London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 06, 2026

UK economy grew slightly and avoided recession, revised official figures confirm

UK economy grew slightly and avoided recession, revised official figures confirm

The original estimate for GDP in the fourth quarter of last year had shown zero growth, so all eyes were on this morning's revised figure to confirm the UK had not fallen into a recession.
Revised figures have confirmed that the UK economy avoided recession in the second half of last year, posting 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter.

The original estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) between October and November, released in mid-February, had shown zero growth.

A recession is generally defined in the UK as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, and the economy had already contracted 0.2% in the third quarter.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said: "The economy performed a little more strongly in the latter half of last year than previously estimated, with later data showing telecommunications, construction and manufacturing all faring better than initially thought in the latest quarter.

"Households saved more in the last quarter, with their finances boosted by the government's energy bill support scheme.

"Meanwhile, the UK's balance of payments deficit with the rest of the world narrowed, driven by increased foreign earnings by UK companies, particularly in the energy sector."

The dominant services sector grew by 0.1%, boosted by a jump in nearly 11% for travel agents.

Manufacturing was up by 0.5%, driven by the pharmaceutical sector, and construction grew 1.3%.

'We still think the economy will slip into a recession this year'

The cost of living crisis has taken a heavy toll on consumer spending in recent months, with inflation remaining in double digits.

Updated predictions last week from the Bank of England, which had forecast that the economy entered recession in the second half of last year, ruled out the likelihood of a recession in 2023.

Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said the upward revisions to the GDP figures for the third and fourth quarters showed that high inflation took a slightly smaller toll on the economy than previously thought.

"But with around two-thirds of the drag on real activity from higher rates yet to be felt, we still think the economy will slip into a recession this year," she said.

'Underlying resilience'

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told reporters that the revised GDP figure showed there is "underlying resilience" in the UK economy.

Mr Hunt acknowledged, however, that many people across the country are "facing real pressure", with inflation remaining above 10%.

He said: "That's why we will continue to take the difficult decisions necessary to bring down inflation caused by what's happened in Ukraine.

"That is the way we will get back to healthy growth and relieve the pressure on families."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
NHS Maternity Reform Expands Central Oversight After Critical National Review
Dover Border Warnings Highlight Post-Brexit Pressure on Cross-Channel Trade
Private Nuclear Consortium Advances £35 Billion Small Reactor Strategy in UK
UK Labour Leadership Signals Shift Toward Reindustrialisation and Regional Power
House of Lords Debates Rail Nationalisation Bill to Create Great British Railways
Scottish Affairs Committee Expands Inquiry Into SNP Financial Conduct
Evri Launches £1.2 Million Defamation Case Against BBC Over Panorama Investigation
Port of Dover Warns of Border Delays as EU Entry-Exit System Looms
Nigel Farage Referred to Standards Watchdog Over Alleged Undeclared Benefits
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over Claimed AI Datacentre Investment After FOI Findings
UK and India Finalise Trade Agreement Rules Ahead of Mid-July Implementation
UK Government Establishes National Maternity Commissioner After Major Review of NHS Care Failures
Private Consortium Plans £35 Billion UK Nuclear Programme Targeting Small Modular Reactor Rollout
Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Reindustrialisation and Devolution Plan as Leadership Transition to UK Premiership Advances
Morocco and France Advance as 2026 FIFA World Cup Enters Quarterfinals.
Historic 2026 Tour de France Opens in Barcelona With Revamped Team Time Trial.
Global Mergers and Acquisitions Approach $4 Trillion Defying Geopolitical Tumult.
Negotiators Advance 20-Point Framework for Gaza Ceasefire and Demilitarization.
OECD Warns Middle East Conflict Will Depress Global Economic Growth.
Ukrainian Drones Strike Major Oil Terminal in St. Petersburg.
World Meteorological Organization Issues Urgent Alert Over Rapidly Intensifying El Niño.
United States Commemorates 250th Anniversary With Diplomatic Summits and Global Flotilla.
Iran Begins Days-Long Funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei Amid Strait of Hormuz Standoff.
Technology giant reports surging carbon emissions driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure demands.
Artificial intelligence adoption accelerates workforce reductions across the technology and financial sectors.
Global technology and financial conglomerates collaborate to launch a new stablecoin standard.
United States regulators lift export restrictions on a major frontier artificial intelligence model.
Royal Society Exhibition Highlights Growing Focus on Public Trust in Science
Energy Costs and Supply Chain Risks Continue to Shape UK Business Strategy
Rapid Rise in Artificial Intelligence Adoption Reshapes UK Corporate Operations, ONS Says
UK Businesses Turn Defensive as Economic Outlook Weakens, Institute of Directors Data Shows
UK Government Faces Criticism Over Late Extension of Pub Hours for England Match
Inquest Continues Into Death of Noah Donohoe as Jury Deliberates Findings
Calls for Stronger Wildlife Attraction Safety Rules After Crocodile Enclosure Injury
City Fire Under Control After Major Blaze Sends Smoke Across Urban Area
Police Investigation Continues After Officer Killed During Road Closure Duties
Blackpool Hotel Fined £120,000 After Electric Shock Incident Involving Child
Whistleblowers Allege Delays in UK Special Educational Needs Support Services
Calls Grow for Improved Support for UK Armed Forces Personnel Facing Health Conditions
Rising UK Energy Price Cap Increase Prompts Wider Concerns Over Household Pressures
UK Businesses Remain Concerned Over Global Conflict Risks to Supply Chains, ONS Finds
Office for National Statistics Reports Rising Adoption of Artificial Intelligence Across UK Businesses
Institute of Directors Reports Deepening Pessimism in UK Business Confidence Index
England Prepare for World Cup Round of 16 Match Against Mexico in Mexico City
Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition Concludes in London After Week-Long Showcase of Research
Silverstone Hosts British Grand Prix as Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton Lead Home Crowd Expectations
Cornwall Van Dwellers Face Homelessness Risk as Council Tightens Enforcement
Police Investigate Stabbing of Iranian Journalist in London
Rare Copy of US Declaration of Independence Discovered in UK Archive
Department for Education Data Shows Persistent Literacy Gap Among Disadvantaged White Pupils
×