London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026

UK economy grew slightly and avoided recession, revised official figures confirm

UK economy grew slightly and avoided recession, revised official figures confirm

The original estimate for GDP in the fourth quarter of last year had shown zero growth, so all eyes were on this morning's revised figure to confirm the UK had not fallen into a recession.
Revised figures have confirmed that the UK economy avoided recession in the second half of last year, posting 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter.

The original estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) between October and November, released in mid-February, had shown zero growth.

A recession is generally defined in the UK as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, and the economy had already contracted 0.2% in the third quarter.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said: "The economy performed a little more strongly in the latter half of last year than previously estimated, with later data showing telecommunications, construction and manufacturing all faring better than initially thought in the latest quarter.

"Households saved more in the last quarter, with their finances boosted by the government's energy bill support scheme.

"Meanwhile, the UK's balance of payments deficit with the rest of the world narrowed, driven by increased foreign earnings by UK companies, particularly in the energy sector."

The dominant services sector grew by 0.1%, boosted by a jump in nearly 11% for travel agents.

Manufacturing was up by 0.5%, driven by the pharmaceutical sector, and construction grew 1.3%.

'We still think the economy will slip into a recession this year'

The cost of living crisis has taken a heavy toll on consumer spending in recent months, with inflation remaining in double digits.

Updated predictions last week from the Bank of England, which had forecast that the economy entered recession in the second half of last year, ruled out the likelihood of a recession in 2023.

Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said the upward revisions to the GDP figures for the third and fourth quarters showed that high inflation took a slightly smaller toll on the economy than previously thought.

"But with around two-thirds of the drag on real activity from higher rates yet to be felt, we still think the economy will slip into a recession this year," she said.

'Underlying resilience'

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told reporters that the revised GDP figure showed there is "underlying resilience" in the UK economy.

Mr Hunt acknowledged, however, that many people across the country are "facing real pressure", with inflation remaining above 10%.

He said: "That's why we will continue to take the difficult decisions necessary to bring down inflation caused by what's happened in Ukraine.

"That is the way we will get back to healthy growth and relieve the pressure on families."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
GB News Faces Regulatory Complaints Over On-Air Remarks on ‘Genocide’ Claims
UK Signals Expanded Support for Gulf Allies as Iranian Attacks Intensify Regional Threats
UK VAT Decision Opens Path for Potential Refunds to U.S. Biopharma Firms
UK and Canada Advance ‘Middle Power’ Strategy to Shape Global Influence Beyond Superpowers
Google Explores AI Opt-Out Features in Search to Address UK Regulatory Concerns
Google Explores AI Opt-Out Features in Search to Address UK Regulatory Concerns
UK Fuel Prices Poised to Surge as Global Tensions Drive Oil Market Volatility
UK Fuel Prices Poised to Surge as Global Tensions Drive Oil Market Volatility
UK Holds Back on Hormuz Escort Mission While Continuing Talks with Allies
TrumpRx Pricing Platform Faces Scrutiny as Some Medicines Remain Costlier Than in the UK
UK, Netherlands and Finland Explore Joint Defence Investment Bank to Boost Military Capability
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak in Kent Raises Alarm as Cases Surge and Emergency Response Expands
UK Security Adviser Viewed US-Iran Nuclear Deal as Within Reach Before Sudden Escalation
UK Prime Minister Urges Continued Focus on Ukraine Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
UK Introduces New Safeguards to Shield Lenders from Bank Run Risks
UK Promotional Products Market Surpasses £1.3 Billion as Demand Strengthens in 2025
Reeves Pushes for Deeper UK-EU Economic Ties to Revive Growth
UK Security Adviser Saw No Imminent Iranian Nuclear Threat Days Before War Erupted
France Signals Warm Welcome for UK Return to EU Single Market Amid Renewed Cooperation Talks
UK Defence Official Criticises Boeing Over Delays to E-7 Wedgetail Programme
UK Urged to Secure Quantum Talent as Minister Warns Against Repeating AI Setbacks
UK Mayors Set to Gain New Spending Powers Under Reeves’ Fiscal Devolution Plan
Western Allies Urge Restraint as Israel Weighs Expanded Ground Operation in Lebanon
Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad’ Future Without Stronger Allied Support in Iran Conflict
UK Minister Says Britain Not Bound to Support Every Demand From U.S. President
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
Starmer Tells Trump Britain Will Not Be Drawn Into Wider Iran War
UK Set to Introduce Steel Tariffs of Up to 50 Percent in New Industrial Strategy
European Governments Decline Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Fears Over Iran Conflict Weigh on UK Consumer Confidence
Starmer Says UK Working With Allies on Hormuz Shipping Plan After Trump Raises Pressure
Iran War and Energy Shock Shake Britain’s Economy and Political Debate
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak at UK University Leaves Two Dead and Several Seriously Ill
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
Prince William Honors Princess Diana with Mother’s Day Tribute
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
×