London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

UK economy narrowly avoids recession despite December hit from strikes

UK economy narrowly avoids recession despite December hit from strikes

The ONS says a lack of Premier League football because of the World Cup contributed to a contraction in output during the final month of 2022.

The economy narrowly avoided recession in the second half of last year, according to early official figures, despite growth going into a sharp reverse in December partly due to the impact of strikes and lack of Premier League football.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that output between October and December was flat at 0%.

A negative figure would have met the technical definition of a recession because the economy contracted over the previous three months to September as the cost of living crisis took a heavy toll on consumer spending.

Economic activity has stalled largely as a result of energy-led price pressures on households and businesses - with the Bank of England even predicting in November last year that the economy was already likely in recession.

The narrow miss, which is subject to revision by the ONS when more data becomes available, reflects an economy that is stagnating at best in the face of a continuing squeeze on spending power.

Output in December fell by 0.5% compared to the previous month, the ONS said, with contributions to the decline also coming from some early winter snow disruption and strikes including the Royal Mail dispute.

Businesses had reported a drop in orders due to delivery uncertainties across the month.

The report also pointed to a negative impact from the World Cup, having credited strong domestic bar sales at match screenings for lifting output during November.

Premier League football was suspended throughout much of December because of the World Cup in Qatar

ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said of the performance: "The economy contracted sharply in December meaning, overall, there was no growth in the economy over the last three months of 2022.

"In December public services were hit by fewer operations and GP visits, partly due to the impact of strikes, as well as notably lower school attendance.

"Meanwhile, the break in Premier League football for the World Cup and postal strikes also caused a slowdown.

"However, these falls were partially offset by a strong month for lawyers, growth in car sales and the cold snap increasing energy generation.

"Across 2022 as a whole, the economy grew 4%.

"Despite recent squeezes in household incomes, restaurants, bars and travel agents had a strong year. Meanwhile, health and education also began to recover from the effects of the pandemic".

Economists widely believe that recession during the first half of this year is inevitable, with the International Monetary Fund predicting last month that the UK would be the worst performer in the developed world including sanctions-hit Russia.

However, others have argued that a recession could be avoided despite continued pressure on budgets from inflation.

The government's critics are urging the chancellor to use his spring budget next month to boost activity, accusing him of taking a miserly approach to the public finances.

Unions, for example, argue that public sector pay settlements to avert further strikes would contribute to growth but the Treasury, and Bank of England, is worried that inflation-busting pay deals will stoke inflation.

Jeremy Hunt said in response to the ONS figures: "The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared.

"However, we are not out of the woods yet, particularly when it comes to inflation.

"If we stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, we can be confident of having amongst the best prospects for growth of anywhere in Europe."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
×