expected goods and energy prices could weigh on consumption and further depress growth.

Equally a prolonged period of labour shortages could force businesses into a more permanent reduction of operating capacity or push up wage inflation up.

Energy reduction and net zero

While the OECD said financial support measures are needed to help with high energy prices, there should also be incentives for energy reduction.

The government also came in for criticism over its action to reach net-zero emissions.

The policies in place are "not yet sufficient" to reach net-zero target, the report said. Accelerating progress towards net-zero is fundamental to enhance the UK's energy security and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, the report added.

More investment can be driven by the government "being clearer about its approach to the transition to a net-zero economy and developing an economy-wide plan with specific deadlines, policies and priorities".
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
UK Government Drops Plan to Suspend Jury Trials in England and Wales
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Markets Watch November
Two Iranian Nationals Charged Over Alleged Plot Targeting Manchester Jewish Community
UK Fiscal Headroom Halves to £11 Billion Ahead of Budget, EY Warns
US Bomber Withdrawal From RAF Fairford Prompts UK Security Review
Sarah Wakfer Appointed Chair of Northern Ireland’s Health and Care Regulator
Scotland Housing Completions Fall to 11-Year Low Amid National Shortage
×